Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

I wonder if there's not as much focus on Mfg costs if the end game is RT. Say if the value as a RT is $100K, and unboxed saves $10K but pushes out the program several months (as compared to using conventional Mfg), plus the R&D expenses, why not look at the critical path first?

Bold question - Is unboxed still worth it considering Time to Market, Value, and Mission? And if our existing vehicles can do the job with a retrofit (someday)... well, do I need to say it?

 

[Linkmeup]

Q - now that FSD is out of beta and in wide release...is all that $2B+ deferred revenue going to be realized?

 

[2daMoon]

I wonder if there's not as much focus on Mfg costs if the end game is RT. Say if the value as a RT is $100K, and unboxed saves $10K but pushes out the program several months (as compared to using conventional Mfg), plus the R&D expenses, why not look at the critical path first?

Bold question - Is unboxed still worth it considering Time to Market, Value, and Mission? And if our existing vehicles can do the job with a retrofit (someday)... well, do I need to say it?

As I understand the advantages of the unboxed method it is unlikely to have any downsides. It should reduce footprint, time, costs, and increases output. (plus other aspects detailed when it was presented)

And, they have likely been perfecting the prototype unboxed line in Texas for at least a year now.

Any extra time needed to "make is so" will be recovered quickly when put into operation.

 

[Drumheller]

I don't think this has been posted. It got personal :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780639045623624047

Multiple lies said by Steve. Went uncontested.

 

[RichardL]

That's a great picture, but I don't think it proves if the CT line is running.

I'd love to see something from a Joe T. flyover that shows new ones coming out of the factory. Or maybe a pic showing there are more today than yesterday?

Joe’s video today shows CTs leaving the factory through a new door they cut since the old exit is now blocked by the south expansion.

Joe estimated 8 or so leaving every 10 minutes while he was watching (I think they batch them according to the drivers getting back from the west side)

Also quite a few in the loading area despite all the stored examples

 

[Knightshade]

Q - now that FSD is out of beta and in wide release...is all that $2B+ deferred revenue going to be realized?

No.

Beta has no meaning whatsoever in terms of accounting.

Just covered this in another thread a bit over an hour ago- including what chunks of revenue were deferred going into Q1, and what chunks may be unlocked this quarter and the one just ended, and which are likely to remain locked for a considerable while longer.

Near-future quarterly financial projections

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[RSpanner]

Layoffs Are The Obvious But Wrong Answer To Company Problems - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! One big topic of conversation recently has been the big mass layoffs Tesla made this week. Some people woke up on Monday morning only to find out that they didn’t have a job by ... [continued]

cleantechnica.com

 

[hobbes]

Should have listened to the Andre Thierig (Giga Berlin plant manager) interview before - very informative!
switch on the youtube auto translation subtitles, works pretty good. This is of Feb 29 2024, but he says they are still ramping (!)

 

[Ellec]

Say you have a two hour round trip to the office each day, with FSD you can be working while it drives you there and back. Say you are paid $50 per hour that $100 a day or $1000-2000 a month depending on how often you are in the office, and that's just for your commute. Why wouldn't you pay $99 heck even $499 a month. I know this is a simplistic example but for a lot of people time is money and time spent driving when they could be more productive is valuable.

 

[hobbes]

Q - now that FSD is out of beta and in wide release...is all that $2B+ deferred revenue going to be realized?

@The Accountant

 

[Drumheller]

Say you have a two hour round trip to the office each day, with FSD you can be working while it drives you there and back. Say you are paid $50 per hour that $100 a day or $1000-2000 a month depending on how often you are in the office, and that's just for your commute. Why wouldn't you pay $99 heck even $499 a month. I know this is a simplistic example but for a lot of people time is money and time spent driving when they could be more productive is valuable.

1. FSD is not at a point where someone can work while it drives

2. I'd rather work 9 hours per day while enjoying music during my commute than work 11 hours per day. Companies in the USA will laugh at you if you ask them to count your working commute towards your hours.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Say you have a two hour round trip to the office each day, with FSD you can be working while it drives you there and back. Say you are paid $50 per hour that $100 a day or $1000-2000 a month depending on how often you are in the office, and that's just for your commute. Why wouldn't you pay $99 heck even $499 a month. I know this is a simplistic example but for a lot of people time is money and time spent driving when they could be more productive is valuable.

That works for level 4 or 5, and for many $99 per month would be a steal, but not level 2 which is what FSD is now.

I personally think it's worth $99 per month now, but there's obviously a lot of dissent there.

 

[uscbucsfan]

1. FSD is not at a point where someone can work while it drives

2. I'd rather work 9 hours per day while enjoying music during my commute than work 11 hours per day. Companies in the USA will laugh at you if you ask then to count your working commute towards your hours.

Salary employees can get more done, especially those who travel often.

 

[Knightshade]

Say you have a two hour round trip to the office each day, with FSD you can be working while it drives you there and back. Say you are paid $50 per hour that $100 a day or $1000-2000 a month depending on how often you are in the office, and that's just for your commute. Why wouldn't you pay $99 heck even $499 a month. I know this is a simplistic example but for a lot of people time is money and time spent driving when they could be more productive is valuable.

Or you could move someplace or change jobs to ditch the 2 hour round trip.

Also folks making the amount you're talking about aren't usually paid by the hour by their companies, they're salaried or OT exempt.

Also FSD is L2 so they can't do any of that stuff... and if it ever gets to L4 or L5 it'll cost a lot more than $99 a month.

 

[hobbes]

I hope Elon´s affirmative reply also refers to the "Tesla can keep making personal cars.."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780694674300141678

 

[Drumheller]

Salary employees can get more done, especially those who travel often.

Every time, save one, that I've given free time to an employer, it was not respected or valued. I'm done doing that and my attitude is common now.

 

[Ellec]

1. FSD is not at a point where someone can work while it drives

2. I'd rather work 9 hours per day while enjoying music during my commute than work 11 hours per day. Companies in the USA will laugh at you if you ask them to count your working commute towards your hours.

I know it's not now, but will be soonish. Also I never said anything about working 11 hours a day. How is working while travelling different than working from home or from a coffee shop etc.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I know it's not now, but will be soonish. Also I never said anything about working 11 hours a day. How is working while travelling different than working from home or a coffee shop etc.

"Soonish" is a moving target and has been for a while. I think whenever V12.4 is released and we can assess the progress it has made from 12.3 we can get an idea how fast e2e can improve. 12.3 was released about a month ago and most testers are used to waiting months for step releases, so there's no reason to assume it won't come fast and make huge progress.

 

[Todd Burch]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780376546148327690

It's hard to overstate the importance of this post. Every word is dripping with critical information:

• Not quite betting the company: The company won't go bankrupt if autonomy fails. But Elon is still taking a huge risk.
• going balls to the wall: Elon is reshaping the whole company around autonomy. Autonomy is all that matters to him right now.
• autonomy is a blindingly obvious move: This is absolutely true. The opportunity is enormous and any entrepreneur would be a fool not to go for it.
• Everything else is like variations on a horse carriage: This is also quite true. By "Everything else", Elon means any type of car without autonomy. That includes the Gen 3 consumer vehicle. Without autonomy, it's just another car. So do autonomy first.

We don't really need Elon's promised company update. He just told us the future of Tesla in one short post.

I think we can clearly see the future of $TSLA stock and it's really simple. If autonomy doesn't work, we're looking at $40 per share. If autonomy does work we could be looking at $4000 per share.

A blindingly obvious move indeed!

Completely disagree with your valuation at $40/share if autonomy fails. Nonsense. If autonomy fails, and assuming Optimus goes nowhere:

1. Tesla energy still exists.
2. Tesla still makes cars.
3. Tesla still has the best driver assistance package on earth and can sell it to any car company.
4. Tesla still owns almost all chargers considered the standard for North America.
5. Tesla still makes nearly 100% margin money on FSD sales/subscriptions.
6. Tesla still has battery factories and will have one or more lithium refineries.
7. More I’m sure.

People forget the core mission of Tesla is to transition the world to sustainable energy/transport. Especially with so many OEMS pulling back on EVs lately, that isn’t going to happen on its own. Tesla will make every car they can.

All of the above assumes autonomy doesn’t happen and that’s worth way more than $40/share.

 

[jerry33]

To me it seems Mexico is still an untapped market. What lacks in Mexico is the tesla supercharger network as an extension of the rest of the North American network. Populating key corridors in Mexico that interconnect to US corridors would possibly drive some sales in Mexico.

Jmho.

Mexican Superchargers don't seem to be much worse distance apart than the Supercharger Desert in the U.S. (From looking at the map, no first hand experience).