Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AudubonB]

How much of the 138 million-and-counting After Hours volume is a function of legitimate closing clearing data, how much of options settlements, and how much is from those reacting to the news?

 

[EQC_]

Yes, this is accurate... Reg FD requires fair disclosure. There is no law stating that they (Elon) can't disclose anything between now and earnings so long as it is done in the public domain (in a prior disclosure, it was determined that x/twitter qualifies as disclosing in the public domain).

Is Elon still technically held to the "Twitter sitter" ruling/agreement with the SEC? If so, then his vague responses (declaring a lie without specifics, "look" emojis) is both an easy way to respond without running afoul, and a decent way to thumb his nose at both Reuters and the SEC.

And honestly, it's gotta be much more fun to give vague responses and watch how it plays out instead of delivering facts....

And, part of me thinks it could be decent "product research." Leak some tidbit about a plan the company is considering, generate debate, and figure out what millions of people might be thinking....

 

[uscbucsfan]

I understood end of 2025 for production. From the last conference call.

Martin Viecha

Thank you. Let's go through investor questions. Question number one is from Michael: Given that you move the start of the next-generation compact vehicle production to Austin, has the timeline improved so that we might see the next-generation platform vehicles in 2025?

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

We -- I mean, I won't certainly say -- say things with -- they should be taken with a grain of salt since I'm often optimistic. But, you know, I don't want to blow your minds, but I'm often optimistic regarding time. But our current schedule says that we will start production toward the end of 2025, so sometime in the second half. That's just what our current schedule says.

That was his optimistic, sleeping on the factory floor timeline. I'd say 2026 for deliveries is a good bet, but not likely the CT timeline.

 

[Thekiwi]

... and no mention of Model 2 reveal.
I'm so confused and don't trust any media or their sources anymore... so thanks for that.

Unveiling the model 2 (aka cheaper, smaller car) years ahead of availability, during a time when Tesla is already having trouble moving 3 & Y inventory, would be incredibly stupid.

Unveiling the robotaxi early doesn’t impact purchase decisions at all, but depending on how much Tesla unveils about its build cost etc, will provide investors with valuable information about the economics of both robotaxi AND the model 2/unboxing platform.

Related: I don’t think Tesla starts extensive work on the Mexico factory before Nov 6th, and in the interim probably continues advancing plans on additional next gen factories, one in Europe and one in Asia, in addition to finishing the first next gen/unboxed line in GigaTexas. There will highly likely be a GigaMexico at the chosen location of some sort, but it might not be the core high volume North American factory for the next gen platform as initially intended.

 

[EQC_]

Tesla Litigation Department

teslamotorsclub.com

I assume since the Reuters article was a "lie" that Elon will use his "hardcore litigation" department to file a lawsuit.

Technically, even if there is zero truth to it, Reuters didn't lie. They merely reported what their "sources" told them, and then added their own thoughts/predictions/evaluations.

As long as the "sources" and "messages" exist, even if they were wrong and/or misinterpretted, then Reuters is probably protected.

First lines of the story:

"Tesla has canceled the long-promised inexpensive car that investors have been counting on to drive its growth into a mass-market automaker, according to three sources familiar with the matter and company messages seen by Reuters.

The automaker will continue developing self-driving robotaxis on the same small-vehicle platform, the sources said."

 

[Knightshade]

I mean, logistically and strategically, many if not all of the initial 1,000's of robotaxis are much likelier to be sold to the Boring Company first for the Las Vegas Loop project, no?

No?

Boring still isn't allowed to use even basic AP in the tunnels because of local regulations

 

[Linkmeup]

Huh, this might be a little newsworthy:

"The Joint Office of Energy and Transportation (Joint Office) is thrilled to announce the opening of the first electric vehicle (EV) charging station funded by the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) Formula Program in Maine. The eight Tesla Supercharger ports at a shopping center in Rockland, ME, support EVs with SAE J3400 and CCS connectors and are part of the state’s Recharge Maine initiative. Five of those ports are funded with $18 million in NEVI funds authorized through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to develop new chargers at several sites across the state."

First NEVI Funded EV Charging Station Opens in Maine · Joint Office of Energy and Transportation

The opening of the first NEVI funded EV charging station in the Pine Tree State brings the state closer to reaching its climate goals for all residents.

driveelectric.gov

Also, from the NEVI program in Oklahoma:

Oklahoma Transportation Commission approves first round of National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure program

oklahoma.gov

Another in Colorado:

Governor Polis, Colorado Energy Office Announce $21 Million to Expand Colorado’s Nation-Leading EV Charging Network | Colorado Governor Jared Polis

This second federally funded round of DCFC grants creates 290 direct-current fast-charger ports at 46 sites across Colorado

www.colorado.gov

 

[gtrplyr1]

Robotaxi program will shift focus off of P&D numbers and get WS to realize that Tesla is NOT just a car company.

Something that most of us on this site have realized for a long time.

 

[wipster]

Always 6 months away lol

Better than 2 weeks!

It's going to be wild between now and April 23rd.

 

[Fred42]

I would define this as news. Correct me if wrong.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776351450542768368

Yes and it's interesting, but it's the software that matters. If they have the software, they could use modified Y's as RT's and do fine. Without the software, the RT prototype is just a future museum piece. The RT prototype is just the magician's attractive assistant, it seems to me. But if the magic is real, it doesn't matter.

 

[SO16]

I wish Elon would have waited until the call to reveal that.

 

[traxila]

I wish Elon would have waited until the call to reveal that.

Think his hand was forced today.

 

[Stretch2727]

It's ARK. The math never checks out.

Yeah, but even if it is 10% of $1.25M that is way more than they can make on a car today.

My biggest concern is the size of the market. I think some are assuming a large % people will give up their personal car and move to robotaxi. I can tell you I am not one of them. Yeah, I might use for a night out or a trip to the airport but I will not give up my personal car even if the robotaxi is free.

 

[Xepa777]

This is what I came here for. It’s so damn obvious that the article is true and Tesla has prioritized robotaxi for release, and reading everyone here cope about it

Fact that Elon put on what Sawyer said should make it obvious for even the most hardcore of Elon fanboys. It’s in the friggen book that Elon has always been obsessed with a robotaxi based on an FSD system that has 1 intervention every 30 miles vs the probably needed 10,000 to be economical when factoring for insurance claims.

Shout out to those who downvoted me (@Krugerrand who is perpetually wrong on everything) when I am proven right literally hours later

Amateur hour that Reuters forced Elon to make this announcement to probably the surprise of half his leadership and engineering team lmao

 

[Krugerrand]

AH jump of $4 on the Robotaxi reveal tweet

So let me get this straight. Down several percent earlier today that Gen 3 being passed over for Robotaxi.

AH date given for reveal of Robotaxi and up several percent.

Do I have that right?

 

[unk45]

I just discovered moments ago that the Tesla site I found is actually fake and points to a non-tesla company. My elation has turned to dismay. Really, I should not have been so gullible.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

How much of the 138 million-and-counting After Hours volume is a function of legitimate closing clearing data, how much of options settlements, and how much is from those reacting to the news?

To clarify it's closer to 4.5M shares in after hours trading with 138M being total volume including after hours. I initially read your post and had to go check again thinking I just missed a huge volume of purchases. Certainly a lot of call sellers may have held their $165+ strike calls and they'll learn that it's always wise to close out 0dtm calls/puts to protect against after hours shenanigans

 

[Linkmeup]

My biggest concern is the size of the market. I think some are assuming a large % people will give up their personal car and move to robotaxi. I can tell you I am not one of them. Yeah, I might use for a night out or a trip to the airport but I will not give up my personal car even if the robotaxi is free.

IMO, user segments I can think of:

- no car, commute
- no car, long distance
- car owned, but shared only btw family/friends
- car owned, not shared at all
- commercial: remote work, freight, logistics

 

[Paul_SF]

8/8 is definitely a deliberate choice for the Chinese market. Great choice of numbers.

China will be the biggest market for them robots and probably a Chinese manufacturer will be the 1st to pay for FSD licensing.

Edit:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776360940273123625

 

[Xepa777]

Robotaxi program will shift focus off of P&D numbers and get WS to realize that Tesla is NOT just a car company.

Something that most of us on this site have realized for a long time.

1) do you have FSD? Because I do and it’s nowhere close to Tesla assuming legal liability for accidents in a robotaxi

2) have you been around since 2017? Because almost a decade later and it’s the same story.