Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Tesla settled the Walter Huang AP death case.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Tesla settled the Walter Huang AP death case.
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Musskiah
DisGruntled
One could conclude softening EV demand without the appropriate facts. Allow me to provide them:
The cumulative U.S. inventory (see below) is similar to peak inventory throughout Q323 and Q423. MX inventory has improved, as well as M3. MY demand is soft, yes, which is exemplified by the deep MY discounts in the US only. The demand for the other three models seem to be as good or better than with recent historical trends. Blanket statements like "EV demand is soft" misses the point I have just articulated, because it is not wholly true. This is also true of Q223 (not pictured) which looks similar to 2023-07-14 below, where M3 MX and MS all remain stable. Of course, as M3 Highland ramps, we should watch this chart to ensure the refresh continues to draw demand.
The point is this: we are talking 6000MY inventory vehicles in the US being discounted $5-7k. We are talking a $32-42M maximum possible discount. This is like 1.5% of all Teslas that will be sold in Q2. These discounts are a rounding error (especially in light of Energy Revenue explosion which will eclipse thes discounts [pun intended Eclipse Day]). If these levels remain stable, within just a couple quarters, Austin and Fremont lines have to go down in quick succession to retool for Juniper, while concurrently interest rates drop - this should solve the temporary build up in MY inventory over the long run. Also, Tesla will want substantial MY inventory going into the MY refresh.
Lastly, remember Tesla has stated time and again that they WANT to maintain inventory to flatten the wave. I think we can see below inventories become less wave-like.
I open the floor for those who want to kill my hopium vibe. J/K I love the banter. Thanks everyone sincerely for the counter arguments. The healthy back-and-forth discussion is what I love about this place!
CUMULATIVE US INVENTORY 4/23-PRESENT
Europe is hardly out of the ordinary, well within historical norms, hence no deep MY discounts. My concern would be M3 refresh isn't taking hold if M3 inventories continue to rise.
CUMULATIVE EUROPEAN INV 4/23-PRES
CHINA LESS THAN 500 CUMULATIVE. ITS NORMAL, SO I DIDNT SHOW IT.
SOURCE: Tesla New Inventory Counts, aggregated at a Europe level
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Musskiah
DisGruntled
I agree a super long range MY is unlikely, in the US at least, which is why I said "over 500mi miles of range potential in MY." However, as battery supply ramps, they may revisit this little baby... Tesla files for a near 400-mile Model Y in China
Remember CATL has a 80GWh factory that has been ramping for over a year adjacent to Tesla in Shanghai...
CATL seen constructing new battery production facility in China
CATL continues to expand battery production in China. Its newest facility, coming online later this year, is currently in rapid construction.
www.google.com
As competition heats up in China, Telsa may need to pull out all the stops.
Thanks for the Ocean-to-Ocean info! Super interesting, I wasn't aware.
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Musskiah
DisGruntled
There is some indication they could be close to 50k annualized runrate, though it isn't a certainty. Tesla produces 1k Cybertrucks' worth of 4680 cells at Giga Texas last week
SunCatcher
Member
My "sources" tell me there's a Tesla Trunk Monkey being developed that will cure that behavior very quickly;
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I was sure they would fight this one to the bitter end
Yes, but whom did he run over? Was he on Autopilot?
Boring Tunnel costs for a compact Robotaxi are another consideration.
Vehicle width and height determine tunnel diameter, which has a big impact on tunnelling costs.
Vehicle length determines how many vehicles can fit in a tunnel, and hence how many tunnels are needed.
Should they have vertical car elevators, width, length and weight are the key parameters.
I am not claiming this a current plan, but Tesla would be well aware of these considerations, and may prefer to keep their options open.
A smaller diameter tunnel built for Robtaxis would not be able to accommodate S/X, 3/Y and Cybertruck.
IMO the most logical configuration for a dense urban environment is one larger tunnel for all vehicles, and a number of smaller diameter tunnels for Robotaxis, by travelling in the smaller tunnels Robotaxis free up space in the main larger tunnel.
Vehicle width and height determine tunnel diameter, which has a big impact on tunnelling costs.
Vehicle length determines how many vehicles can fit in a tunnel, and hence how many tunnels are needed.
Should they have vertical car elevators, width, length and weight are the key parameters.
I am not claiming this a current plan, but Tesla would be well aware of these considerations, and may prefer to keep their options open.
A smaller diameter tunnel built for Robtaxis would not be able to accommodate S/X, 3/Y and Cybertruck.
IMO the most logical configuration for a dense urban environment is one larger tunnel for all vehicles, and a number of smaller diameter tunnels for Robotaxis, by travelling in the smaller tunnels Robotaxis free up space in the main larger tunnel.
MOD NOTE: Re "free speech." This is as good a place as any to remind all that I set this site up with extremely specific rules as to what may and what may not be written here. Think of it as a benevolent tyrrany. You are even permitted to X out that "benevolent" if you wish: that's how benevolent I am.
I was by no means making an argument in Reuters's favor. I was more commenting on how journalists and their publishers keep getting away with falsehoods about Tesla, as long as they claim there are "sources." ...."We were only reporting what our precious sources told us...and no, you don't get to know who the sources are."
My use of the word "technically" was a half-effort reference to the old "technically correct" meme from Futurama, and I didn't mean it as a compliment or defense of Reuters:
“The point is this: we are talking 6000MY inventory vehicles in the US being discounted $5-7k. We are talking a $32-42M maximum possible discount. This is like 1.5% of all Teslas that will be sold in Q2. These discounts are a rounding error”
Are you assuming that Tesla will stop giving inventory discounts after the current inventory (the 6000 number you mention) is sold? They had inventory discounts all through quarter one, as inventory was continually sold and resupplied.
With steer-by-wire the wheel can be disabled via software and can eventually fold into the dashboard.
With a direct linkage steering, some clamping mechanism could disable access to the wheel and pedals, preventing them from moving.. But adding that clamping mechanism and the start of every shift, and removing it at the end would be a nuisance..
Touching the wheel and pedals could simply invalidate the trip and render the customer legally liable for any accident that happens.
When the tech is mature how much effort will it take to have removable physical controls on all existing models via a refresh? Clearly not impossible.
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Musskiah
DisGruntled
Tesla did NOT offer discounts this deep all throughout Q1. They made a temporary $1000 price cut in early Feb. They began to offer more deep inventory discounts late in March - mainly MY 7-seaters and really just the last 10 days as verified by my friend. I know because I was in the market for a MY here in Cleveland (a single data point I understand). Then they raised prices $1000 on MY across the board earlier this month; this was announced in Mar this would happen April 1 after the temporary discount. I've been buying and selling Teslas every S3XY model except S accross the last decade. Tesla offers inventory discounts from time to time, as well as other incentives. They will probably do something similar the end of this Q. What else is new? This does not connotate demand issues necessarily.
Again right now, just to keep us in context here, we are ONLY talking MY (at these deep discount levels) and ONLY in the US, and ONLY this Q. If inventories remain constant, that's what we want 25-35 days in inventory has been Tesla's kind of mean over the past 5 years (showed this in a previous post). We ended this Q with 28 days. Keeping inventory in this range, and ASP (and TTM FCF always) are what I'm eyeing this and next Q.
Moreover, as we all know the clients always right. If they want to pull on the steering or punch the accelerator you need to let them do that.
Just like children’s ‘cars’ shopping carts in supermarkets, let those passenger move the wheels as much as they desire!
Hey the robo taxi market is going to be competitive, you have to please the customer!
Side note on that last point about brake rotors/pads:
If you don't use them much, the pads and rotors on any car can last a long time even without regenerative braking....so the statement Elon made is perfectly reasonable.
An honest reader/commenter would recognize that this was a tweet, not an essay meant to cover all extremes and edge cases. Elon was replying to somebody who didn't seem to know about regenerative braking at all. Honestly, I have seen people talk about "wearing out the regenerative brakes" or even suggesting that for the Model 2, Tesla could "save cost by removing the regenerative brakes." There were, and still are, plenty of people who don't understand the basics of an EV...so Elon was explaining how an EV works and the potential implication..
In the real world, we know there there are many Teslas that have had their brake pads and rotors replaced by an owner who is a bit of a "spirited driver" or perhaps just prefers to use the brake pedal instead of mostly "one pedal driving." And of course folks who track or autocross their Teslas are replacing even more often. That is logical to expect. Physics exists, and regenerative braking can't cover everything. But, I have no doubt that a judiciously driven Tesla without some mechanical brake-related flaw can potenailly go "the life of the car" without needing to replace the brakes.
If I want to go the "technically correct" route, I can also point out that Elon tweeted that brake pads on "a Tesla" never "need" to be replaced. It is logical to assume a "need" might arise under some usage scenarios...and Elon did NOT say tha brakes would last forever on "every single Tesla, no matter how you drive it." Again, in context, an honest and thoughtful reader of a short tweet would understand the intended implications -- a reasonable person would not expect 100% accuracy including all extremes and edge cases in a brief tweet.
My personal anecdote:
Google tells me that most cars get 30-70,000 miles out of a set of brake pads in a gas car, but it also points out that "some can last as long as 100,000 miles."
In the right conditions, on a regular old gas car, I've gone 150,000 miles, repeatably.
I bought an automatic 2008 Honda Fit new and still own it. 340,000 miles of mostly open-road driving: a 65-mile-each-way commute between a mountain and a desert, mostly 55 mph roads with only a few stops. I drive carefully...trying to coast a ways before I need to apply the brakes at the stops I can predict. Of course I use the brakes when they are needed.
I have replaced the front brake pads twice, once at around 150,000 miles, and I'm pretty sure the second time was at over 300,000 miles. I smoothed out the rotors each time, but did not replace them...so the rotors are still original. The rear has drum brakes, and I have not had need for any maintenance or replacements on those.
Sure, a Honda Fit at 2500 lbs is much lighter than a Tesla. It's also only got 15 inch wheels with small rotors and pads, and it has zero regeneration...and the Tesla 4-wheel disc brakes to further spread the wear, while the Honda is relying mostly on the front disks with some stopping power coming from the rear drums. And I ddrop 4000-6000 feet in elevation on most drives (and then obviously drive back up on the round trip).
So...yeah, if I can get 150,000 miles on one set of pads and 340,000+ miles on rotors and drum brakes, I sure as heck believe most EV's could exceed that and approach "the life of the car" if driven carefully.
Google tells me that most cars get 30-70,000 miles out of a set of brake pads in a gas car, but it also points out that "some can last as long as 100,000 miles."
In the right conditions, on a regular old gas car, I've gone 150,000 miles, repeatably.
I bought an automatic 2008 Honda Fit new and still own it. 340,000 miles of mostly open-road driving: a 65-mile-each-way commute between a mountain and a desert, mostly 55 mph roads with only a few stops. I drive carefully...trying to coast a ways before I need to apply the brakes at the stops I can predict. Of course I use the brakes when they are needed.
I have replaced the front brake pads twice, once at around 150,000 miles, and I'm pretty sure the second time was at over 300,000 miles. I smoothed out the rotors each time, but did not replace them...so the rotors are still original. The rear has drum brakes, and I have not had need for any maintenance or replacements on those.
Sure, a Honda Fit at 2500 lbs is much lighter than a Tesla. It's also only got 15 inch wheels with small rotors and pads, and it has zero regeneration...and the Tesla 4-wheel disc brakes to further spread the wear, while the Honda is relying mostly on the front disks with some stopping power coming from the rear drums. And I ddrop 4000-6000 feet in elevation on most drives (and then obviously drive back up on the round trip).
So...yeah, if I can get 150,000 miles on one set of pads and 340,000+ miles on rotors and drum brakes, I sure as heck believe most EV's could exceed that and approach "the life of the car" if driven carefully.
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Honestly what's the benefit to a government. From the govt POV
You kill your national car manufacturers. HORRIBLE
You kill road tax, fuel tax, registration, etc etc...HORRIBLE
Cause congestion in urban areas...HORRIBLE
Kill taxi driver employement/gig workers etc....HORRIBLE
Only positives is a slight decrease in mortality & injury.
I actually don't see any benefit if I am the govt of Indonesia or Thailand or India or Korea or Germany etc etc.
Musskiah
DisGruntled
Yeah, I mean how bad can the economic costs possibly get?
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