Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[nativewolf]

Say you have a two hour round trip to the office each day, with FSD you can be working while it drives you there and back. Say you are paid $50 per hour that $100 a day or $1000-2000 a month depending on how often you are in the office, and that's just for your commute. Why wouldn't you pay $99 heck even $499 a month. I know this is a simplistic example but for a lot of people time is money and time spent driving when they could be more productive is valuable.

Well I am not sure about the number but I think people would definitely buy FSD for a chauffeur experience.

 

[jerry33]

My wife and I were just discussing this. You are correct. To take it a step further, RoboTaxi really just opens the door to RoboCar => RoboVehicle => RoboTransport. At the "car" level, anything using a car to transport people or goods could then be a candidate for RoboCar consideration. My wife just said "I have these returns to make today...A RoboCar could take them for me or come get them from the store if the store had a way to deal with them once they got there". That's just at the consumer level...then you have local van delivery, semi, etc - basically, logistics a-go-go. Obviously, ALL of this relies on FSD being "solved" well enough.

On another note, I have often thought the biggest threat to EVs or Robotaxis was that people simply stop going anywhere. Look at what happened with COVID. Telecommuting took off and even though there has been some return to work, it is definitely not at the same level. Beyond that, "going out" for fun or to eat has also declined as folks order out, watch more Netflix than ever, etc. In short, the TAM for "driving" simply reduces...however, now all those people need deliveries (or do more than they used to) so we are back to needing cars/driver or just cars w/no drivers. Our dystopian future is well underway!

Going out to a decent restaurant or movie for two people gets close to $100, and $50 for a not so great restaurant. Not going out makes a big difference to the monthly budget. Especially if you went out a couple of times a week. That's around $400-$800 a month.

 

[Zero CO2]

www.SupportTeslaValue.com

this link was in the SEC filing ... from today ..

 

[Krugerrand]

Rivian cuts 1% of workforce in second round of layoffs this year

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) -Electric vehicle maker Rivian said on Wednesday it cut about 1% of its workforce - the second round of job cuts this year - as it reduces cost amid a broader slowdown in EV demand. "This was a difficult decision, but a necessary one to support our goal to be gross...

finance.yahoo.com

Amateurs

 

[jerry33]

I get so much benefit from FSD already, I am completely confused at how people don't derive $100/month value from it. Just today FSD drove my MX 20 min through two temporary construction areas (one with a stop sign, one with a light) and multiple interesctions (both stop lights and signs) while I texted and caught up on email so I could be totally present for my son who I was picking up early from daycare - to the average parent I think this would be worth a couple bucks Then I said "take us to..." the playground he loves 25 min from his daycare and reengaged FSD again, it drove us back through some construction and then a roundabout and 4 intersections while I fed him healthy food and worked through some educational games with him - again worth a couple bucks. We arrived and he was fed and smarter before he plays, and because I took care of all the communicating texts and emails, I could devote my undivided attention to him. All the while FSD was ensuring our safety and reducing the amount of thinking i had to do so I could commit my attention to other things. So let's say all of the above was worth $5 (times 30 days is $150/month), is that fair? For those of us with children, the added safety and time to engage with children is incredible. With BOTH kids, it's invaluable.

I'm not trying to talk down on anyone, just thinking aloud, trying to understand where the percieved value is so different for some: perhaps those who don't value FSD don't have enough responsibility (or children) to understand what time is really worth.

Also, I am seriously lowballing the amount to be relateable to anyone, as my time is worth many hundreds of dollars an hour as a function of my career, these numbers are certainly several times more valuable to me. Just my 2 cents and an example from today.

There are many confusing freeway intersections where I live. FSD handles these better than I could. It has always taken the correct route on these--I haven't

 

[AndrewZ]

$40/share with the current count would make Tesla’s car and energy businesses worth more than Ford, General Motors, Rivian, and Lucid combined while still leaving enough to buy 574 Fiskers after today’s 40% decline

 

[Todd Burch]

Amateurs

Yeah I was thinking if anyone needs to cut way MORE than 10% of their workforce, it would be Rivian and Lucid.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

That works for level 4 or 5, and for many $99 per month would be a steal, but not level 2 which is what FSD is now.

I personally think it's worth $99 per month now, but there's obviously a lot of dissent there.

12.3.3 was. 12.3.4…not so much. I still think it would be nice if the user could “back up” one version.

Jmho.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Mexican Superchargers don't seem to be much worse distance apart than the Supercharger Desert in the U.S. (From looking at the map, no first hand experience).

Maybe. But lots of uncovered corridors there. The Baja will be last but that’s another one that will someday need coverage.

 

[Todd Burch]

Just want to point out that Ashok and Elon have seen and are probably driving 12.4 if not something beyond that. (James Douma thinks so too).

So Elon and Ashok have witnessed firsthand the rate of change from 12.3 to their current internal build.

I don’t think the big focus on autonomy is a coincidence. And it's not because of the initial internal build of v12 which Tesla was running on last year.

It’s because they’ve seen the rate of improvement from internal v12 to internal v12.4 and possibly beyond.

Again, these NN will not improve linearly. Almost everyone thinks linearly. We’re used to the slow pace of heuristic v11 code changes. This will vastly outpace the rate of change of v11.

Nobody thought AI could beat Lee Sedol at Go.

Then it beat him.

Then it clobbered him.

Then it made moves that were so good even he could not understand them.

 

[sunwarriors]

Say you have a two hour round trip to the office each day, with FSD you can be working while it drives you there and back. Say you are paid $50 per hour that $100 a day or $1000-2000 a month depending on how often you are in the office, and that's just for your commute. Why wouldn't you pay $99 heck even $499 a month. I know this is a simplistic example but for a lot of people time is money and time spent driving when they could be more productive is valuable.

Do people here really think this is coming so soon? You only have 1 chance at this and once an accident happens where someone is hurt (unless you believe FSD will NEVER make a mistake, ever), FSD will be paused/shut down pretty quickly (think Cruise/San Francisco where a person is dragged 6 ft after hitting them).

No one debates the value of sleeping in the back seat on long trips, but do folks here think cities will greenlight this anytime soon (within a year/2 years?).

That said, I still wouldn't pay $12k for this since I simply don't drive enough for if to be worth my while.

 

[unk45]

OK, since nobody bit, here's what Chat said below. Sales strategy is in play, no demand worries folks, lots of levers.

Revenue Recognition: The sale of a vehicle is recognized at the point of sale, and the total revenue generally includes the price at which the car is sold, regardless of the financing terms. Therefore, whether the car is purchased with cash, a standard finance rate, or a promotional 0% interest rate, the revenue recognized from the sale remains unchanged.

Cost of Financing: Tesla has to bear the cost of capital for offering 0% financing. This cost can be significant but is considered a part of financial operations separate from the direct cost of vehicle production and sale.

Chat might not understand auto finance accounting rules. The subvention (I.e. interest rate subsidy) generally is debited to cost of sale.For clarity warranty reserve in included. Every cost related directly to making a sale is so charged.

Chat needs to learn sales accounting rules.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Chat might not understand auto finance accounting rules. The subvention (I.e. interest rate subsidy) generally is debited to cost of sale.For clarity warranty reserve in included. Every cost related directly to making a sale is so charged.

Chat needs to learn sales accounting rules.

Well, thanks for the correction.

I'm getting pretty sick of ChatGPT4, it was believable. There was even more listed to explain it all. Garbage in, Garbage out.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Going out to a decent restaurant or movie for two people gets close to $100, and $50 for a not so great restaurant. Not going out makes a big difference to the monthly budget. Especially if you went out a couple of times a week. That's around $400-$800 a month.

Triple or Quadruple that amount if you have kids and live in California.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Garbage in, Garbage out.

But who's feeding it?

 

[Musskiah]

Just want to point out that Ashok and Elon have seen and are probably driving 12.4 if not something beyond that. (James Douma thinks so too).

March 16 Elon Tweeted...

"V12.4 is another big jump in capabilities. Our constraint in training compute is much improved."

He and likely many others internally had already driven it for weeks before making this statement. It is possible Elon had alpha tested V12.5 before going balls to the wall on RT.

 

[Mengy]

I hope Elon´s affirmative reply also refers to the "Tesla can keep making personal cars.."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780694674300141678

Sure, but FSD needs to be solved yet and it has not been solved yet. Going all in on RT production before FSD is ready seems premature to me, especially when a consumer $25K car would sell on day one out of the factory.

The future release of FSD v12.4 will be very telling. If the pace of improvements has vastly accelerated then maybe this is where all the new confidence in RT's is coming from?

 

[unk45]

Well, thanks for the correction.

I'm getting pretty sick of ChatGPT4, it was believable. There was even more listed to explain it all. Garbage in, Garbage out.

I find these realities very irritating too. By v4 they should have had better training and inferences. Personally I have given up for now, except for some highly technical unambiguous things, most are essentially complex searches, but unambiguous.

 

[Zero CO2]

Sure, but FSD needs to be solved yet and it has not been solved yet. Going all in on RT production before FSD is ready seems premature to me, especially when a consumer $25K car would sell on day one out of the factory.

The future release of FSD v12.4 will be very telling. If the pace of improvements has vastly accelerated then maybe this is where all the new confidence in RT's is coming from?

why dont folks on this thread realize the RT and Model 2 are not mutually exclusive , they will do both

get RT line running , then announce similar to Model Y with little fanfare the Model 2 .... eliminate Osbourne effect

what am i missing ???

 

[jerry33]

Do people here really think this is coming so soon? You only have 1 chance at this and once an accident happens where someone is hurt (unless you believe FSD will NEVER make a mistake, ever), FSD will be paused/shut down pretty quickly (think Cruise/San Francisco where a person is dragged 6 ft after hitting them).

No one debates the value of sleeping in the back seat on long trips, but do folks here think cities will greenlight this anytime soon (within a year/2 years?).

That said, I still wouldn't pay $12k for this since I simply don't drive enough for if to be worth my while.

That's your take, and that's fine. Mine is that $12k for FSD pays for itself if it saves you from even one distracted crash at 70+ mph. (These days most of my miles are road trip miles) It has saved me from two accidents in town so far. While I purchased it four years ago, so it wasn't $12K--I forget what is was back then--I won't purchase a vehicle without it anymore.