Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see some kind of tentative agreement sooner. Both Ford and Tesla stock would get a nice big lift.

What would be the downside for Ford? I only see upside.

R u sure about that? I’ll take the other side of the bet. Ford stock will rise, Tesla stock will do according to how the options are in the moment deciding SP direction. It’s as likely that it’ll be seen as a negative for Tesla - giving another moat away like SuperCharger Network - than a positive.

 

[2daMoon]

Random thought: I really don’t think FSD will enable the current S3XY fleet to become robotaxis. FSD is showing great progress but SEXY have no electronic steering redundancy. The redundancy is just the driver taking over. It could be that the Cybertruck is the first viable robotaxi because of its multiple steering actuators. So it’s not as simple as “flipping a switch” imo.

Yes, it is a crying shame that a company with the foresight to build a production empire around the future potential for autonomous vehicles, all done in the interest of making driving safer, to the degree that they have engineered and installed otherwise unnecessary and expensive control hardware and software into every vehicle they produce, have now been exposed for having made such a glaring oversight in their plan for world domination.

Somebody tell Jim Cramer to hit the SELL button!!! Stat!!!

 

[2daMoon]

I just found a motorcycle in my couch and need to clean it up to sell so I can get more chairs.

 

[GatorMeat]

I ask again, can the moderators please install a "" option in the "" reaction menu?

It's not a double standard. Elon, as CEO of a former 'Magnificent 7' company should and is held to a much higher standard than a cali bro running a tiny RIA firm. But Elon's emotional intelligence and maturity is so low that he fails to recognize why he shouldn't act like a troll and even recognize those beneath him and stop punching down.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Random thought: I really don’t think FSD will enable the current S3XY fleet to become robotaxis. FSD is showing great progress but SEXY have no electronic steering redundancy. The redundancy is just the driver taking over. It could be that the Cybertruck is the first viable robotaxi because of its multiple steering actuators. So it’s not as simple as “flipping a switch” imo.

It doesn't really matter much.

Worst case scenario in actually delivering AVs is that Tesla swaps old vehicles for new, selling the old vehicles and takes a temporary hit.
Those old vehicles would likely still have awesome L2 and some L3.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Yeah. Let's say Ford announces they are going with Tesla. What does Mary do?

A GM FSD announcement is the right move for her, but it will be a really hard pill to swallow. Either way she probably gets fired.

She can then dedicate more time to the Disney BOD after her firing

 

[Usain]

Random thought: I really don’t think FSD will enable the current S3XY fleet to become robotaxis. FSD is showing great progress but SEXY have no electronic steering redundancy. The redundancy is just the driver taking over. It could be that the Cybertruck is the first viable robotaxi because of its multiple steering actuators. So it’s not as simple as “flipping a switch” imo.

I don't think steering redundancy is an absolute requirement for robotaxi. I don't believe Waymo has it, right?

But yes, it's not as simple as flipping a switch. The first Tesla robotaxis will operate under a tightly controlled environment.

 

[Sunlight]

You must be new to Tesla. Many of your questions stem from a pure unknowing of the car industry on all levels, Tesla’s role in changing the world, and how best to go about it and not go bankrupt in the process.

Suggest you start at the beginning of this thread for background information on all of the above. Your questions will be answered many times over along the way.

Bought shares in 2014; even most probably older than you; had endless cars; engineer etc

I think my comment valid! For you this was even smugger than usual - deserves a snotklap!

If you go back through my postings, you’ll know that I believe Tesla’s strength is assessing risk/ data and knowing how not to go broke.

But I wonder about the eggs in one basket approach…..

 

[EVNow]

Although I massively agree with a lot of this post, there is also a flipside. Elon being elon does indeed cause all of the huge problems you list, but it also brings huge gains. The cybertruck did indeed take too long, but the result is a car that people are describing as iconic. Its likely the ONLY mass market vehicle in the last decade that can be instantly recognised from its silhouette. The free advertising from cybertrucks will be huge, and we are nowhere close to seeing how that plays out.

I think the main issue is Tesla is doing things somewhat in series. That could be because of concentration of power and decision making at the highest level or something else.

Essentially once Y was done - they should have started building the next gen model plant in Mexico.

This way they are growing the # of models at the same rate they want to grow the production. Clearly 3/Y/S/X have reached a plateau in terms of volume and will now fluctuate based on the economy. CT is not the millions a year model - so they needed the smaller Sedan+SUV by now to increase the volume.

 

[Krugerrand]

It's not a double standard. Elon, as CEO of a former 'Magnificent 7' company should and is held to a much higher standard than a cali bro running a tiny RIA firm.

You literally just defined double standard.

 

[GatorMeat]

I have no idea who Dionne is.
I know the majority of battery’s which haven’t been constantly supercharged will last a long time.

However if my budget is buying used vehicles out of warranty would I take a risk buying an EV knowing a minority’s batteries will fail and it will cost me say half the cost of the car to replace it ?

Supercharging has been studied and it has been proven to have no effect on battery longevity

 

[2daMoon]

It's not a double standard. Elon, as CEO of a former 'Magnificent 7' company should and is held to a much higher standard than a cali bro running a tiny RIA firm. But Elon's emotional intelligence and maturity is so low that he fails to recognize why he shouldn't act like a troll and even recognize those beneath him and stop punching down.

You hit on almost all of the reasons he makes such a unique and successful leader, because he doesn't kowtow to the pressures of others leaning on him to be politically correct nor conform to socially acceptable norms.

This leaves the impression of him being a renaissance man in everyman duds, rather than the typical "corporate figurehead" whom nearly anyone can easily despise if they didn't keep themselves out of the limelight so well.

Generally speaking, he only picks on those who have asked for it.

He's so cool!

Edit: Oh, and regarding your attempt to discourage anyone who likes this sort of thing by calling them a child, I have always valued people who keep in close touch with their inner child.

Everyone else who doesn't can be quite dull and condescending, presumably over jealousy or merely the want of joy in their lives.

Might this explain your rather negative take on the proven success of someone whose contributions will be remembered for centuries?

 

[Usain]

R u sure about that? I’ll take the other side of the bet. Ford stock will rise, Tesla stock will do according to how the options are in the moment deciding SP direction. It’s as likely that it’ll be seen as a negative for Tesla - giving another moat away like SuperCharger Network - than a positive.

I was saying there is only upside for Ford.

But I don't see how increased software revenue could be seen as a negative for Tesla. Especially when Tesla has no competition and they can charge whatever the market will bear.

Software is a much easier, higher margin business than autos. Selling FSD to OEMs will be even more profitable than selling cars with FSD.

It's just like how selling Windows was a better business than selling PCs.

 

[GatorMeat]

You hit on almost all of the reasons he makes such a unique and successful leader, because he doesn't kowtow to the pressures of others leaning on him to be politically correct nor conform to socially acceptable norms.

This leaves the impression of him being a renaissance man in everyman duds, rather than the typical "corporate figurehead" whom nearly anyone can easily despise if they didn't keep themselves out of the limelight so well.

Generally speaking, he only picks on those who have asked for it.

He's so cool!

The car buying market seems to disagree with Elon's childish behavior, as Tesla has record inventory levels even with the most promotions ever offered in a quarter

 

[Discoducky]

Random thought: I really don’t think FSD will enable the current S3XY fleet to become robotaxis. FSD is showing great progress but SEXY have no electronic steering redundancy. The redundancy is just the driver taking over. It could be that the Cybertruck is the first viable robotaxi because of its multiple steering actuators. So it’s not as simple as “flipping a switch” imo.

Redundancy is in the compute/software. It is fully compliant.

 

[Usain]

She can then dedicate more time to the Disney BOD after her firing

Is she on the Disney board?

I go to Disney World quite often. If you go inside the Test Track attraction (sponsored by Chevrolet), you see a showroom for Chevy vehicles. They used to always have a Bolt on display. I was there a few weeks ago and there was not one single EV at all. Take from that what you will.

 

[Krugerrand]

Bought shares in 2014; even most probably older than you; had endless cars; engineer etc

I think my comment valid! For you this was even smugger than usual - deserves a snotklap!

If you go back through my postings, you’ll know that I believe Tesla’s strength is assessing risk/ data and knowing how not to go broke.

But I wonder about the eggs in one basket approach…..

Gobsmacked then that you asked the questions. The answers seem obvious to me as a shareholder since 2012, a follower of Elon since 60 Minutes interview in 2005/6?, offspring of an exceptional class A licensed mechanic that only finished 8th grade, but admittedly am not an engineer because my brain works differently - obviously.

Valid concern eggs in one basket. One might respond as Elon; go big or go home. I believe in balance in one’s life, so you’ll find me supportive of many different approaches. I’ve done the diversification route in investment. Saw some wins and got my butt handed to me. I found the one basket that I believe all the eggs belong. So far - win. GL 2 u.

 

[Dutchie]

And Tesla’s position on this, given what Patel is saying, is completely reasonable. They are coming up with the fix, but given the very real and understandable hardware issues, it can’t be instant and they can’t dump billions into a fix for such a tiny fraction of the cars in the field. It IS a business.

No, there is no explanation. We upgraded to HW3 a long time ago and also have the MCU2 installed for we paid also extra. Basically the same setup as the earlier refreshed Model S and X. He doesn’t give any information on what needs to be validated. He also said he would post information slides about the validation process. He promised to post that on Monday and later revised that to Tuesday. There is still nothing yet.

We paid thousands of dollars for this. Yet people who drive the basic Tesla enjoy it now for free as we speak. We were proponents of Tesla from the beginning and supported the when times were rough. This is not how you treat your loyal customers.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think the main issue is Tesla is doing things somewhat in series. That could be because of concentration of power and decision making at the highest level or something else.

Essentially once Y was done - they should have started building the next gen model plant in Mexico.

This way they are growing the # of models at the same rate they want to grow the production. Clearly 3/Y/S/X have reached a plateau in terms of volume and will now fluctuate based on the economy. CT is not the millions a year model - so they needed the smaller Sedan+SUV by now to increase the volume.

Respectfully, you don’t have enough information nor have you run an OEM let alone a singular entity of Tesla’s type and caliber, to allow you do know what they should have done.

 

[hitchhiker]

You hit on almost all of the reasons he makes such a unique and successful leader, because he doesn't kowtow to the pressures of others leaning on him to be politically correct nor conform to socially acceptable norms.

No, he's a successful leader because he's willing to take risks and act on his knowledge rather than crowdsourcing and compromising on decisions like most corporate leaders are required to do. That's not the same thing as what you said, nor is it the opposite. One can be circumspect on how you speak, and still take the risks that get you progress and success.