Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

I think this is a very important point. If this was a clear one time impact of something - supply chain disruption for example -the Tesla team would be on calls with the stock analysts to discuss this which should bring down estimates but with a caveat.

There WAS a meeting with analysts a few weeks ago. Subsequently they DID adjust their estimates down.

Instead we have big misses (which also make the analysts look bad) with no clear message on the rest of the year.

Either Tesla doesn’t know why, doesn’t want to communicate why or has decided to blow off communications with the analyst community.

In any case it isn’t a very good look for large investors with hundreds of millions in Tesla stock to worry about.

You do understand that the analysts can and do get it wrong by mistake and purposely, right?

 

[cliff harris]

There is a huge market in the US for EVs. Just look at how sad US adoption is compared to Norway or even the UK. Physics is not different in the US, and frankly electricity is cheaper there, and solar+wind potential is higher.
The US MEDIA does a great job at spinning a negative narrative about EVs, but its fighting a losing battle. I can't say for sure that Kim Cardassian tweeting constantly in front of her cybertruck marks a turning point, but it certainly cannot hurt.
Every Tesla sold in the US creates a new roving billboard and evangelist for EVs. The most iconic new vehicle in a decade is an EV. The media are fighting a losing battle.

 

[elasalle]

market right now ... experience FSD ... buy stock .. take adv of the dip

 

[scaesare]

... literally none of that makes any sense my man. You can't "reroute processing" to the infotainment-- that's some Star Trek technobabble.

First- they're entirely different chip architectures running entirely different code.

Second, to my knowledge the infotainment computer by design for safety reasons can not give commands to the driving components of the vehicle like the brakes, accelerator, or steering wheel. (Note: this, among the 3 reasons I list, IS a software one and COULD be changed- but wouldn't help you even if you did because of reasons 1 and 3)

Third-even if it could both run some simple "pull over safely" code AND command the car controls to do it- guess where all the camera data that ANY computer would need to be able to pull over safely goes via direct plug in? The driving computer. Which loses networking if node A dies. So it can't provide any data to the MCU to "drive" with even if the other reasons didn't exist (which- they do).

What you're suggesting would require additional HW that does not exist (at least up through HW3 cars--- HW4 appears to add a second actual network interface into the other node).




You haven't actually described any that are physically possible though so I'm not sure there's "many"... or any.




Nobody's moving anything. The 2020 issue of using both nodes for a single instance of the software is still true today.

But in addition to that there's HW limitations that make true redundancy impossible even if that software problem was magically gone.

I agree they have meetings about this. Which is probably why HW4 has dual network connections to solve the exact hardware limitation I'm describing.

If there was some easy software fix Tesla would've just done THAT instead of adding hardware- instead they added hardware. Because it's a hardware limitation you can only fix in hardware.

But that does not help the majority of the fleet on HW3 and older- esp. when Elon already told us those cars won't be upgraded to HW4.

So, what is that network limitation in node B imply?

Are all of the communications from the FSD computer to the rest of the car's control systems (inverter, steering, braking, etc...) via ethernet network?

 

[Christine69420]

news item 1: Tesla scouting India locations
news feed item 2: Berlin starting producing RHD for India market ...

since India cap is 8K, doesn't matter if they start later and still get 8K deliveries by EOY.

And if there are delays in India they could send the cars to their next door neighbours on the British Isles.

Not sure if I trust Reuters that much yet but would be nice if true.

 

[aubreymcfato]

There is a huge market in the US for EVs. Just look at how sad US adoption is compared to Norway or even the UK. Physics is not different in the US, and frankly electricity is cheaper there, and solar+wind potential is higher.
The US MEDIA does a great job at spinning a negative narrative about EVs, but its fighting a losing battle. I can't say for sure that Kim Cardassian tweeting constantly in front of her cybertruck marks a turning point, but it certainly cannot hurt.
Every Tesla sold in the US creates a new roving billboard and evangelist for EVs. The most iconic new vehicle in a decade is an EV. The media are fighting a losing battle.

I'll bet 1$ that US will be the one market to have disappointed the most in Q1.
Europe data will be over 85k, as Q323 (the rest of Qs are over 90k). People following the EU market were expecting a decrease YoY. Also China was lower, but expected.

I think we'll see very low sales in US: but I don't know the reasons.

I can say that I get the impression (also in Italy, where EVs are rare) that there is a campaign in full swing against them, from all angles.

 

[Musskiah]

He can be your hero. I was being sarcastic since the poster deemed it necessary to place that falsehood about me at my feet.

I respect and admire particular traits about Elon that I do not possess. That is all.

I worship at His throne nightly...absolutely no sarcasm. Nope. Not me.

 

[unk45]

Simply. Neither you nor I are privy to ‘the plan’ happening behind the scenes.

I have mentioned in the past that I had an opportunity to speak with a couple of the ‘house representatives’ a few years back. They reached out because they saw my portfolio. Yeah. Surprise. I’m a nobody and yet they knew all about my investment in TSLA.

The whole experience was eye opening. They were summarily told to go pound sand. I wholeheartedly embrace the saying, money is the root of all kinds of evil.

There’s a wonderful thread on the forum detailing the history of a Canadian company that was being systematically attacked in an attempt to bankrupt it. You might find some answers you seek in it. The name of the company escapes me and I can’t find the forum member’s exact name - Jessee something I think. Dodger will know for sure what I’m talking about. Probably several other members.

One famous example is this:

The story behind Robinhood’s decision to halt GameStop buying

Robinhood’s decision to halt buying activity on GameStop stock on January 28 was a result of ‘extraordinary’ trading and subseq

www.irmagazine.com

Another, Canadian, example is this:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/lightspeed-stock-short-seller-1.6194974

Always, Citadel is involved, although they always have explanations because they dominate several categories of wholesale securities categories in the US, especially. No accident Ken Griffin is doing well and contributes generously to cancer treatment centers, including South Florida ones located near his home.

By far the largest and best capitalized firm to regularly be attacked in this fashion is TSLA. The surface of this is well documented and includes social media FUD offerings as well as celebrity professional short 'artists' whose antics often are very profitable especially if the FUD happens most virulently just after they have made big shorts.

As always, it is easy to cast rumors, about these abuses too, and more difficult to accurately catch the culprits. They are very, very skilled and have high success.

Our current issues with tesla are classically treasured by these 'artists'. Tesla did tell us how 2024 would be different, then unconnected negative evens in the Red Sea and Germany, exacerbated the issues, further exacerbated by changing market conditions in several major markets. Factually, TSLA holders would not and could not, expect gains this year. Tesla told us that! Zero surprise. All the large repositioning by the company including new factories in Mexico, India and elsewhere are continuing, with a slower pace than had happened in China and Germany. Part of that was the result of the decision to launch first production in Austin, for a local commute by key engineers.
Part of that was the result to making major moves once key factory engineering decisions have been finalized. After all, it does not take a genius to know that 'boxless' vs 'assembly line' demands very, very different factory design. We all know that, even if we are ignorant about manufacturing. That, though, is a great opportunity for 'fools and knaves' to rush in shooting "Disaster"!

Even our own highly valued forecasters were caught by this because they were monitoring the traditional Tesla processes rather than the new ones that smooth rather than have peaks and valleys. How much worse it was to have all that planned change suddenly faced with real catastrophies in Houthi and Terrorist form.

Back to Canadian and other short targets: These circumstances are the stuff of their dreams.
When we panic and sell we feed their pockets and Ken Griffin has more money.

 

[unk45]

FYI​

BYD will offer an electrified pickup for global markets​

BYD will offer an electrified pickup for global markets - Autoblog

BYD's first electrified pickup is nearing an official reveal, but details are currently in short supply.

www.autoblog.com

There is at least one discussion about that in Brazil, where there is a major market for small four door pickups, especially the Fiat Strada. In fewer than three months BYD became to largest seller of EV's here, with the Dolphin now in service with local Taxi and ride share services. My sister-in-law rode in one two days ago and noted that the driver (Uber in this case) already noticed increased electricity usage at his home, where BYD had installed the charger free in his condominium residence garage. At the same time he mentioned that BYD said they'll soon have the "Strada-equivalent EV" for all those small commercial owners.
Only one source, but maybe credible. Those Dolphins and Swans are all around now, although I have not seen a Mini-Dolphin.

 

[SarahsDad]

There’s a wonderful thread on the forum detailing the history of a Canadian company that was being systematically attacked in an attempt to bankrupt it. You might find some answers you seek in it. The name of the company escapes me and I can’t find the forum member’s exact name - Jessee something I think. Dodger will know for sure what I’m talking about. Probably several other members.

That thread references The Divide by Matt Taibbi - well worth reading.
The Divide: American Injustice in the Age of the Wealth Gap - Wikipedia.

Great book and very eye opening. And yes, Taibbi is the same guy that Elon brought in to write the Twitter Files… I can’t help but think that his work on The Divide is what caught Elon’s attention.

 

[Drumheller]

I wholeheartedly embrace the saying, money is the root of all kinds of evil.

A frequent misquote. The actual quote is, "The love of money is the root of all evil"

Greed is the problem. Money is just a tool to be used or abused like any other tool.

In my view, greed is the most common trap for humans, particularly in our current society in the USA.

 

[2daMoon]

I wholeheartedly embrace the saying, the love of money is the root of all kinds of evil.

Correction to the quoted phrase.

Money is a necessary tool. Without it we'd be trying to barter chickens for software subscriptions.

It is the love of money which has traditionally been considered the root of all evil.

A minor, though important distinction that is often overlooked when quoting.

Edit: NInja'd by @Drumheller

 

[GatorMeat]

I have seen a story that Canoo paid $1.7 million for the CEO’s private jet bills which is twice its total revenue last year. When it lost $302 million.

A prime example of why the ruling against the compensation package is so infuriating.

Would not a comparison of Elon's total comp package compared to total Tesla net profit result in such an absurd ratio?

 

[Linkmeup]

A frequent misquote. The actual quote is, "The love of money is the root of all evil"

Greed is the problem. Money is just a tool to be used or abused like any other tool.

In my view, greed is the most common trap for humans, particularly in our current society in the USA.

If we're going into this conversation, to me its a tool for good and evil. Much like any other tool, it can be used in all sorts of ways...greed though...different scenario, one shouldn't apply money as the goal as much as it is a byproduct (or proof of productivity) of an overarching goal or set of goals.

 

[NicoV]

I'll bet 1$ that US will be the one market to have disappointed the most in Q1.
Europe data will be over 85k, as Q323 (the rest of Qs are over 90k). People following the EU market were expecting a decrease YoY. Also China was lower, but expected.

I think we'll see very low sales in US: but I don't know the reasons.

I can say that I get the impression (also in Italy, where EVs are rare) that there is a campaign in full swing against them, from all angles.

Q1 24 will be less than 10% lower than the best quarter in 2023 in EU. Keep in mind that it was the European market that was impacted by delays caused by the Houthis and by the Berlin fire. I consider this a very good result.

Belgium and Flanders are also demonstrating what good incentives can do. On the company car market, making non-EV’s non-tax-deductible is a zero-cost incentive for the government. I’m pretty sure this model will be adopted in other EU countries, in particular the countries that previously had generous subsidies and stopped them because it got too expensive. In Flanders the regional government introduced a 5K euro subsidy for individuals, but with a price limit of 40K probably designed to exclude Tesla. But Tesla is now giving inventory discounts on the most basic black and white cars lowering the priced to 39990 euro. As a result Q1 is 2x the 2023 quarters.
Another perspective is that individuals can now buy a Tesla for less than what I paid for my Prius 15 years ago! Who is still saying that EV’s are expensive?

 

[2daMoon]

Would not a comparison of Elon's total comp package compared to total Tesla net profit result in such an absurd ratio?

I think that was the point being made.

Good that you picked up on this otherwise obvious bit of irony in order to comment on it.

 

[GOVA]

Interesting place this is. Again.

Monday, manufactured nothingburger, 100s of post from weird accounts bitching at Tesla and Elon.
Thursday, 2nd green day so far, hardly anybody says Elon bad. Where are those bots from Monday?

 

[Krugerrand]

Correction to the quoted phrase.

Money is a necessary tool. Without it we'd be trying to barter chickens for software subscriptions.

It is the love of money which has traditionally been considered the root of all evil.

A minor, though important distinction that is often overlooked when quoting.

Edit: NInja'd by @Drumheller

Technically it’s FOR the love of money -

But yes. Agreed all around.

 

[Bobfitz1]

It might come down to volume and training data, HW3 Model 3/Y are where all the volume are and training the system depends on massive amounts of data. Each vehicle has cameras in slightly different locations, and each hardware configuration will also differ, so its all different training sets.

I’m just waiting for them to call HW3 done and move on to HW4, because HW4 is currently just running HW3 in emulation.

I haven't heard of HW4 cars running FSD in emulation before now. A quick query found the summary below with an emulation reference.

I'll be trying FSD V12.3 for the first time once it stops snowing here in Vermont. Does HW4 emulating code trained for HW3 cars mean that FSD won't work quite as well on HW4 cars? Or that once Tesla is ready with FSD trained for HW4, that with training taking advantage of the better HW performance, each updated release will work somewhat better on HW4 cars than the older cars?

https://www.notebookcheck.net/Tesla...n-Musk-says-HW3-cars-a-priority.820609.0.html

"The Model Y and Model 3 Highland with HW4 Samsung Vision cameras and the new computer aren't getting the full FSD 12 experience that their car's hardware is capable of. In fact, Tesla only emulates FSD created for the Hardware 3.0 kit in its HW4 vehicles."

 

[Sunlight]

What’s happened to the S-curve of adoption!?

Hiccup, new trend, FUD?