Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FreqFlyer]

All this talk of the Robotaxis has me thinking of this Donald Fagen song about the future.

 

[Ocelot]

Well it is definitely frustrating times. While it is usually media moving the goalposts, this time it was Tesla. We all saw it coming with respect to sales/deliveries. Guidance on this front has been lacking and for years was reiterated as good years/bad years but average of 50 per cent growth. But then the bad years hit and it seemingly all changed with Elon's comment of Tesla being worth zero without Robotaxi. As an investor some clarification around that would be great. Roadster? Gen 3? Semi development and existing platforms >>>all zero without autonomous driving?

Sold a chunk today for first time ever. Hard not to look back and say 'if I only sold when". That's ok though. My feeling is it can go lower before going higher and can always put money back in. I am ok with missing the next 20 per cent run up and then moving back in when there is some more certainty over the direction the company is going. Been here long enough though to no, 'certainty' is rarely a thing.

Robotaxi day in August? To myself that is putting a date far enough out to "motivate" your employees with the understanding serious work needs to get done to get there, wherever' there' may be. Maybe if there never was a 'battery day' I would have some more faith, but at this point with the seemingly stagnation on battery development and recent changeover that is hard to have. Maybe if the Semi was out and rolling. Maybe if the roadster hit the streets. Maybe if Cybertruck was no so delayed.

Everything seems to eventually get there, but there ae so many things on the back burner, for myself I feel I have lost some faith. The question of what if FSD takes another 5 years and what will the stock do in those five years is the main one I have right now.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

He’s cleaning house. So, what? He’s done it multiple times before, he’s quite likely to do it again. It’s a positive for the company all around. Deadweight must be removed from the company for it to remain healthy and move forward with agility.

I think this is more than just cleaning house. It seems like they are also doing a remodel (ie some significant changes to the company/business).

 

[Drumheller]

I would not have taken my company into that position.

So you've never had a large company

 

[2daMoon]

If Tesla goes all in on the Robotaxi (RT) for the next generation, who buys it? Does Tesla sell RTs to consumers/businesses? Or does Tesla not sell them and operates their own fleet of RTs?

Yes

I could see the value of owning a RT so you don't have to wait for one to come get you - you just jump in and go.

Yes

If Tesla operates their own fleet, that is a ton of money they will need to build out the fleet. Where does that money come from? 1m RTs at a cost of, say, $20K each is $20B. If it all works out they will be money printers, but until then, that's a lot of cash they'll need beyond what they have now. Debt? Another stock offering?

Yes, from all possible sources who want in. (and Tesla already has more than 20B in the bank, right now)

 

[growler23]

I love everything about this. Everything. This feels like the good ole days at Tesla. It has the feel of Elon sleeping on the factory floor and everyone having to explain their worth. Many here won’t get it or understand, but the whole shakeup going on is signature Elon on a mission. It’s quite literally the most bullish AF scarlet neon flashing sign.

People have been complaining about Elon being distracted and wanting Elon back. Well, this IS Elon back at full steam. I don’t want to hear one complaint from that group of people, because you just got your wish.

Agreed - this now sounds like those times reported in the Isaacson bio where Elon goes into "beast mode", drives ahead, damns the torpedoes, berates and/or fires ANYONE (even those close to him) not 100% producing at the rate he thinks is required or moving in the direction he sees, sleeps at the factory, walks down the line spraypainting "X" on the robots that are slowing things down, decrees that a tent manufacturing line be created since construction is too slow... and changes the course of the world.
Once again, hold on to your butts, people. The ride is in motion.

 

[2daMoon]

I think this is more than just cleaning house. It seems like they are also doing a remodel (ie some significant changes to the company/business).

Have you ever watched one of those "makeover" shows?

Maybe this is the next episode of the Tesla version.

 

[wtlloyd]

Somebody whack the console, this thread has stuck on repeat.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Hopefully Elon doesn't throw away the Semi too ;-)
"EU parliament just voted to limit truck emissions further:
-40% by 2030
-65% by 2035
-90% by 2040"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780148019452588390

EU Parliament adopts 90% phase-out of new diesel trucks by 2040

Average emissions of new trucks will have to be reduced by 90% by 2040, compared to 2019, the European Parliament decided on Wednesday (10 April), adopting a law that will drastically reduce the number of new diesel trucks.

www.euractiv.com

 

[cliff harris]

regarding robotaxi scheduling:
Right now taxis/ubers are pretty dumb. Its just a big bunch of random unreliable humans, who maybe have 'some' intuition as to when there is a lot of demand, and where, but its fuzzy, and human and forgetful.
Now think of online ads before the privacy clampdowns. Those ads for EXACTLY what you were thinking of buying, that seemed to follow you everywhere. Thats even old-school (pre chatgpt) AI managing to profile what you want with creepy accuracy.
Apply the same to robotaxi deployment. I'm going to the theater tonight. I'm sure a modern GPT style AI probably knew that before I even booked the tickets. They probably can guess that, me being me, I'll go to a restaurant first, and thus probably need to be there by 6PM.

Without messy forgetful lazy humans in the loop, robotaxis are going to be VERY good at being exactly where you want them, when you want them.

re:stock price.
I'm getting 'spacex just before a booster landed properly' vibes. Impossible things seem impossible right up until someone does it .

 

[Ocelot]

You are using a single scenario in the worst city to try to make the argument that RTs will not replace ICE cars meaningfully. I call hogwash...

There are 132M full time employees in the US, only about 35% of the population, many of whom do not go home at 5pm (all you have to do is think of all the professions that work long or odd hours and businesses open til 2, 4, 6pm etc...) - so for starters your scenario does not account for 65% of the population that needs transportation without full time employment.

Furthermore, LA is the exception, not the rule - it will require further ingenuity to solve, obviously. It is the toughest case for sustainability, to be sure. So will DC, NY, Chicago, etc. FACT: ONLY 42M Americans live in the 34 largest (over 500k people) cities. Perhaps another 20M or so commute into them for work or pleasure. MOST OF THESE 34 cities (such as Cleveland and Columbus and Cincinnati) do NOT experince meaningful rush hour traffic that compares in any way to LA. Your theory does not hold water here in the largest metropolitan areas of Ohio, for example. This is likely true of over half the states.

Aside from these 34 top tier cities, there are literally hundreds of small and middle cities in the US that do not experince the type of traffic, even in the worst hours, that you describe. In these small to mid-sized cities, where over a quarter of the population lives (the rest, aside from the 42M is large cities over 500k, are suburban and rural), RTs will begin to replace ICE cars immediately in the small and middle cities as well as large swaths of suburban and rural America, to be sure. The effect will not be ZERO as you seem to insinuate. We can argue about how huge this effect will be, but we can agree it will be a nonzero amount.

As a result, the world will become more sustainable. As privately owned cars become less common, the infrastructure such as parking lots and parking garages will be replaced. We would hope urban architects and engineers create something more harmonious is their place.

Have you considered that maybe you "don't see" the well-accepted theory that RTs WILL replace millions of ICE vehicles quickly, because you have to think about the whole picture instead of just an exceptional example of a mess of a city with some of the worst traffic on Earth?

Not sure about Cleveland, Columbus or Cincinnati, but having lived in multiple different cities from small populations to mega populations, one can safely assume traffic at the start and the end of the work day is the heaviest. It is all relative. While it might not be LA, if your drive is 7 minutes with no traffic and 20 or 25 minutes with traffic, you are still going to want your own vehicle as to maximize efficiency of your time. Picking up your kids? Hockey Bag in the trunk? Many scenarios where having your own vehicle makes sense. There will be displacement but meaningful (greater than 20 per cent) displacement of personal vehicles (electric or ICE) for RT will likely be way over a decade away.

 

[cusetownusa]

You aren't thinking large enough!

The economics of TaaS makes it more financially appealing than actual car ownership. Meaning with an EV RT fleet, the costs per mile for consumers should be cheaper than owning and driving your own car.

This is why so many people are so bullish on TaaS. Historically new products which are more efficient financially for consumers always displaces old tech. It's happened over and over, again and again, with many tech breakthroughs. Given enough time, TaaS will very likely reduce the auto sales market to a mere fraction of what it is today.

What good will those cheap Chinese EV's be if no one is buying them ten years from now because almost everyone is now using TaaS?

This might be what Elon is considering, if the rumors of scrapping the $25K car turn out to be true.

I find it hard to believe that people will give up car ownership in large numbers. Scrapping the $25k car I think would be a huge mistake. As it is, Tesla doesn't have many options for reasonably priced mass produced cars. A sedan and a small crossover, that's it. Very disappointed that they seem to be going all in on RT and not releasing some new products in different segments.

While I think my Y is a great car, Tesla still doesn't have a standard SUV Telluride type vehicle or even something smaller like a Grand Cherokee type vehicle. I keep waiting to replace my wifes ICE car hoping that Tesla will release something that fits what we want, otherwise I will eventually be forced to buy a Kia or Rivian (when they have NACS). (I will not buy another ICE car)

 

[Snerruc]

Depends on how much you use it during the month and also what your streets are like. I use it in town a lot, but I also do a lot of disengagements due to the way-too-strong acceleration and braking at the last second. FSD really needs to look ahead farther than the end of its nose. It really shouldn't rocket off the line faster than the nearby cars.
V12 is far smoother than V11, but both versions use at least 50-70 more Wh/mi in town. (320 vs 250 2020 X LR+). Even though electricity is less expensive than gas, I still don't want to use more.

I agree. The specs on the cameras show the car is very nearsighted. In the country I’m often looking a half mile or more ahead. I drive a lot on two lane rural roads with passing necessary. The car has to move to where the center of the windshield is clear of the truck it’s passing and then can’t see more than about 1000 feet at best..NOT GOOD! A long range camera in the drivers side mirror housing would be a godsend. Also, my S is at least 10% less efficient on FSD.

 

[STARR X]

What I hope to see…

On August 8th, the robotaxi and its manufacturing processes will be unveiled, and everyone will be amazed. But it will not be released until the end of 2025, at the earliest. In the meantime, Tesla needs sell more cars and FSU needs the miles to continue to improve.

So, they will also introduce their Tesla Network (rideshare platform) and offer unreal lease deals that combine the car & FSD and unlimited miles. As FSD does not lose value and maybe even gain in value as it improves, leasing like this might make sense. Initially, payments to the drivers will be better than Uber & Lyft are currently paying, and customer’s rides will be cheaper than the competition too.

This is how I see them evolving to get to the autonomous robotaxi.

 

[Linkmeup]

oh, TSLA is down. That explains all these posts today

 

[Musskiah]

Not sure about Cleveland, Columbus or Cincinnati, but having lived in multiple different cities from small populations to mega populations, one can safely assume traffic at the start and the end of the work day is the heaviest. It is all relative. While it might not be LA, if your drive is 7 minutes with no traffic and 20 or 25 minutes with traffic, you are still going to want your own vehicle as to maximize efficiency of your time. Picking up your kids? Hockey Bag in the trunk? Many scenarios where having your own vehicle makes sense. There will be displacement but meaningful (greater than 20 per cent) displacement of personal vehicles (electric or ICE) for RT will likely be way over a decade away.

I'm not denying there are busy times in all cities. It was was suggested that the economic utility of a RT was not several times that of a car that sits idle for most of the day. This is, just at face value, false. The notion that somehow rushhour in LA, or any other city for that matter, makes RTs unable to deliver more utility throughout the rest of the day against the alternative (a car that sits idle) makes no logical sense. Absolutely the RT that is active will move more bodies than the sitting vehicle. Period.

 

[unk45]

I would not have taken my company into that position.

I will boldly suggest that no rapidly rising company I have ever directly seen or heard of has avoided some layoffs at some times. FWIW, over my four decades or so, there have been many. Rapid growth investible results in too much growth in some areas, too little in others and having some people who underperform. It is always thus; always. Never an exception.
It would be an astounding accomplishment were any such entity to have existed.

 

[Knightshade]

Seems relevant to the routine dusting-off of low performers vs the significant overhaul of company discussion

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780262410713968925

 

[Snerruc]

Ok, so far so good... because yes what I'm writing is current reality in law.



I suppose that depends how you define "rapid"?

J3016 has been updated every 2-3 years for at least a decade now. But the revisions tend not to be wholesale re-writes...and the things we are talking about (OEDR, DDT fallback, and defined ODD) are foundational elements.

I'm not sure what new standard you think anyone (but Tesla) would be interested in that discards those concepts entirely, let alone rapidly?

Ditto lawmakers who don't understand any of this for the most part so will be far less likely to hew to some brand new unknown standards doc than they one they've had on the books for years. Even then changing existing laws is also, typically, a years long process... (in some states it HAS to be because the state legislature doesn't even meet annually-- Texas being somewhat famous for this)





Again what are you citing as rapid?

Surely not by 8/8 this year.




Except currently the definition of "passes responsible performance, stability and emergency requirements" is... complies with J3016.

In every single state that allows self-driving.

You've yet to suggest what the alternative to that is, and what would motivate a state to switch to it?





I'm not sure how to parse the above.

Compliance with J3016 is largely self-declared. In most states there are no "regulators" that check, nor is the SAE directly involved. (CA is a weird outlier)

Outside of CA, you, as a company, state your vehicle is L4 J3016 compliant, can obey all traffic laws, and is insured.

That's it. You can now deploy it as a robotaxi broadly speaking.... (there's a few states where you have to submit as form saying the above, but no proof is required.... and a few more you need to submit a second document to law enforcement with your "plan" for how the no-driver vehicle will interact with cops, but that's it).

The problem isn't Tesla needs anyone to agree their car is L4. The problem is it's fundamentally not, lacking numerous specific requirements to be so right now.

if Tesla wants to deploy driverless cars- they will need to meet those specific requirements (complete OEDR, DDT fallback ability, and defined L4 ODD)

if they HAD those today they could deploy some RTS today




Ok... my bad for replying in line hence my above questions about how you're defining rapidly.

If as it seems right here you're defining it as "probably not this decade" I don't think we have any argument.

Honestly I think I might be MORE optimistic than you in that regard, I think it's POSSIBLE Tesla gets the missing pieces in place before end of decade.

But by 8/8 this year? Nope.

In Florida the law says if a company is willing to assume all responsibility for the actions of the car, it’s legal to drive. Nothing about how it does it.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I agree. The specs on the cameras show the car is very nearsighted. In the country I’m often looking a half mile or more ahead. I drive a lot on two lane rural roads with passing necessary. The car has to move to where the center of the windshield is clear of the truck it’s passing and then can’t see more than about 1000 feet at best..NOT GOOD! A long range camera in the drivers side mirror housing would be a godsend. Also, my S is at least 10% less efficient on FSD.

Good point so a bit limited. I have the same question about left turn lanes while the opposite direction blocks my view. Somehow it still goes for it. Maybe 5 yrs out the elite FSD will have Optimus driving.