Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Both Ross’ and Elon’s tweets need more context. Elon’s comment is obviously only applicable to the Chinese market where BYD sells almost all of its vehicles, and I’m not sure that is what Ross is referring to. Now we can talk about the issues at Fremont, and I’d love to hear why that ramp is such a problem.

Do these guys know the tweet character restriction was lifted for blue checkmarks?

You need more context to determine if Ross is an idiot!? Well, ok then.

Since BYD is the only other company even in the same stratosphere as Tesla concerning EVs, and the one publicly being flogged benchmarked against Tesla, then it’s exactly the correct comparison by Elon. There’s some context for you.

 

[CHGolferJim]

My fear is Tesla won't give much guidance in the ER. A further lack of info after these numbers could breed fear and doubt in the market which could drive TSLA down even further.

It's certainly going to be an interesting ER this month, no two ways about it.

Surely management will not take the usual eccentric approach, right?, right?

 

[Krugerrand]

Whatever you think of the substance issue, Ross Gerber runs a fairly small investment advisor firm and it is understandable that he uses social media to create a bit of controversy and publicity to stay known and relevant. That the CEO of one of the largest companies of the world responds by using schoolyard insults is however just another example of how poorly and recklessly Musk executes his duties. He and Tesla stand absolutely nothing to gain from an answer like that, how can it be so hard to understand?

Who doesn’t love a classic double standard on this glorious day?

 

[sunwarriors]

Hadn't seen this posted yet-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775489470965616723

This kinda thing is common among legacy auto who all have their own big financing arms but first time I can recall Tesla offering similar

Don't legacy auto makers do this when they can't move/sell cars? I had a 0% loan on a car before as well since it was free $$, but this isn't a bullish sign that there is high demand when you have offer discounts/free financing. Especially when you can get treasuries at 5%/much higher interest rates now.

 

[Krugerrand]

Also, Musk did not explain why while BYD sales increased YoY, Tesla decreased. Maybe the difference is just delayed deliveries in transit for exported markets?
Europe, China and US will see all a drop in sales, bot QoQ and YoY.

He doesn’t actually have to explain and it’s probably against some SEC rule that he can’t - until, wait for it - ER call in a few weeks.

 

[Gigapress]

An important aspect of this post is how, for years, people have speculated upon the horrible effects Elon's antics have had on the stock price, the brand, the metrics defining the company, etc.,

and,​

not a single one of those people ever put forth any effort to prove their theory by sorting through the facts and presenting support for their argument. Other than the most ambiguous attempts at correlation which failed to encompass a wide range of variables.

Thanks again @Gigapress for taking the time to show how there may be more to consider before jumping to a conclusion just because it would confirm one's bias, were it true.

Not that they will read it, or, should they read it, that it will change their feelings.

For those folks, please remember, facts don't care about your feelings.

I myself am somewhat surprised to have found no apparent net effect on vehicle sales, but I’ll trust the statistics over my intuition and individual examples of where there has been negative effects. The key word is “net”. On balance, the hypothesized effect is simply not showing up in the outcome data, at least in California, which is the one place above all else that I would expect the effect to be strongest and to be most detectable due to the large sample sizes reducing the effect of randomness. Stock price and brand effects are harder to directly measure in the way vehicle demand can be measured, so that’s a weaker conclusion.

 

[Mengy]

So a few things....

-do people expect the next growth phase to be driven by Model 2 (whatever it's going to be called)? If so, when do you expect that to meaningful contribute to the company? Because at last check, they have no planned space for where to build it. The process has not started in Mexico. It has taken Tesla 2-3 years from groundbreaking on a new factory to actually seeing vehicles come off the line that amount to more than a few hundred a week. So, if history repeats itself, it doesn't look like there will be volume production of a Model 2 until 2027 and that's if they hurry up and start building the factory in the next few months (Mexico, Austin expansion, etc.).

-You want Tesla to have a growth multiple as a growth company, you can't have them declining YoY (you said QoQ, but it's YoY that's the big story). Q124 is likely to be the 4th or 5th straight quarter of EPS decline. That doesn't exactly line up with a growth company from an investor perspective.

-If cash is doing so well, why no stock buy back? Why did they sell $3bn in bonds in the 2nd half of 2023? Kind of an odd juxtaposition, imo.

- Yes, the next growth phase for Tesla autos will be the Gen3 compact platform.

- Production is slated to start in late 2025 but possibly slipping to early 2026.

- First production line is in Austin so the engineers can work out the kinks and optimize it. Second line will be in Giga Mexico once the Austin line design is complete and working optimally. Then likely Shanghai and Berlin will also follow. This is the plan according to Tesla and Elon directly.

- Tesla autos had a bad Q1, and while production growth will be below the yearly 50% CAGR until Gen 3 is in production, they still plan to have some meager production growth. Fremont and Shanghai are ramped up to capacity while Austin and Berlin still have room to grow, but Tesla is still ramping them slowly due to the macro economic conditions (ie: demand issues). Energy is still growing in it's early S-curve, and both FSD & Optimus are improving at regular intervals. Tesla is still growing, but the financial growth will certainly slow for a bit until the new products come online.

- Tesla really doesn't care about its stock price anymore, they have 30 billion in cash and make profits every quarter. I think having cash on hand coupled with investment into growth is much more important to Tesla than the share price, so I personally don't foresee any stock buybacks for this decade. Maybe someday once Robotaxis are on the roads and Optimus bots are stealing our jobs....

 

[WolfHero]

I am a sucker who bought into the FSD story from day one. Now I see others who haven’t paid a dime for FSD supervised get it before me on much cheaper cars. Tesla is just forgetting about, us who supported them when the times were rough. Still no FSD supervised for the legacy Model S and. Should have put the money in TSLA instead of FSD.

Rohan Patel, Tesla policy, directly addressed this this issue below. Summary, they need extensive validation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775509433524617228

 

[Drax7]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775414062136078398

FSD is getting better and better!

Amazing, FSD will be a need , not a want. This should drive sales
In the future. If so, sales growth will eventually resume .
Traffic congestion is probably at an all time high, FSD
Is the antidote to traffic frustration.

 

[Musskiah]

Who doesn’t love a classic double standard on this glorious day?

I ask again, can the moderators please install a "" option in the "" reaction menu?

 

[sunwarriors]

With the robo-tax discussion eliminating uber drivers and governments not caring, has there been discussions if BYD starts building cars in Mexico? They can probably undercut on price current EV makers and outside of Made in China hate (which maybe similar to how much Elon hate affects sales), probably hard for buyers if one can get an EV with subsidies for $15k-$20k. This would completely compete with Model 2 sales. Not to mention, everything is made in China already so maybe people won't care if they can get cheap EVs.

BYD Is One Step Closer To Selling Cars In America

China's biggest EV maker is planning to build a factory in North America.

carbuzz.com

 

[2daMoon]

With the robo-tax discussion eliminating uber drivers and governments not caring, has there been discussions if BYD starts building cars in Mexico?

Amazing how you can cram three unrelated topics into one sentence, then put a question mark at the end.

I bet you got an A+ in Newspeak at school.

 

[advocate8]

Rohan Patel, Tesla policy, directly addressed this this issue below. Summary, they need extensive validation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775509433524617228

And Tesla’s position on this, given what Patel is saying, is completely reasonable. They are coming up with the fix, but given the very real and understandable hardware issues, it can’t be instant and they can’t dump billions into a fix for such a tiny fraction of the cars in the field. It IS a business.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think you got the numbers confused, they were reported all mixed up which had me confused too. For just BEVs in Q1 BYD sold less than Tesla, after they had surpassed them for the first time in Q4. Confusion was about NEVs vs BEVs an quarterly vs monthly.

IMHO weak sales are due to short term but global scale demand issues that are however not limited to Tesla or even BEVs.

Yes. I was on that yesterday. But nobody on the other side cares to acknowledge that. They simply want to discuss YoY because it fits their narrative.

QoQ Tesla sold more EVs at a significantly higher price than BYD.

I don’t actually care about any of it. None of the numbers. None of the comparisons. I’m not interested in mental gymnastics to create clickbait headlines, and fill agendas and narratives.

Why so many are supporting the media, WS and the like by pushing Elon bad, Tesla demand problems, blah, blah, blah speaks to just how much trouble the human race is in. That they can’t see the forest for the trees is gobsmackingly disheartening. It’s the proverbial slow motion train wreck before one’s eyes that you’re powerless to stop.

So many just don’t get it. Apparently, never will. So wrapped up in the unimportant. Sad.

 

[CitizenKane]

Who doesn’t love a classic double standard on this glorious day?

On the contrary, it is the exact same standard used. Each of them should do what is good for their respective companies. And, also, one is criticizing actions, while the other resorts to ad hominem.

 

[Musskiah]

Hadn't seen this posted yet-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775489470965616723

This kinda thing is common among legacy auto who all have their own big financing arms but first time I can recall Tesla offering similar

Nice find!

Tesla is also offering 0.99% in Germany, they have been for a couple months.

Konfigurieren Sie Ihr Model Y | Tesla

Konfigurieren und bestellen Sie Ihr Tesla Model Y - das Fahrzeug der Zukunft.

www.tesla.com

My first MX in 2016 was 105% financed at 0.99%, of course we were in a much different rate environment.

 

[Krugerrand]

An important topic which isn’t discussed enough.
As the number of vehicles outside warranty increases I foresee horror stories about battery’s failing and the cost of replacement increasing.
This will result in even more depreciation for out of warranty vehicles which in turn will impact new sales.

Is that you Dionne?

I foresee your hypothetical worst case scenario and raise you my own hypothetical utopian best case scenario that the batteries will last a century.

 

[DarkandStormy]

- Yes, the next growth phase for Tesla autos will be the Gen3 compact platform.

- Production is slated to start in late 2025 but possibly slipping to early 2026.

- First production line is in Austin so the engineers can work out the kinks and optimize it. Second line will be in Giga Mexico once the Austin line design is complete and working optimally. Then likely Shanghai and Berlin will also follow. This is the plan according to Tesla and Elon directly.

- Tesla autos had a bad Q1, and while production growth will be below the yearly 50% CAGR until Gen 3 is in production, they still plan to have some meager production growth. Fremont and Shanghai are ramped up to capacity while Austin and Berlin still have room to grow, but Tesla is still ramping them slowly due to the macro economic conditions (ie: demand issues). Energy is still growing in it's early S-curve, and both FSD & Optimus are improving at regular intervals. Tesla is still growing, but the financial growth will certainly slow for a bit until the new products come online.

- Tesla really doesn't care about its stock price anymore, they have 30 billion in cash and make profits every quarter. I think having cash on hand coupled with investment into growth is much more important to Tesla than the share price, so I personally don't foresee any stock buybacks for this decade. Maybe someday once Robotaxis are on the roads and Optimus bots are stealing our jobs....

Companies with $30bn in cash on hand don't typically sell $3bn worth of bonds. No one has been able to explain this.

 

[Krugerrand]

On the contrary, it is the exact same standard used. Each of them should do what is good for their respective companies. And, also, one is criticizing actions, while the other resorts to ad hominem.

Please. You excused Ross his actions because his business is small and he needs to drum up attention through antics to stay alive while Elon bad all around.

 

[Discoducky]

With the robo-tax discussion eliminating uber drivers and governments not caring, has there been discussions if BYD starts building cars in Mexico? They can probably undercut on price current EV makers and outside of Made in China hate (which maybe similar to how much Elon hate affects sales), probably hard for buyers if one can get an EV with subsidies for $15k-$20k. This would completely compete with Model 2 sales. Not to mention, everything is made in China already so maybe people won't care if they can get cheap EVs.

BYD Is One Step Closer To Selling Cars In America

China's biggest EV maker is planning to build a factory in North America.

carbuzz.com

We know politicians can be bought (like Trump was against Tiktok ban, till he wasn't, and we know about Newsom/CPUC/utilities).

Trump's TikTok ban reversal comes after meeting megadonor who has stake in TikTok

Trump reversed his position on potentially banning TikTok ahead of an expected House vote this week on legislation that could lead to it being blocked in the U.S

abcnews.go.com

BYD is massively expanding and IMO all good for Tesla as this will not only accelerate the transition to sustainable energy/transportation, but also eliminate the not-so-good supposed competitive EVs cluttering/confusing the US market.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772518401065275863