Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[capster]

Yes. I was on that yesterday. But nobody on the other side cares to acknowledge that. They simply want to discuss YoY because it fits their narrative.

QoQ Tesla sold more EVs at a significantly higher price than BYD.

I don’t actually care about any of it. None of the numbers. None of the comparisons. I’m not interested in mental gymnastics to create clickbait headlines, and fill agendas and narratives.

Why so many are supporting the media, WS and the like by pushing Elon bad, Tesla demand problems, blah, blah, blah speaks to just how much trouble the human race is in. That they can’t see the forest for the trees is gobsmackingly disheartening. It’s the proverbial slow motion train wreck before one’s eyes that you’re powerless to stop.

So many just don’t get it. Apparently, never will. So wrapped up in the unimportant. Sad.

Oil is the dinosaurs’ revenge on mammals.

 

[replicant]

Ethan Knight leaving for xAI. https://www.theinformation.com/articles/musks-xai-is-poaching-engineers-from-tesla

 

[NicoV]

The Hertz thing couldn’t have played out better for the anti-Tesla/anti-EV crowd.

It remains unclear who fumbled the ball on what should have been a very successful partnership.

Ok, Let Hertz rent out Cybertrucks with FSD then.

 

[jschwefel]

I see we are back on the "Elon bad" campaign again (not that we ever really left). Without debating it endlessly, I was impressed with the simple reaction of Lars and Franz toward the end of the Top Gear video (from the launch - see below...should be queued to around 36:29) where the interviewer asked if this (the Cybertruck) would have been possible with any other boss (eg besides Elon). The "Hell No","No","No" response spoke volumes to me and (probably) anyone who has spent more than 5 minutes being exposed to the typical leaders in corporate America. One could say they were towing the company line, but it was pretty obvious they were serious and Lars went on to talk about how it was nice to actually talk with a CEO who understood engineering and physics so he didn't have to dumb it down. I know this SEEMS like no big deal, but it felt like such a one-in-a-million anomaly when you've lived in the corporate world for so long - it was truly a bullish moment for me.

Man…I just love Lars and Franz.

 

[capster]

I know the board is in FSD mode, but just in case some people madly do not follow Joe... texas keeps pumping out those cybertrucks. I think Q2 cybertruck production is going to be really good... but the thing that boggles my mind is that nobody here has mentioned getting asked about a non foundation series? Is it really true that all of these are foundation series CTs at crazy high prices? (link:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775543826116943921

)

View attachment 1035162

It’s what I’ve been trying to communicate here: Cybertruck really is that good. It will command "crazy high prices" for some time.

Someone on the Cybertruck Owners site mentioned something about CT’s going from 1000 to be produced to 20-25K to be produced. I don’t know the original source or reliability of that info.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see another, only-slightly-less-expensive package following the Foundation Series.

As I said before, I don’t think CT prices will come down anytime soon. I’ll add that the Foundation Series may offer the most bang for the buck of any CT pricing for a couple of years.

 

[advocate8]

No, there is no explanation. We upgraded to HW3 a long time ago and also have the MCU2 installed for we paid also extra. Basically the same setup as the earlier refreshed Model S and X. He doesn’t give any information on what needs to be validated. He also said he would post information slides about the validation process. He promised to post that on Monday and later revised that to Tuesday. There is still nothing yet.

We paid thousands of dollars for this. Yet people who drive the basic Tesla enjoy it now for free as we speak. We were proponents of Tesla from the beginning and supported the when times were rough. This is not how you treat your loyal customers.

So they just have no rational reason at all? Uh, ok.

 

[scaesare]

The car buying market seems to disagree with Elon's childish behavior, as Tesla has record inventory levels even with the most promotions ever offered in a quarter

Correlation ≠ causation, and all that.

 

[scaesare]

saw this on X ... still not happy about it but at least a response has been given

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774511721954041942

as an investor i get it ... as an early adopter customer ... Tesla does not reward you ... you might even say they punish you

Mmm... don't necessarily agree. Just because there are physical constraints that may make the reward different in scale or schedule, doesn't mean they don't or don't try.

I'm an early adopter (2013 Model S). I have received capability and features in excess of whatever was initially included in my car, even if it didn't always match what later, more capable cars got.

 

[Knightshade]

Ethan Knight leaving for xAI. https://www.theinformation.com/articles/musks-xai-is-poaching-engineers-from-tesla

I mean Elon told Tesla if they didn't give him 25% of the votes he'd just go develop AI elsewhere- shouldn't be surprising he's also taking employees from Tesla to do it.

 

[Matias]

I mean Elon told Tesla if they didn't give him 25% of the votes he'd just go develop AI elsewhere- shouldn't be surprising he's also taking employees from Tesla to do it.

Not surprising but also not at the best interest of Tesla. He’s probably recruiting the best talent.

 

[anthonyj]

So, what’s the deal with this “Early Cybertruck Delivery for Long Term Shareholders” program? We are approaching a month since they announced it, and we have no idea what it even does due to how vague it is.

Is it for people who did not get an invite to configure? What about those who configured and are waiting for a VIN? No one knows! No one has even gotten confirmation emails yet.

I got sick of waiting for my Cyberbeast. Yesterday I changed my configuration to the AWD and got a VIN instantly. Tesla sure has a way with their lack of transparency

 

[Singuy]

I mean Elon told Tesla if they didn't give him 25% of the votes he'd just go develop AI elsewhere- shouldn't be surprising he's also taking employees from Tesla to do it.

I expect hardware related AI products like FSD or optimus will continue to be part of Tesla as they are a manufacturing company.

Any software related products like ChatGTP clones will be developed by XAI as that's the best place to curate such useful data for those type of things.

XAI may be Dojo's first customer just to get the service started.

The 25% thing is a red herring. Musk always intended AI to be developed this way.

 

[Singuy]

So, what’s the deal with this “Early Cybertruck Delivery for Long Term Shareholders” program? We are approaching a month since they announced it, and we have no idea what it even does due to how vague it is.

Is it for people who did not get an invite to configure? What about those who configured and are waiting for a VIN? No one knows! No one has even gotten confirmation emails yet.

I got sick of waiting for my Cyberbeast. Yesterday I changed my configuration to the AWD and got a VIN instantly. Tesla sure has a way with their lack of transparency

You are still alive! Thought you passed out somewhere due to too much hookers and blow.

 

[cab]

It’s what I’ve been trying to communicate here: Cybertruck really is that good. It will command "crazy high prices" for some time.

Someone on the Cybertruck Owners site mentioned something about CT’s going from 1000 to be produced to 20-25K to be produced. I don’t know the original source or reliability of that info.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see another, only-slightly-less-expensive package following the Foundation Series.

As I said before, I don’t think CT prices will come down anytime soon. I’ll add that the Foundation Series may offer the most bang for the buck of any CT pricing for a couple of years.

The one thing I am wondering about is whether or not the battery will qualify for the $7500 rebate on the $80K truck. I think I read (somewhere on the vast interweb) that Tesla may have imported some of the materials (for anode or cathode). IF that is the case, they may be hoping to have it eligible for the full rebate (by building that component inhouse) before they release the $80K version. The lower the price of the truck, the more price-sensitive the buyers will tend to be...sure, not all of them (high earners aren't eligible, etc.), but at least some number of them. Still, I am impressed there are that many takers so far at 6 figures!

Honestly, it would be really nice if BOTH the Cybertruck and Model 3 (particularly the latter) were eligible for the full rebate in 2025!

 

[Knightshade]

I expect hardware related AI products like FSD or optimus will continue to be part of Tesla as they are a manufacturing company.

Any software related products like ChatGTP clones will be developed by XAI as that's the best place to curate such useful data for those type of things.

The dude Elons non-Tesla company just poached from Tesla was the head of Computer Vision. Seems pretty relevant to FSD.

 

[MP3Mike]

The dude Elons non-Tesla company just poached from Tesla

How do you know they were poached? Maybe they were ready for a change and approached xAI themselves.

And of course, nobody knew who they are, or was talking about them, until somebody saw that they left Tesla.

 

[Gigapress]

…The next mistake was not continuing to increase production of existing battery’s whilst the 4680s are being developed….

Production of non-4680 batteries is still increasing. Tesla always said 4680s were supplemental and they want as many cells as suppliers can make.

 

[Drumheller]

The dude Elons non-Tesla company just poached from Tesla was the head of Computer Vision. Seems pretty relevant to FSD.

I do view it as a conflict of interest. However, I think perhaps Elon sees some writing on the wall. The corrupt in the USA are doing what they can to harm Elon and push him out of Tesla. Elon lost his last 5 years of pay and it doesn't seem like much is being done to keep him interested in Tesla.

Elon is looking ahead to the next problems. FSD is starting the march of 9s, so the interesting problem solving part is pretty much done for someone like Elon.

 

[Singuy]

The dude Elons non-Tesla company just poached from Tesla was the head of Computer Vision. Seems pretty relevant to FSD.

Yeah some spaceX engineers came over to Tesla as well but that doesn't mean Tesla will start working on rockets.

The head of computer vision can work on many image/video AI applications. Google Lens for example require computer vision expertise.

Elon most likely believes vision for FSD is solved (or no longer require that guy to solve it) and now it's all about planning and control.

 

[EQC_]

I was saying there is only upside for Ford.

But I don't see how increased software revenue could be seen as a negative for Tesla. Especially when Tesla has no competition and they can charge whatever the market will bear.

Software is a much easier, higher margin business than autos. Selling FSD to OEMs will be even more profitable than selling cars with FSD.

It's just like how selling Windows was a better business than selling PCs.

It could be similar to Tesla opening the supercharger network:

One group of people will say Tesla is pushing the Mission forward and also collecting revenue from vehicles of their competitors.

Another group of people will say Tesla is giving (selling) it's own moat away to competitors...