Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jschwefel]

I see a lot of predictions of 4k CTs being delivered in Q1. That's probably better than many had at this point.

That will only grow from here.

4000 Cybertrucks in Q1 might be a stretch. FWIW, I pick up mine in Indy next week. VIN…385x.

Regardless and despite the disappointing P&D numbers this morning, I haven’t lost faith in Tesla. I do think the quarter was worse than it should have been. Current pricing and POS tax credit put the Model Y in direct “competition” with CRVs, RAV4s, Highlanders, Pilots and many other ICE SUVs. The people buying those vehicles are missed Tesla customers based on the hundreds of test drives I’ve given. Most people have no idea how safe, fun, convenient and affordable Teslas are. Word of mouth worked well when the company was small, but selling 2+ million cars a year is a different animal.

Anyway, I trust Tesla will fix this and re-establish its growth trajectory soon enough somehow. In the grand scheme of things this is just a bump in the road. The Cybertruck and FSD reinforce how transformative they are, and transformation takes time. Patience is key.

 

[NicoV]

You think that something might be up because ~3% of annual production is either in transit, waiting for delivery, or waiting to be purchased?

That number doesn't seem all that bad to me.

Also note that the cars en route from Shanghai to Europe are also inventory, and is 2 weeks longer en route nowadays compared to Q4. That alone may be 10K cars.

 

[Krugerrand]

Breathe, my friend, breathe. No one is attacking you.

Yet, you claim different directives for these people and people complaining about the accent. Not sure why your opinion is more valid.... this whole forum is filled with conjecture laced with some facts and damned statistics.

First of all, right here in this thread people have complained about his accent. That’s a fact. It’s also fact the two CFO’s are very different people and thusly would factually have different talents, abilities, experiences etc…

Secondly, the time period that Zach was CFO vs this time period with the new CFO is also factually different. Different macro, different world healthwise, different supply chainwise, different worldwide traumas, different Tesla business developmentwise, and so on.

None of that is opinion.

But you suggesting the current CFO lacks backbone and that that played a role in his hire is an opinion. And an egregious made up opinion.

 

[uscbucsfan]

4000 Cybertrucks in Q1 might be a stretch. FWIW, I pick up mine in Indy next week. VIN…385x.

Regardless and despite the disappointing P&D numbers this morning, I haven’t lost faith in Tesla. I do think the quarter was worse than it should have been. Current pricing and POS tax credit put the Model Y in direct “competition” with CRVs, RAV4s, Highlanders, Pilots and many other ICE SUVs. The people buying those vehicles are missed Tesla customers based on the hundreds of test drives I’ve given. Most people have no idea how safe, fun, convenient and affordable Teslas are. Word of mouth worked well when the company was small, but selling 2+ million cars a year is a different animal.

Anyway, I trust Tesla will fix this and re-establish its growth trajectory soon enough somehow. In the grand scheme of things this is just a bump in the road. The Cybertruck and FSD reinforce how transformative they are, and transformation takes time. Patience is key.

The first posted customer deliver was 11XX VIN, so if yours is one of the newest that would mean around 2700 CTs delivered in Q1.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I thought we already established megapacks aren't using the same cells as the cars now?

Maybe, and fair point, but IDK. Tesla knew of the slump in advance, so I'm thinking at least a shift in raw materials is possible.

 

[Krugerrand]

??? Lol.

BYD Q1 2024
-300,114 BEVs
-324,284 PHEVs

BYD Q1 2023
-264,647 BEVs
-283,267 PHEVs

So I'm not sure why you're trying to claim BYD didn't grow sales YoY. They did for both BEV and PHEV.

Maybe use that Google you mention before posting misinformation.

Made you look. But yes, original post was YoY not QoQ. My bad. Sincere apologies to you and the OP.

 

[Krugerrand]

So many demand shares to purchase. Merry Christmas to me.

Funny, every single past demand share over the YEARS is above water. Have always been above water, even when considering winter of 2022. Things that make you, hmmmm. Seems I can time the market at least once in a while.

 

[Knightshade]

Megapack 2.0 built in Lathrop using LFP just like MY RWD has been since Q323 Tesla Model Y RWD Returns to the US Market With a LFP Battery and Updated Price and M3 RWD has for some time now.

LFP is a chemistry- there's lots of different LFP cells.

Megapacks use prismatic LFPs specifically designed for Megapack 2

Not the same LFPs used in Teslas cars.

 

[Musskiah]

Every 50k cars per Q that subscribe to FSD ($600/3mos) yields a $30M rise in Services and Other Profit (S&OP) In Q4 2023 S&OP was $100M. If 166k FSDsub (10% conversion), S&OP doubles.

According to Q423 10Q: Tesla expects to realize $1.2B in Unrecognized Energy Rev (UER) in the next 4Qs, so $300M per Q on average. Not even taking into account that Megapack GWh Delivs are up 25% QoQ, the UER recognition will double TEProfits from Q423 (~$300M).

I'm not saying this WILL happen in Q1, but I wanted to illustrate how quickly margins will increase in both segments as these inevitabilities occur.

 

[2daMoon]

That said it’s very easy to pull up actual screenshots and quotes these days straight from the horse’s mouth which project a very specific narrative.

Yes, over the years I have always made it a point to pull up comments CEOs have made and opinions they hold about those things outside the realm of their business in order to comprehensively review before making any purchase decision.

It is time consuming, particularly so back before the internet.

Back then, if buying Japanese, or some other foreign brand, I'd have to hire a translator. I was so happy when Google Translate came online. With the hours saved, I was finally able to go back to working full time. But, I didn't sleep much, there was still a lot of CEO research to be done every time I wanted to buy something.

In the long run it has been well worth the effort to zoom in and know with certainty such detail as it has made such a difference to me and for my exhaustive method of choosing the right product only after knowing how the CEO feels about minutia in their personal life.

Once, when choosing a car, after all the other auto CEOs did not pass muster, I couldn't find a Yugoslavian translator to find out what the CEO thought about everything totally unrelated to their company and their car, and took a chance and bought that Yugo.

I should have looked harder to find a translator, I really should have.
/s

 

[Musskiah]

LFP is a chemistry- there's lots of different LFP cells.

Megapacks use prismatic LFPs specifically designed for Megapack 2

Not the same LFPs used in Teslas cars.

View attachment 1034710

Thank you, I stand corrected. I have left my post with an EDIT to credit your info.

 

[cliff harris]

Do your last three bullet points explain the 8.5% drop in deliveries?

I think they explain a drop in production. Its pretty hard to deliver cars at the same rate if production cant keep up. We have seen how happy Tesla is to drop prices if they want to boost demand, and prices are now going UP not down.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Lot of fresh meat for the ignore list. Must be bear season

 

[wipster]

Maybe car cameras should have something like our eyelids that can open and close to clean, de-ice and shade when needed.

But can it wink?

 

[Knightshade]

I think they explain a drop in production. Its pretty hard to deliver cars at the same rate if production cant keep up.

But production was almost 50,000 cars higher than deliveries. On top of an already high existing inventory which could've also been delivered since it was already IN inventory.

Also you listed Chinese new year as a production concern, despite it happening in all previous Q1s as well.

 

[2daMoon]

I think this was a very bad quarter for deliveries, that Tesla has produced more vehicles than they’ve sold for a while now, and that there are some sort of impediments to the growth story.

Then I provided an anecdotal sample of my personal experience with known Tesla customers leaving the brand because of a very specific factor.

Might be nothing.

Q1 is historically THE bad quarter of the year. This time there were curve balls thrown.

Perhaps, let's wait a year before we declare that a trend exists?

 

[Singuy]

There were 4 separate stop and start up of production lines this Q.

1. Chinese new years
2. Berlin Fire
3. Berlin red sea disruption
4. Model 3 Fremont production.

Every disruption creates more and more cars in transit vs available cars for sale. Production dropped by over 60k just from the disruption vs Q4, and then a bunch of cars, perhaps 20-50k of them were manufactured but couldn't make it to customer's hand as they were done near the tail end of the restart production ramp.

So we are probably talking about a 100k reduction in available deliverable cars vs Q4.

 

[elasalle]

In 1 months time what will be the take rate for FSD? — ( not that much)
.. but how many will find it convincing enough to buy more TSLA shares $$

 

[GhostSkater]

Matrix headlights are fricking amazing

At first was bad, dimmed zone not lined up with the traffic, then I realized the headlights were completely miss aimed

A quick jump to the service manual and a flat wall latter, and it is working perfectly, didn’t get flashed once (both kinds sadly), the dark zone is perfectly the other vehicles, no more, no less

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service.tesla.com

 

[2daMoon]

As a side note: those you surround yourself with are typically a reflection of yourself.

Sadly, this makes me a nobody...

but, they do often say "nobody is perfect" don't they?