Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

How does this (0% loans) affect vehicle margins, or does it? Maybe a different expense on the books like bitcoin for example?

Good move if so.

Edit: Just another wild ChatGPT goose chase, nothing to see here. Thanks @unk45.

OK, since nobody bit, here's what Chat said below. Sales strategy is in play, no demand worries folks, lots of levers.

Revenue Recognition: The sale of a vehicle is recognized at the point of sale, and the total revenue generally includes the price at which the car is sold, regardless of the financing terms. Therefore, whether the car is purchased with cash, a standard finance rate, or a promotional 0% interest rate, the revenue recognized from the sale remains unchanged.

Cost of Financing: Tesla has to bear the cost of capital for offering 0% financing. This cost can be significant but is considered a part of financial operations separate from the direct cost of vehicle production and sale.

 

[anthonyj]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780146212877791516

which one is yours ? mine is first row 4th position with open tonneau cover

Mine is the one rotting at the dealer while all the Cybertrucks rolling off the line now are probably fixed and will be delivered before mine is.

 

[cab]

FWIW this varies by manager. I've worked for a fair # of very big tech companies and see managers who handle this as you suggest.

I've also seen managers who pick the names of the employees most a threat to their own jobs in ways outside of them being bad employees (often the opposite)

I've also seen managers who do it straight seniority- last hired first fired.


Meritocracy is an ideal but as any org gets large it's rarely a reality.

Meritocracy? I thought that was a myth - like Bigfoot, the Loch Ness Monster or Fiscally Responsible Government.

 

[Zero CO2]

Mine is the one rotting at the dealer while all the Cybertrucks rolling off the line now are probably fixed and will be delivered before mine is.

SS does not rot it only rusts

 

[hobbes]

Not sure if it's been discussed, but how is Tesla planning to grow volumes in Q2 and the second half of 2024? They just ended inventory discounts and raised prices $1k on April 1st. They previously had a demand problem (supply > sales) as @Troy has noted since late 2022. Increasing price only decreases demand if you aren't materially changing the product you're selling.

Any theories on how (or if) Tesla will grow unit volumes the rest of the year?

Not all factors are under Tesla´s control - demand went down without Tesla chaning anything (also for other EVs). At one point it will come back, people can delay buying a new car for a while but at some time they need it. Question is just when IMHO.

 

[Usain]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780146212877791516

which one is yours ? mine is first row 4th position with open tonneau cover

That's a great picture, but I don't think it proves if the CT line is running.

I'd love to see something from a Joe T. flyover that shows new ones coming out of the factory. Or maybe a pic showing there are more today than yesterday?

 

[juanmedina]

I don't think this has been posted. It got personal :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780639045623624047

 

[Usain]

OR..
stacking up at factory at prior rate until the pedal issue is fixed ..

If the line is still running then I think stacking up is fine. That would suggest the fix is probably something relatively minor.

 

[elasalle]

If the line is still running then I think stacking up is fine. That would suggest the fix is probably something relatively minor.

Yup but doesn't mean rate has increased. Infact why increase the rate if we know there is a problem

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I don't think this has been posted. It got personal :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780639045623624047

"Steve, Wisdom is chasing you, if you would just stop"

What else do you want Steve to say? He's short $TSLA..that should have stopped right there.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Hello finance people... anyone? On that 0% interest...

$8,400 would be the interest full term today using Germany's Interest rate of 6.3% on a $50K new car (per google, simple numbers).

Chat: "For a $50,000 vehicle financed at an interest rate of 6.3% over 60 months (5 years), the monthly payment would be approximately $973.63. Over the life of the loan, the total amount paid would be about $58,417.81, which includes $8,417.81 in interest."

That's over 15% of the vehicle cost avoided compared to a 0% loan. Therefore, Margins on these vehicles would be in the ~35%, right? Overall margins might move a bit, but it helps in other ways as well.

Cash heavy, their 0% loan is such a good move, and it doesn't erode sticker price.

The payment comparison is $833 vs $973 for a savings of $140/month on this loan. (We can use real numbers if you want, that's fine.)

 

[Musskiah]

Solar Roof: Pretty much a failed startup. Was supposed to be doing 1,000 installs a week many years ago. Has not happened. Product market fit isnt there.

They sacked Solar Roof growth long ago. In the biography by Isaacson, Elon made it clear that, disappointingly, they couldn't scale Solar Roof in order to drive down labor costs of the installation in order to make it price competitive. This is definitely a failed project.

Dojo: Elon just last week was saying that Tesla is one of the top 3 in Nvidia H100 composure installation. I think it’s fair to say Dojo has not played out as expected, and that isnt a giant surprise given the massive R&D budget and experience Nvidia has. Dojo may be up and running, but competitors have left it in the dust.

I don't think I understand why Dojo 1 or 2 has not played out as expected? Perhaps you could help elaborate.

4680: May be playing out similar to dojo: it was a noble goal, but the massive Chinese & Korean companies specializing in batteries have ruthlessly lowered costs to the point that the proposed savings from battery day (which haven't been achieved yet) have already been surpassed by competitors.

I think that popularizing the 4680 form factor and getting other companies to adopt it was precisely the point. As the batteries would become the bottleneck, the open competition over 4680 production will quickly drive down the cost curve, ultimately benefitting Tesla. It is a shame they haven't been able to innovate as anticipated in order to derive further efficiency and cost savings. I wouldn't say it's a failed project or startup, as Tesla led the charge, and having so much 4680 capacity now will certainly drive us towards sustainability, which ultimately fulfills Tesla's mission.

 

[CitizenKane]

I don't think this has been posted. It got personal :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780639045623624047

Oh dear, he really made a fool out of himself.

 

[2daMoon]

The problem with this theory is where are the battery’s going to come from?
The same applies to the RT as well.

It seem highly likely that battery manufacturers have by now gotten the memo that they can sell all the batteries they can produce for decades into the foreseeable future.

The supply will to continue to expand, and will be utilized as quickly as they provide them.

But, just in case of growth not keeping up, Tesla will also be adding to their own battery production at no less than three locations globally. Nevada, Texas, and Germany, on top of their standing offer to buy everything anyone else can produce that meets their requirements.

 

[hobbes]

Tesla gutted the Berlin battery factory when the IRA invaded the US. So those batteries will be made in Austin since they will get inflation reduction money from the US Government.

I'd guess that new battery production equipment for Berlin is on order somewhere.

Several other battery factories in Europe were cancelled for the same reason.

True, but there have been some hints lately that there is some level of battery cell production in Berlin now:

• Andre Thierig, the plant manager of Giga Berlin said this in an interview:
  "We´re just starting with battery cell production"
  
  
• Jordan´s (TheLimitingFactor) take from this is they are manufacturing part of the cell to ship it to Austin to finish it and still get IRA incentives
  EDIT: Thierig actually continues in the interview above when asked about local cell production: "We are currently producing the first sub-components here which we are shipping to America, but not yet for local production" and that they will "one day" produce everything in place (doesn´t sound like too soon...)
  
  
• The former youtuber TeslaKidGrünheide (Silas Heineken) who recently did an internship at GigaBerlin said he worked in cell production
  
  
• These pictures of the cell building from a recent drone flyover (just for fun):
  
  
  

Makes sense IMHO that they rerouted the first machines to Austin to get a head start there but have received additional ones for Berlin by now.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Rivian cuts 1% of workforce in second round of layoffs this year

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) -Electric vehicle maker Rivian said on Wednesday it cut about 1% of its workforce - the second round of job cuts this year - as it reduces cost amid a broader slowdown in EV demand. "This was a difficult decision, but a necessary one to support our goal to be gross...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[FreqFlyer]

Tesla layoffs include 14% of Buffalo workers, WARN notice shows

Under pressure from falling sales and an intensifying price war for EVs, Tesla announced its latest round of jobs cuts on Monday in an internal memo that was seen by Reuters. The notice on Wednesday was issued under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act which requires...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[brantse]

I'm not quite sure what to make of this, but seems like Elon is really trying to pitch his case for his comp plan.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465924048353/tm2326076d16_defa14a.htm?utm_campaign=investor_relations&utm_content=investor_relations&utm_medium=email&utm_source=operational_trigger&utm_term=quarterlyupdate

 

[AndrewZ]

I'm not quite sure what to make of this, but seems like Elon is really trying to pitch his case for his comp plan.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465924048353/tm2326076d16_defa14a.htm?utm_campaign=investor_relations&utm_content=investor_relations&utm_medium=email&utm_source=operational_trigger&utm_term=quarterlyupdate

Very interesting to see this website lol

I like how they cite an almost 1,100% valuation increase but leave out the 37% drop since the end of 2023.

And half of the $12billion net income cited is the deferred tax asset thing they did in Q4.

 

[2daMoon]

I'm not quite sure what to make of this, but seems like Elon is really trying to pitch his case for his comp plan.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465924048353/tm2326076d16_defa14a.htm?utm_campaign=investor_relations&utm_content=investor_relations&utm_medium=email&utm_source=operational_trigger&utm_term=quarterlyupdate

That is the Board taking steps to avoid some lame-brained court ruling attempting to base itself on there not being information and data made public and to inform the shareholders who would otherwise blindly have been found to have voted opposite what they would have, had they not been better informed.

Which, the actual vote at the Annual Meeting will demonstrate one way or the other.