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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Wot, 4/20? That was a meme made up by somebody on social media for Lol's. Plenty of folks willing to push unverified dates online however especially TSLAQ. Any fail's a win, amirite? 😄

Instead, remind yourself when we saw that large Model 3 Highland batch lined up on the dock in Shanghai, ready to be shipped to Europe. Then, ask yourself how long it takes for car carrier ship to arrive in Zeebrugge. Do the date math, and you'll arrive at a reasonable 'not-earlier-than' date estimate for 1st deliveries.

Let us know what you get.

The trolls are out in force, you can tell them as their arguments hold as well as a house made from tissue in a hurricane
 
That would be stupid as owning a stock of a company I have little confidence in executing.

I expect you know how leverage works, and the fact I need a place to live etc, but it's not a good idea to be leveraged in a stock like Tesla for obvious reasons. I am happy people are selling that's why I said I would buy his shares and yours if your confidence is shaky.
You also wrote he should "step away from the forum" which is what I reacted against.
 
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Looks like TSLA is going to get more of a kicking today. Only pre market but 130s look on for today and that’s with futures green. If they turn red…..
Sentiment really seems pitch black now. Everybody - even bulls - seem to expect Musk and company to make things worse on the earnings call. Which actually makes me think it may be time to reverse the short trade I made and buy back stock. I think there could be a relief if not all bad news are affirmed and some good news are presented. But of course, this is pure speculation and betting.
 
Not surprising to read this from someone who just joined the forum 3 days ago, but lets just say you should do some research. The idea that 'legacy auto could make a profit on EVs if they felt like it' is just horrendously badly informed. They have a unionized workforce who despise EVs, they have a legacy dealership network that despise EVs, they have no experience of battery manufacturing, they have no experience with software or over-the-air updates or gigacasting or running a charging network, they have legacy factories designed around ICE cars, they have no vertical integration, and their brands are associated with petrol and diesel and emissions cheating scandals.
spoiler: No, they are nowhere close to being competition to Tesla. And the gap is widening rapidly due to progress with FSD, steer by wire, 48v, gigacasting etc.

When GM release a BEV that is cost and performance competitive with Tesla, has FSD12-equivalent capabilities, excellent software, a 5 star safety rating, and can be sold at the same profit margin as Tesla, then I'll care. Until then, they are just an embarrassment.

But the European manufacturers are building EVs today. So even with the so-called hate from their workforce and dealers, they are still doing it. And they are making the batteries that you're so confidently saying they have no experience manufacturing. Software over the air updates? My 2023 5-series updated itself just a month ago. So you've missed all these items. But what you're actually missing is that there's no hurry for them to transition over a short period of time. Their sales are increasing, while Tesla's are decreasing. If anything, it shows that what they're doing, still works. What's the hurry? 48V is not the game changer that Tesla presents it to be.
 
Sentiment really seems pitch black now. Everybody - even bulls - seem to expect Musk and company to make things worse on the earnings call. Which actually makes me think it may be time to reverse the short trade I made and buy back stock. I think there could be a relief if not all bad news are affirmed and some good news are presented. But of course, this is pure speculation and betting.
The bad news might be more than baked in. The bakers have closed early due to selling out.
 
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Does the average person spend 140 mins commuting each day?

If they were not driving in mind numbingly boring traffic, they might be able to do something useful, like read a book, play a game, or answer emails.

It is likely in a city there there is a mixture of trips at different times for different durations.

Most airports in large cities have flights which leave at all hours of the day.

Many students attend university at odd hours, including night lectures, people work night shifts

The capital cost of the Robotaxi is probably around $25,000 and it should be able to do 1 million miles.

So the capital cost of the Robotaxi is $2.5 cents per mile. Electricity is probably around 8-10 cents per mile. Need to add in cost for tires and cleaning
But a cost basis of 30 cents per mile might be close to the mark,. So if they charge 50 cents per mile. That 24 mile trip costs $12 and the profit is $4.80.

Even if we assume each Robotaxi only makes $10 profit per day, a fleet of 5,000 makes, $50,000 profit per day, or 18 million profit per year from one city.

Yes fleet utilisation probably determines the ROI. Mapping fleet utilisation for a city is a complex task,, it is a mixture of customers moving from public transport, Taxi, Uber, private driving.

But it is more likely that each Robotaxi makes around $30 profit per day... Tesla will eventually have a fleet of at least 1 million Robotaxis, probably more like 20-40 million.

A large fleet size is the best way to recoup the FSD R&D costs.
No idea about the average, but I commuted around an hour each way, unless I got called back in during the middle of the night. So normal was 120 min / day.
 
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Yawn World premiere at CES: Volkswagen integrates ChatGPT into its vehicles.

I just don't see how Grok can get much better/cheaper than other LLMs chabots.

OpenAI can easily undercut Grok on price, as they can have many more customers, in auto but all other industries (so more data, and more revenues, so can get much cheaper).

Sure, Tesla would better integrate AI outputs thanks to FSD and better vertical integrations (although Grok won't be part of Tesla so Musk is kinda horizontalizing, these days). But in the end, if chat bots prove to be useful in cars, then there will be little differencitation between OEMs as LLMs are fast being commoditized.
 
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Ok and Tesla is not hemorrhaging monies on FSD? Waymo is not even trying to make money yet, when they put the 50k RTs on the road then they will be trying to make money. Waymo is clearly setting out to solve driving in the major Uber profit centers in the USA, even a nimnut can see this. They are solving specific issues, they are mapping everything. You keep making a blanket statement that Waymo has yet to figure out how to operate at a profit, so I would point you to this very basic super clear plan. They will roll out services in the exact same spaces as Uber once they receive their 50k vehicles. Because...drum roll. 50k vehicles will suck nearly all the profit out of TaaS in the USA. That's it. That is the profit. From there they can expand but they'll be able to do this before Tesla. 50k cars doing 50 rides a day in dense urban areas. 2,500,000 rides a day is the profit in Uber.

Re Uber and TaaS..I've studied it. I may not be correct in all aspects but I'd want an Uber executive to dispute my analysis. I know a few specific cities such as san fran having on average 6000 cars a day. I have no idea where pricing will go but it would not surprise me to see it be free for the first 100 rides/passenger just to kill Uber in a given geography. So it is not an product/services dumping issue. The standard rate will be low, low enough to keep the Uber drivers from coming back to work.
More cars on the road just means more humans in the background monitoring each ride and coming to the rescue of stuck vehicles.

The bigger the fleet, the more money Waymo loses. If that was not the case then Waymo would already be massively growing their fleet.

The only way Waymo can win is if Waymo figures out how to make a profit and Tesla does not. Tesla's solution is far cheaper so if both can manage an operating profit then Tesla will be able to win on price.
 
But the European manufacturers are building EVs today. So even with the so-called hate from their workforce and dealers, they are still doing it. And they are making the batteries that you're so confidently saying they have no experience manufacturing. Software over the air updates? My 2023 5-series updated itself just a month ago. So you've missed all these items. But what you're actually missing is that there's no hurry for them to transition over a short period of time. Their sales are increasing, while Tesla's are decreasing. If anything, it shows that what they're doing, still works. What's the hurry? 48V is not the game changer that Tesla presents it to be.
They are building unprofitable EVs that will be paperweights once FSD comes to europe. Oh and where is their supercharger network? Thats right, they dont have one. Maybe if they actually stopped spending all their software time on STILL working out how to cheat emissions tests, they might actually have a snowballs chance in a supernova of getting some decent autonomous software.
You say there is no hurry? Are you serious? You do know that Europe is setting dates to absolutely BAN making new ICE vehicles right? The legacy European auto companies are driving head first into a ditch, all while people like yourself say 'very sensible...no hurry'.
This is comical.
 
I really really hope they are not thinking to release it around the time ER comes out to distract ... that would just confirm they have nothing else to show investors about the new company direction other than "trust us, we'll be the biggest company in the world". I know that will be the last straw for me personally.
AFAIK Tesla have never arranged for a product release to be tied to an earnings call. Performance 3 will happen when its ready.
 



So overall it's quite bullish, yet since Dana Hull is the co-author, they had to write it as a hit-piece.
So I think this is the first we have heard about robotaxi-specific neural nets? The system needs to learn how to pick up and drop off passengers. It could learn this from the many Uber and Lyft drivers using Teslas.

I have assumed that Tesla was working on some robotaxi-specific nets, but this is the first (albeit, rumor-based) confirmation. We might see this neural net in action on 8/8.
 
Article from February but interesting chart.

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According to this, Tesla is already stockpiling cells from LG. I think they are 2170s?

I think there might be two reasons for the delays in building out the Semi factory:
1. Elon is trying to save cash in the short term.
2. Tesla doesn't yet have enough cells to keep the Semi factory from becoming a cash furnace. But that problem will be solved soon.
 
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They are building unprofitable EVs that will be paperweights once FSD comes to europe. Oh and where is their supercharger network? Thats right, they dont have one. Maybe if they actually stopped spending all their software time on STILL working out how to cheat emissions tests, they might actually have a snowballs chance in a supernova of getting some decent autonomous software.
You say there is no hurry? Are you serious? You do know that Europe is setting dates to absolutely BAN making new ICE vehicles right? The legacy European auto companies are driving head first into a ditch, all while people like yourself say 'very sensible...no hurry'.
This is comical.

I live in Europe. I think your consideration of how fast EU wants to move on banning is a bit naive, considering the power that German auto manufacturers have in Germany and by extension, EU regulations. What supercharger network? The one that anyone can use? While most customers charge at home the majority of time?

"once FSD comes to Europe" - let's see it coming in its unsupervised form at least to a neighborhood of Los Angeles or San Francisco. Before making plans to take over the world :) Bear in mind, even with this year's significant stock drop, the FWD PE of Tesla is that of a growth company in its early stages, so on the off-chance that they can make unsupervised FSD in the next 5-10 years, it's still a question of how much of that is baked into the stock price.

Let's agree to disagree.
 
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