Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780671555082592482

(Edit: doesn't)
How does this (0% loans) affect vehicle margins, or does it?

 

[Thekiwi]

I disagree with you that going all in on autonomy is a risk free strategy, as FSD is not solved yet.

IMHO, the better strategy would be to produce the consumer variant of the Gen3 car FIRST with manual controls (for which the potential market is HUGE) while FSD is being solved over time, and THEN begin making the RT on the same lines as the Gen3 once FSD is ready. I agree with Franz and Lars on this one.

If these rumors are correct then Elon is doing this backwards, in an extremely risky decision, because if the manufacturing lines get ready to produce the RT and FSD is still not solved, well what then? Time to retool to make the Gen3 for consumers, which could have easily been done in the first place.

My copium at the moment is that this is all a massive ruse to prevent osbouring. Elon shows off the wonderfully efficient nearly complete prototype unboxed line on 8/8 that is “exclusively for building Robotaxis” - and then at some point in 2025 it will be: “Actually we are also building the next gen small car on this line as well - here it is - starts deliveries next week”.

 

[Linkmeup]

This sounds like a good strategy.

India is positioned well as an export hub than would be Mexico. India could serve the Americas well, particularly Central and South America. Africa and the Mid-East are close, and Europe is closer than it is to China.

I think that Mexico has been delayed for several valid reasons. One of which is that an RT/Gen3 will be best deployed in the US first, as this is where most of the training data has come from. Tesla needs to finalize the product in Texas before they can start building in Mexico. There are many, many examples of Tesla having to rebuild parts of a factory shortly after construction, so, pausing on Mexico until the line has been finalized helps avoid some of that.

India is very "renewable" friendly. They are in the top five of solar power generation nations. They also have a lot of tech-savvy people and rank between China and Brazil for number of STEM engineering graduates. Mexico is ranked further down the list, between Ukraine and France.

India has a strong automotive manufacturing base which is pivoting into the EV sector, so more OEMs who might benefit from the "Tesla Inside" aspect of robotaxi production built with Tesla autonomy components. TATA Electronics are already making noises about chip production and their automotive side might make a good match for partnering with Tesla on two fronts.

Mexico still has advantages with economic ties to both Latin America and their proximity/economic/auto production ties to the US.

Things are looking good for Tesla's expansion into more of the world's markets, as well as for autonomy coming to fruition eventually and being deployed worldwide over the long term. 20M cars by 2030 has always been a good target to aim for.

Anyone want to take a step back and realize that it's kinda nuts that one CEO has gotten the keys to the country for 3 out of the top 5 nation economies in the world to take himself to Mars?

Edit: Added for effect

 

[Thekiwi]

$4000 isn't a real number based on analysis. Neither is $40. I was just throwing out a contrast there to make a point.

I do think Tesla is easily 100x more valuable if robotaxi plays out the way Elon intends. It's a transformative technology that others are unlikely to match.

I think most of us have seen others' analysis of Tesla's possible robotaxi profits. Even the conservative estimates are crazy high.

Not all. Pierre Ferragu, one of the more bullish and long time Tesla Analysts, thinks robotaxi is a relatively minor impact to Tesla. Not saying he is right, but just pointing out that even for some of the better analysts, the conservative estimates are not “crazy high”

 

[Krugerrand]

Agreed that how it was communicated to employees was very poor.

I don’t disagree with this sentiment from an employee/human being losing their job POV. From a company standpoint, I get it in spades.

This is the way Tesla does it. Future applicants and current employees - fair warning.

Disagree about losing the best people. If upper management tells department leaders that the company is laying off 10% and they need to submit names, those department leaders are going to name their worst employees. It's relative, so they may not be bad employees, but they are the worst on the team for some reasons.

Absolutely, the odd good employee will be unfortunately lost and the odd bad employee will be missed and still have a job. Mostly, Tesla will have gotten it right. Again, they’ve done it like this in the past. They have proven results they’re happy with or they’d choose a different way.

 

[scaesare]

I was merely pointing out this did not seem like the run of the mill, near-annual trimming of redundant positions that has happened before.

You (and others) chose to run with "omg D&S is saying Tesla is in dire straits, what a moron, let's down vote him to oblivion." It's not my problem if you choose to assign intent to posts by inventing a narrative I never stated.

But you didn't (as @Krugerrand mentioned earlier):

When you combine this with the recent job cuts....something smells a bit fishy. Almost like they got a look at the preliminary Q1 results and it's not good.

Raising prices = decreasing demand. It would appear, for the time being, they are going to try to increase margins. That's likely to come at the expense of growing volumes.

You said it "smells fishy", suggested Q1 wasn't good, and that they increased volume growth was likely to suffer. 3 negative implications in one post.

Not just merely pointing out it wasn't fat trimming, but rather addressed with a negative take. No need to assign intent, it was evident.

 

[cusetownusa]

Right, but it's worth something, and that's the point. All these small advantages add up.

I agree...for example, I would pay just for ALC for road tripping. Not $100 per month but something. Or if I had a couple long roadtrips in a month then I would. Although, seems like this feature is being provided by some competitors (i think) so maybe it becomes standard with AP?

 

[Zero CO2]

One side of me says that Tesla knows for a fact that FSD is going to be solved soon, and shareholders should not worry. The other side says that Tesla is the most incompetent company on earth. Here is some proof. Zero followup about the Long Term Shareholder program for Early CT delivery. They’ve got some of the most loyal shareholders hyped up for nothing. Shame on Tesla.

And this whole delivery halt fiasco. No one knows the exact nature of it, not even employees. Keeping it a secret is only creating FUD and other conspiracies, and gives customers a bad taste in their mouth. Do we really need NHTSA to be the ones telling us the truth?

And one more. They are doing NOTHING to stop people from reselling their Cybertrucks. There are hundreds on the market! Tesla needs to improve the customer experience, and stop treating people like a nuisance. Some parts of the experience are really good, and some are terrible.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780146212877791516

which one is yours ? mine is first row 4th position with open tonneau cover

 

[MD70]

My copium at the moment is that this is all a massive ruse to prevent osbouring. Elon shows off the wonderfully efficient nearly complete prototype unboxed line on 8/8 that is “exclusively for building Robotaxis” - and then at some point in 2025 it will be: “Actually we are also building the next gen small car on this line as well - here it is - starts deliveries next week”.

The problem with this theory is where are the battery’s going to come from?
The same applies to the RT as well.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780146212877791516

which one is yours ? mine is first row 4th position with open tonneau cover

OR..
stacking up at factory at prior rate until the pedal issue is fixed ..

Elons said "balls to the wall" - because he must have detested saying "pedal to the metal"

 

[Krugerrand]

FWIW this varies by manager. I've worked for a fair # of very big tech companies and see managers who handle this as you suggest.

I've also seen managers who pick the names of the employees most a threat to their own jobs in ways outside of them being bad employees (often the opposite)

I've also seen managers who do it straight seniority- last hired first fired.


Meritocracy is an ideal but as any org gets large it's rarely a reality.

Valid. But this is why we have Elon making department heads and managers and the like responsible for their projects and timelines. Whether forced retirement or other. See. Taken in your context here; likely good riddance to the titled amongst the layoffs.

 

[Musskiah]

I agree...for example, I would pay just for ALC for road tripping. Not $100 per month but something. Or if I had a couple long roadtrips in a month then I would. Although, seems like this feature is being provided by some competitors (i think) so maybe it becomes standard with AP?

I think that would be a good solution to add ALC to AP now that "feature complete" is almost in the bag. Before ALC was a strong differentiator between AP and FSD, but now there are more benefits that actually work (almost perfectly, most of the time).

 

[Tony73]

Agreed that how it was communicated to employees was very poor.

Disagree about losing the best people. If upper management tells department leaders that the company is laying off 10% and they need to submit names, those department leaders are going to name their worst employees. It's relative, so they may not be bad employees, but they are the worst on the team for some reasons.

Agreed that how it was communicated to employees was very poor.

Disagree about losing the best people. If upper management tells department leaders that the company is laying off 10% and they need to submit names, those department leaders are going to name their worst employees. It's relative, so they may not be bad employees, but they are the worst on the team for some reasons.

It’s rarely that simple. Many times the person making the decisions does not know the employees very well. Often times, the older and more expensive employees get the shaft. You can be a stellar performer but be deemed not as critical as someone who is not as high performing.

 

[Zero CO2]

It's a cool feature but I can't imagine there are many people that would pay $100 just for their car to park for them. I have tried the auto park feature and I find it easier just to park myself as it goes slow. Even if it could park as quickly and as well as me, no way I would pay $100 per month for it. But it is cool and hopefully keeps improving.

any Investor with significant shares of TSLA and a Tesla should have FSD to monitor their investment thesis ... this way you have first hand facts on the progress... i understand if you are not an investor ... but if you are... a serious investor (since you are on this thread) SW is the difference between a car company and a tech company and one of the only accurate ways to measure the progress of FSD ... i like driving but i bought FSD for this express purpose ... cant rely on you tubers fighting for click's

one other thought ... after writing this not specifically for @cusetownusa ... this seems to be at the heart of the bull/bear theme occurring on this thread as of late ...

my guess would be the bears do not have a Tesla or FSD , or have not given FSD a chance ...

the bull have FSD or have the vision and can see a clear path to autonomy...

you make $ by seeing the future with incomplete information ... as an investor it is your duty to fill in the blanks... don't be like Wall St. cry babies wanting to spoon fed

 

[hobbes]

Btw, with this recent run down in TSLA...any chance it becomes a benefit to hiring new employees for the next run-up?

Or helps Elon in acquiring 25% of Tesla (the amount he wants to be comfortable with serious AI there)?

 

[Krugerrand]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780146212877791516

which one is yours ? mine is first row 4th position with open tonneau cover

I don’t see my name on any!

 

[Thekiwi]

These two are not necessarily mutually exclusive.

Elon often stresses that Tesla is like a whole bunch of startups.

Reality is that many startups fail, for various reasons (tech doesn’t work, product market fit, change in market dynamics, etc) - but thats natural part of risk taking and the risk of getting big rewards for startups that do succeed.

However that means we really should expect some of Tesla’s startups to fail, and perhaps we have already seen that, but managment doesn’t really like to publicize when it happens.

Solar Roof: Pretty much a failed startup. Was supposed to be doing 1,000 installs a week many years ago. Has not happened. Product market fit isnt there.

Dojo: Elon just last week was saying that Tesla is one of the top 3 in Nvidia H100 composure installation. I think it’s fair to say Dojo has not played out as expected, and that isnt a giant surprise given the massive R&D budget and experience Nvidia has. Dojo may be up and running, but competitors have left it in the dust.

4680: May be playing out similar to dojo: it was a noble goal, but the massive Chinese & Korean companies specializing in batteries have ruthlessly lowered costs to the point that the proposed savings from battery day (which haven't been achieved yet) have already been surpassed by competitors.

It wasn't necessary a mistake for Tesla to attempt any of the above, but at a certain point management realizes the better option is to just embrace reality and take advantage of what your suppliers have managed to do better than you can. Tesla should buy from people who do those things best, while re-focusing on what it does best (build great cars, charging networks, and presumably FSD). For instance when it decided Gigapresses were the best solution for finding efficiencies in building car bodies, it didn’t attempt to build them itself, instead it went with the world’s best company for that (IDRA).

The other current startups in areas where there are no current leaders still make obvious sense for Tesla to attempt (Optimus in particular).

 

[Linkmeup]

Valid. But this is why we have Elon making department heads and managers and the like responsible for their projects and timelines. Whether forced retirement or other. See. Taken in your context here; likely good riddance to the titled amongst the layoffs.

I was watching the Warriors get trounced by the Kings last night in the NBA's play-in tournament. The main analysts on TNT called the core 3 (hall of famers: Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green) as "cooked" at the beginning of the season. It made me think and create an analogy back to other industries like what's going on with the layoffs at Tesla. Namely, Tesla has been around for ~20 years and some companies have been around for centuries. These vehicles of providing products/services, if done right, last longer than human lifespans. Some employees to the mission, including Elon, are there for the entirety of that mission. Some aren't.

Elon is not going to be the leader of all of his companies forever. We all have the marks we want to make on the world and are "cooking in the oven" for how much we want to contribute and can contribute to the world as a form of our legacies (cancelled or active). The same core 3 hall of famers that donned 4 championships are now barely able to keep up in terms of focus and athleticism to people a decade younger. They're basically realizing they're in forced retirement too.

There's more to say here, but in short - when someone stops, its really hard to get back to sprinting again. One should never stop until they're satisifed/done with their passions. Elon wants to go to Mars and he's the turkey in that oven that, hopefully, hasn't completed yet (and won't until he's on Mars). Some others along that journey like the Baglino's and Patel's are their own turkeys with a certain amount of being "cooked" too. They've won championships at Tesla. Though, other championships for their own "turkey" in their own "oven" could include their children / families as part of their life's passions/missions.

Forced retirement might not be the right word because it sounds jaded. I think it's important to call out what they've accomplished. They have a pulse. It's just a job. Their passions and missions next will inspire what they do next.

 

[Krugerrand]

It’s rarely that simple. Many times the person making the decisions does not know the employees very well. Often times, the older and more expensive employees get the shaft. You can be a stellar performer but be deemed not as critical as someone who is not as high performing.

Not at Tesla. Performance and results are rewarded there with bonuses, promotions and the like.

Elon just tweeted how key employees were being additionally incentivized to stay at Tesla so there was a less likely chance they’d be poached.

 

[cusetownusa]

any Investor with significant shares of TSLA and a Tesla should have FSD to monitor their investment thesis ... this way you have first hand facts on the progress... i understand if you are not an investor ... but if you are... a serious investor (since you are on this thread) SW is the difference between a car company and a tech company and one of the only accurate ways to measure the progress of FSD ... i like driving but i bought FSD for this express purpose ... cant rely on you tubers fighting for click's

I agree. I had FSD last summer (paid for a couple of months) and I liked the ALC feature for road tripping. Otherwise, wasn't worth it for me to keep spending $200 per month on it. I currently have the free trial so I can see the progress from last year. I have help sell at least 3 teslas so I will use my referral credits to continue FSD through the summer months to hopefully see continued improvements. The new V12 gives me hope but I want to see improvements before I start believing true FSD is here anytime soon.