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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I am surprised to hear this from a long-term Tesla supporter.

FSD is a high priority because each EV with FSD would be capable of replacing 10 gasoline vehicles.
FSD can help increase demand for EVs.
Optimus is a high priority because it could reduce manufacturing costs and help scale car production down the road.
Every project's delay had valid reasons behind it.

Tesla said they will not stop until every gasoline car on the street is gone. I trust them.

Edit:
I will add my two cents to address your other points:

"The Semi being very SLOWLY introduced, a good 3 years late."

  • If Tesla engineers have been sitting around doing nothing, then you have a valid point. You should know how hard Tesla engineers pushed themselves on all these projects. The Semi is a product that requires extreme reliability. They produced some, tested them in the real world, and are now redesigning some parts, including changing from a 2-axle drive to a 3-axle drive. If you think it took too long, try working on these projects and see how easy it is.
  • Meanwhile, Tesla put in a crazy amount of effort to get the Cybertruck out. This will be a high-impact product.
"The Tesla Roadster 2 being some 4 years late (likely a good halo car)."

  • This is a low-impact project but can take a lot of resources to make it perfect.
"The SuperCharger team being sacked with no explanation given. Especially after NACS became the standard, and has been Tesla’s crown jewel. But focus is gone before other manufacturers have modified their cars to use it."

  • We don't know what Elon is planning. He did say they will continue to grow the Supercharger network and focus on 100% availability. Have Superchargers been a bottleneck? Someone who traveled 100k miles using Superchargers said he had never waited at a station. I never had to wait in line either.
"EV growth being walked back, significantly, way back."

  • No, Elon said we are between two major growth waves. They are preparing for the next big wave.
"Model 3 losing the tax credit, resulting in a 20% price increase and likely a good part of the sales drop."

  • Supply chains take a long time to plan. You should blame the government, not Tesla, for this.
"Dropped plans for a smaller value model."

  • A cheaper model is coming earlier than planned.
  • The Robotaxi could still be two models, one being a cheaper model.
"Strong walk-back on Tesla Solar."

  • Running a business is like fighting a war; you have to deal with everything with limited resources. Solar industry itself is progressing well, even if Tesla completely pulled out of it, solar industry would continue to grow. On the other hand, Tesla put in a lot of effort to grow energy storage business.
"Mexico being slow-walked."

  • At the moment, even the current lines are not fully utilized. Do you want them to add more production capacity right away?
"Twitter diversion, at a minimum a loss of focus."

  • Elon said if we lose to the woke mind virus, we would lose everything—the Tesla mission, the SpaceX mission, the business, shareholder value—everything would be gone. I agree with him on this view. We are still not out of the woods yet.

For those of us who, like @dhrivnak , have been active since near the beginning or even before with Zip2 or other early Musk-led businesses, it is a bit disingenuous to dismiss legitimate concerns with formulaic acidulous misunderstanding. It is difficult enough for those of us who invested very early to face directly the reality that present Tesla trajectory is no longer compatible with the TSLA we bought. To be factual, for all of us the capital gains are handsome anyway.

We signed up to help accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy. The present course is pursuing other objectives, perhaps laudable, perhaps profitable. The present course is seemingly systematic in destruction of TSLA financial prudence.

This Investor’s forum should be devoted to assessing those issues, And counter-issues with logic, evidence and analysis. Were that to have been the focus we would have far fewer bot issues, virtually no “I’m too lazy to look it up, but here is my ‘opinion’” entries.

Since there is active debate about our future as a useful source of insight I dare to express my views;
We have had, and lost, numerous people who actually knew the subjects about which they spoke;
1. We had several people who knew Elon Musk and knew his character, not from reading or skimming some biography;
2. We had people who actually participated directly in building solar systems, BEV’s, electrical infrastructure and more;
3. We had people who actually had done business in nearly every arena in which Tesla operates;
4. We had numerous people who had built companies from concept to maturity.

And many more.
What happened?
In the beginning one had to have unusual characteristics to buy a Tesla or TSLA. In the early days of Model S everyone who bought one was a distinct character. Many had never before bought a new car. Many had a sequence of supercars. Most had advanced educational and professional accomplishments.

That was then.

Now Model Y has been the best selling car in the world. The world has changed, and TMC has changed with it.

One thing we cannot and should not do is recreate the past. We now have a membership that reflects 2024, not 2014 and before.
People now blog and use visual media. Then people read and wrote. Some of us might not like the present world, but most NA TMC members today have never heard of Kate Turabian, although all the NA 2012 members probably still do remember her.

It tempting to try to recreate those early days when each of us had the ability to collaborate with knowledge other might not possess.
Now we have near-universal information access with excellent free translations. As recently as 2010 I had a staff of ~30 people doing research. Today I do the same work alone. The missing part, as you know, is editing!

Can we not devise a way to help transmit useful insight to the majority of TSLA investors today who have none of that background? Can we find ways to do that while eschewing obfuscation or condescension. Can we even understand that vocabulary lessons serve as entertainment and insight for linguistics aficionados but few others?

We need to find a way to be inclusive and helpful while fighting bots and avoiding the idle chitchat and irrelevancy that is rampant now.
While I have ideas, I am not one of our prime audience. We really need insight from the newer population of TSLA investors while avoiding descent more deeply to share speculation and market-making functions. We do have other excellent threads for those subjects including some very useful Technical Analysis threads, which do lack deep statistical rigor, but that is an entirely different subject.
Unbelievably eloquent. A post of extraordianry merit!
 
I think the US/India allowing ultra cheap new EVs ($10k) come into the US would address Climate Change far faster than a RT fleet. No one is going to use a RT for longer trips nor outside prime city/dense areas.

Even Tesla going balls to the wall with coming out with a uber cheap $15k or $20k EV would do more really. Whether that's good/profitable for the company or the US industrial work/environment is a totally different question (probably not good for either as we've seen with Covid and how dependent we are on China).

Please, go into detail how these vehicles will be manufactured and imported at those prices and meet the safety standards required to enter the US market?

About the only option available is to make a three-wheeled vehicle, sold in the motorcycle classification. Which still wouldn't meet that price target without sacrificing safety.

To build something like that with adequate safety features you will have an Aptera. Maybe, with significant improvements in economies of scale it could move toward that price point. Base price on their site for reservations is currently $33K (400 mi range), up to $48K (1000 mi range).

Arcimoto was another contender offering a very basic design without creature comforts, but they have gone out of business.

I think the last point is the most likely. Tesla could be the one to bring such a vehicle to the market, at a higher price point than $10K, but Robotaxi will be what gets the nod for serving that segment of transportation users with a more convenient TAAS model.

Those looking for "ultra cheap" will have a difficult time beating the cost of hiring a Robotaxi by choosing ownership of a low-priced vehicle and all the extra hassle that brings. (parking, charging, maintenance, cleaning, etc.)
 
Great post and great to hear. A lot of hand wringing could have been avoided if he had sent this last week.

Gitterdun Elon.
Would've happened anyway, over some other subject.
This place takes the cake for being a collection of long term holders micro managing expectations.
The nattering naybobs of negativism that persist here would be little more than a slight amusement in passing, were it not for the alarmist reactions of supposed long term investors.
I say pish on the denizens of despair!
 
Screenshot 2024-05-10 at 10.12.05.png
 
Actually, they do. I've talked to Uber drivers about this topic specifically. And even more will stop commuting with their own cars when robotaxis make it cheaper.
Yeap, and likely most of this is not even on Uber's income. Driver's regularly set up this up directly with passengers once they know them. I have even had them offer direct contact for the return trip from the airport. I am sure Uber discourages but there is not much they can realistically do with the drivers being "independent contractors". Robotaxi will not have this issue.
 
Yesterday reports came out about Trump asking Petroleum companies to give his campaign $1B. I exchange he will lift environmental regulations, try to kill EVs, etc. You think that those same Petroleum companies wouldnt get money to people that need cash to act like fools. The so called environmental groups in Germany going after Tesla I am certain sometime in the future some petroleum company leak will come out that they supported these groups in fight and they werent environmental at all. AKA the bad side of capitalism when capital is all that matters.
 
I wonder how he plans to do that though? Will he rebuild the teams he just let go, or begin a completely different strategy on how to build the SC network going forward? 🤔

If the core Engineers and factory is intact, he doesn't need to do anything, just ensure it runs more efficiently.
(what people keep overlooking is that China is also supposed to be making SuCs (or is in plans) )
cheers!!
 
Speaking of hitting birds. There is a common bird in Australia called a Galah, and during harvest season they gather on the edges of the road to eat bits of grain that have spilled off the top of wheat trucks, and eat so much they can't get off the ground. So the speed limit to not hit them is about 10kph to give them time to hop/roll to to edge of the road. Should also make a decent edge case for FSD to solve.
View attachment 1045921
there is a not uncommon bird in Sicily called a "Smokah". I was able to catch a shot of one on a trip there...

20151201_Sicily_0122_1024.500k.jpg
 
View attachment 1045944

Might as well catch a falling knife...

My weekly meetup with friends to solve world problems took an interesting turn last night. They started talking about Tesla. Two of them had been discussing how it looked like a great buy.

The conversation took all the usual twists and turns where I addressed comments about panel gaps and recalls and explained FUD to them, as well as who might be driven to spread it.

In the end they thanked me several times for providing the counterpoint and context behind what they had been seeing in the MSM.

Falling knife? I wouldn't worry too much about that.

Even the common, non-Tesla fanatics know these are Blue Light Specials at TSLAmart!
 
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The Boring Company documents for the RFP of the San Jose Airport Connector to the main transit station, Diridon, is available for public viewing:

Screenshot 2024-05-10 at 7.53.47 AM.png



Boring Company did not win on a City Council meeting on 4/2023 and Glydways did:


Here's some more info about Glydways implementation which directly looks like Tesla's loop: https://catc.ca.gov/-/media/ctc-med...pinks-presentations/tab-24-4-36-pres-a11y.pdf
 
Would you buy a new car without Autopilot? I’m not even talking about FSD.

I know this question isn't directed towards me, but I found something interesting on my first highway drive without FSD in a week's time:

It's easy to tell the difference between the car driving itself, and the smoothness of keeping within the lanes on curves, than when I'm driving and I, naturally, try to hug the lanes on curves. It felt safer to be on FSD and got more satisfaction of feeling fresh after a 30 minute highway drive. Hope that helps.
 

Probably manual payments from the old site commissioning team.

I wonder if different payment terms in Sweden/Norway.

I remember discussions in uk about following other countries' treatment of invoices and due dates as UK large companies rarely paid small ones within 6 months.

In those other countries, I seem to remember that small businesses had to be paid within 30 days. This led to problems with foreign companies not adjusting their practices.

Swedish/Norwegian members have any info?
 
  • Informative
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