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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Er, ma gerd

Joe Tegtmeyer has revealed that the huge supply of Cybertrucks we've been seeing at GigaTexas are actually inflatables!



Then, once past the 4/1 segment we have the usual Monday drone report from GigaTexas.
Because it has been a little boring and slow today I'm sharing the link for anyone looking for something more interesting to watch. 😏
 
I tried FSD for the very first time, which happened to be the free one-month 12.3.3 trial delivered over this past weekend. I got mine on Easter Sunday.

Holy smokes, it's so good. After backing out and setting my nav for the nearby pet store, I tipped the stalk down and the car took over decisively, which was so weird for this first-time user. I'd previously watched a whole lot of video about FSD 12.2.x and 12.3.3 from the usual suspects, so I had an idea what I was in for. There I was, heart in my throat, vigilantly ready to intervene in FSD's 'assertive' mode.

FSD got me to the end of the housing tract for the first right turn into traffic. Sometimes this can be challenging with fast traffic coming from the left with a bit of a blind rise, but on Easter it was pretty light traffic. The car executed the turn safely and my confidence was increasing by the minute. FSD got me to the freeway, staying nicely in the lanes without being too far left or right, and without extraneous lane-changes. Braking was smooth and predictable. Acceleration was brisk at times but always felt appropriate, though it was more reserved when there wasn't as much room or need to accelerate. Acceleration on to the freeway was good, strong but reasonable and the car held flow of traffic nicely next to the slow lane. It accelerated on to the freeway much like I would when I'm not trying to feel some Gs for grins.

The change to the exit lane of the freeway was later than I would have done. FSD slotted me into a reasonable gap and then created a nice following distance after that. Overall, the drive was remarkable in how unremarkable it was. It really does feel human, replete with communication that we humans understand; creeping up slightly when it's time to go, letting other cars know that you're taking your turn at a stop, anticipating a pedestrian clearing the path forward, etc. This is also extremely nuanced behavior from FSD that inspires confidence.

On the way back from the pet store, FSD nosed slightly out of the shopping center and made a nice turn on to the surface street. No drama. The car decided to skip the freeway (happy for that) and the drive was so nice, relaxing, unremarkable. No interventions either way. I can see how it would be easy for people to let their guard down during routine driving, which in a way can be more stressful than driving depending on your neurotype. Despite all this, it felt like I'd hired a driver!

I'm extremely impressed, and I will likely subscribe to FSD in the future when I get my own Tesla Model 3 Performance again. I used my girlfriend's Model 3 for this test errand.

Once Wall Street gets wind of this in a few years there's gonna be mayhem! :D
 
My local Tesla center has over 200 cars in the lot. They are delivering only 23 cars today. They are not pushing hard. I would like deliveries to come in under 400k at this point and just stash 40k+ in inventory. Who cares? It's really a nothingburger, with the exception of this drawdown of Shanghai workdays. Q1 is always wah-wah, except for only one year. These quarterly deliveries are no longer the important narrative anyway; Energy & FSD are the new growth waves. It's about time Troy and others expand their analysis to be more inclusive of them. They are going to be forced to in no time now.

So you put a single data point from your center above that from people collecting data from all over the world 🥴?

Also, we´re not talking about Q1 being lower than Q4, but possibly lower than Q1 a year ago. But let´s wait for tomorrow to discuss the results and the meaning. Anyway, while energy is growing really quickly and will become as important as auto soon, last quarter and for the full year revenue was still less than 10% of auto revenue (1,438 vs 21,563 in Q4 2023). Relevant, but auto is still dominating so delivery numbers are what counts most for now.
 
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I'm sure this has been discussed at length, but hard to find in our discussion about PHEVs and San Francisco's climate so...we believe P&D will announce tomorrow morning, is that correct?

Yes, very likely before the market opens.

What is the consensus Street estimate for P&D tomorrow?

FactSet is at 457k.
The company compiled average (which added five bearish firms, likely to bring the average down) is at 440.7k. Martin noted that the median was around 431k (I read that as Martin trying to lower expectations even more).

So, it's all over the place this quarter.
 
I look forward to the day that Telsa stops giving quarterly P&D numbers and puts all the forecasters on you tube and X out of business ... the P&D is no longer needed SW, Services and Energy will take the company forward ... i think Apple did this and for one quarter there were a lot of complaints and noise ... now it is accepted ... they still make up FUD but it is completely FUD as far as i can tell

Why in the world would you want to have less granular information on the performance of a company you own stock in???
Only because others can spin them and turn them into FUD? Then no info at all would be a good solution?

So many posts here today contrary to my take of things :(.
 
Clearly. Me knowing or not knowing isn’t the point really. I maintain it’s odd for Tesla not to adjust inventory vehicle pricing by the same amount. It’s not like the inventory vehicles are old or used. It just rolled off the line without a buyer. Either demand warrants a price increase for all vehicles or it doesn't.
It’s not odd. It’s smart business. Ordering is ‘custom’. It’s what can we sell you tomorrow or next week or next month? There’s a ‘cost’ to that. That cost today is $1000 more than it was yesterday.

Inventory is what can I put in your hands ‘right now’ that we already built and is sitting close by to you that’s collecting dust.

Additionally, Tesla prices their ‘new custom’ cars per demand AND per their cost to make the car. IE., when costs rose due to Covid up went car prices, and when the supply chain mostly resorted itself down came costs, down came car prices.
 
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Some light humor before the all world ending Q1 P&D tomorrow :)

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Why in the world would you want to have less granular information on the performance of a company you own stock in???
Only because others can spin them and turn them into FUD? Then no info at all would be a good solution?

So many posts here today contrary to my take of things :(.
I suppose i was not fully clear in what i would like to see.....
because the shift to a SW business and energy business does not require me to know the vehicle P&D before the earnings call and all the noise leading up to and and after the P& D ... this allows 2 periods of manipulation of the stock price.. once at the P&D then again at earnings report/call

i still want the numbers just not at the end of the quarter .. in the earnings report as a long term investor the earnings report is good enough to track the quarterly progress of the company