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Speaking of which. I occasionally check to see if there are any new superchargers in Chile. There are still zero. That surprises me as I thought with the building of a showroom there it was an indication of a future or new market. Thoughts?

I am bewildered by this one, especially since they could cover the entire country with a dozen or so Superchargers. A long-narrow country is not difficult.

Might be helpful, Tesla was trying to get mining operations for lithium in Chile years ago.


Edit: Also -


And

 
Why do you think the FSD tracker is flawed? (I also partially share this thought, but always curious to get another perspective)

But as a broader point, if Tesla is just about to turn the switch on a robotaxi moneymaking fleet, with 25B in the bank, what's the logic behind antagonizing and demoralizing a good part of your workforce, just as you need everyone at their top of their game for a succesul launch? Unless it's not close to being solved and they need those 25B as runway... Food for thought.
I have given up trying to read every post but, it seems to me that the "firing" of 500 SC workers is nothing more than an evolution from an employee-based workforce to local contractors- based workforce. Just another lowering of COGS and other operational costs. All good.
 
Yep. Around here we have lots of people considering an EV for their next vehicle. We often get asked questions. Even offer a test drive. But it stops there because although they are sure they will be buying an EV next it definitely won’t be a Tesla because of Elon. It’s just the way it is now.

When someone says they won't get a Tesla because of Elon, the next question I ask them is this: "If Elon had a grabber today and the succession plan was put into place, would Tesla the company immediately stop being evil?"
 
Delivery information coming in so far for first halve of Q2 is showing demand weakness again. There is data from China, Europe, and VIN data in the U.S. indicated deliveries are definitely going to be way behind 2023 Q2.

They also will be only a little better than Q1. There really at this point should be no more conjecture that "supply chain issues" explained the low deliveries in Q1. It's just simply incorrect.


The demand issue seems further validated by Tesla introducing low interest rate financing.

It will be interesting to see what the financial modelers spit out, but I would imagine automotive earnings will nearly be flat QoQ.

In addition, I think there is the realization happening that FSD subscription increases won't be helping the company financially for quite a while. The 50% cut in FSD subscription prices means that subscriptions will need to double just to make back the money lost from the price cut on current subscribers. FSD subscriptions will need to triple or quadruple probably to even have any real subtle effect on EPS. Not happening for a year at least, and that would be if the FSD gets really good, near robotaxi level.

With Megapack growth capacity stalled until 2025 (meaning no huge further gains until 2026) and Semi delayed, we are essentially now waiting to see what net income can be derived from a fully ramped Cybertruck line as the main contributor to incremental earnings in the next 12 months.

For Q4 if I assume a $80k ASP for 3,000 Cybertrucks / week with 20% operating margins, I get about 600 million in operational income (before taxes). So maybe $0.15 in incremental EPS from Cybertruck.

With costs going down from layoffs and some projects slowing and some additional Megapack revenue, maybe we could get a $0.2 to $0.25 increase in EPS by Q4. Maybe $0.6 or $0.7.

If we can, maybe the market will model $3.5 in EPS in 2025. With a forward PE of say 50, we would get $175 target share price, which coincidentally is near where we are today.

So I think the stock may oscillate around this price +/- 20% depending on sentiment until we get information that would materially affect earnings projections in 2025.
Any idea how the low cost financing will affect earnings?
 
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Delivery information coming in so far for first halve of Q2 is showing demand weakness again. There is data from China, Europe, and VIN data in the U.S. indicated deliveries are definitely going to be way behind 2023 Q2.

They also will be only a little better than Q1. There really at this point should be no more conjecture that "supply chain issues" explained the low deliveries in Q1. It's just simply incorrect.


The demand issue seems further validated by Tesla introducing low interest rate financing.
....
Tesla introduced 0% financing in China on 4/24, and the 2 weeks since, 4/22-5/5, showed the highest sales (weekly insurance regs) for weeks 4-5 in all recent quarters, after wks 1-3 got off to the worst start of any recent quarters. Q2 week 5 has China's Labor holiday, and they're doing much better this year compared with how much it dropped off last year. Roland Pircher has a good visualization on this
 
This thread is interesting. It reflects that Musk is asking employees, investors, and supporters to sign up for what he sees as the AI future. There will be lots of churn for each of these three groups. This thread will remain messy for a while. All of this is OK. This seems like a good time for changes to happen. I will probably sign up.

I respect @unk45's opinions and decisions. Thanks to him for expressing those, even as he exited his investment. Most others have just disappeared from this thread, as they moved on to other discussions in other forums regarding other investments or potential investments. So far, I have no qualms with how he expresses his opinions.

Regarding Musk, we should want him to exercise his agency more, not less. With maybe a couple exceptions, executives at big companies exercise little agency and have a bias to inaction. They cannot alter course and their companies end up zombies. Much of Musk's role at this stage in Tesla's existence is to swing the hammer and introduce chaos into the system. Understandable that many are unhappy or caught off guard when he does this. This surprise and dissatisfaction may be unavoidable, but preferable to the threat of entropy. Watch Andrej Karpathy's comments on this score.

Musk will make mistakes, some major. I don't like Mark Zuckerberg, but he is another clear example of agency in a big company that comes to mind (he has made major mistakes too, some of which he clings to). Helpful to compare and contrast. I don't know that Musk's management of Twitter is applicable, because it is not a very big company. SpaceX is the same vintage as Tesla. It might be worthwhile to compare and contrast Musk's actions with SpaceX and Tesla, albeit that SpaceX's size is about an order of magnitude smaller than Tesla's. They do have roughly similar market caps.

As for the substance of this AI direction, I am still trying to understand more fully where this is all headed. Musk's expertise has been to put together disparate technologies to create wonderful products. Not all of this has been smooth. It's important to consider that this is not easy. Sometimes, the timing of each of these technology developments does not align cleanly at the product level. As an example, I wonder whether, say, three more years of work before Robotaxi would be acceptable to me as an investor.
 
Great reminder, thanks. Also save/export studies and any other customizations. Hopefully Monday goes smoothly.

I’m sad to see the TD mobile app go, I prefer it over the TOS mobile app since it has larger typefaces and served my needs very well the last several years. Now I’ll need to get used to the TOS mobile app.

Change all around.
PSA - if you’re making periodic payments with TDAmeritrade, you need to set them up anew with Schwab.

Financed a new Tesla with monthly payments from TDAmeritrade? Don’t forget to log into your Schwab account and set them up to continue through Schwab.
 
Delivery information coming in so far for first halve of Q2 is showing demand weakness again. There is data from China, Europe, and VIN data in the U.S. indicated deliveries are definitely going to be way behind 2023 Q2.

They also will be only a little better than Q1. There really at this point should be no more conjecture that "supply chain issues" explained the low deliveries in Q1. It's just simply incorrect.


The demand issue seems further validated by Tesla introducing low interest rate financing.

It will be interesting to see what the financial modelers spit out, but I would imagine automotive earnings will nearly be flat QoQ.

In addition, I think there is the realization happening that FSD subscription increases won't be helping the company financially for quite a while. The 50% cut in FSD subscription prices means that subscriptions will need to double just to make back the money lost from the price cut on current subscribers. FSD subscriptions will need to triple or quadruple probably to even have any real subtle effect on EPS. Not happening for a year at least, and that would be if the FSD gets really good, near robotaxi level.

With Megapack growth capacity stalled until 2025 (meaning no huge further gains until 2026) and Semi delayed, we are essentially now waiting to see what net income can be derived from a fully ramped Cybertruck line as the main contributor to incremental earnings in the next 12 months.

For Q4 if I assume a $80k ASP for 3,000 Cybertrucks / week with 20% operating margins, I get about 600 million in operational income (before taxes). So maybe $0.15 in incremental EPS from Cybertruck.

With costs going down from layoffs and some projects slowing and some additional Megapack revenue, maybe we could get a $0.2 to $0.25 increase in EPS by Q4. Maybe $0.6 or $0.7.

If we can, maybe the market will model $3.5 in EPS in 2025. With a forward PE of say 50, we would get $175 target share price, which coincidentally is near where we are today.

So I think the stock may oscillate around this price +/- 20% depending on sentiment until we get information that would materially affect earnings projections in 2025.

This is a reasoned post and I agree with most of it, the next year or so will not show a significant growth, however I believe foundations are being laid for a a return to growth in 2026-2030 and beyond. We will know more come 8/8, but for me this is a time to accumulate and hold.
 
Elon's mean tweets are irritating potential customers and hurting sales. All my friends say this.

Only 2% or less people read or follow twitter and as such it is an utter PR failure for Musk's messages.

Same people. Different threads.

I don't think those are contradictory at all once you recognize most media will greatly amplify any controversial thing he posts.

The vast vast vast majority of folks I hear in real life complaining about stuff Elon said on twitter didn't read it on twitter- they read a news story about what he posted on twitter.

Whereas few of those much more widely read sources are doing stories on when Elon posts anything else.


As a developer/builder, I define 'started' as breaking ground, as in permit in permit box on site, contractor hired, all ducks in a row and physically moving dirt and starting actual physical building. As does the whole construction/development profession.

'Started' doesn't mean, 'planing', 'permits submitted', 'developing', 'permitted', 'support from the Gov.', etc.

It's not like Elon doesn't have a history of telling lies like these to pump the stock.

Given TBC isn't a public company, what stock do you imagine was being pumped here?
 
Tesla introduced 0% financing in China on 4/24, and the 2 weeks since, 4/22-5/5, showed the highest sales (weekly insurance regs) for weeks 4-5 in all recent quarters, after wks 1-3 got off to the worst start of any recent quarters. Q2 week 5 has China's Labor holiday, and they're doing much better this year compared with how much it dropped off last year. Roland Pircher has a good visualization on this
So are you advocating for Tesla to do something that most on the thread laughed about OEMs doing? If Tesla moves to have a dealer network is that great or ?
 
I think advertising is more complex than this. Right off the bat, probably most of those views on Elon’s posts are people who actively follow him and they are less likely to need advertising or clarification/defence in the first place.

That’s like going into Red Lobster and shouting about endless shrimp to all the people already sitting in the restaurant.
People might follow Elon, but that doesnt mean they are obsessively following every press release by Tesla. If Tesla introduce a new color for the model Y, or a new trim, or there is a new report about the efficiency of cybertruck, Elon can tweet and ensure everyone following him hears about it. That has huge value.
Elon has 182.9million followers
Tesla hasnt even sold a car to 5% of those people YET. Thats a huge, huge swathe of people who regularly get drip-fed news and updates about the company from the CEO directly. Thats absolutely nuts.

If you want to know what bad PR looks like. Ask the super-high paid marketing execs at apple:
 
As a developer/builder, I define 'started' as breaking ground, as in permit in permit box on site, contractor hired, all ducks in a row and physically moving dirt and starting actual physical building. As does the whole construction/development profession.

'Started' doesn't mean, 'planing', 'permits submitted', 'developing', 'permitted', 'support from the Gov.', etc.

It's not like Elon doesn't have a history of telling lies like these to pump the stock.
Re: 'Started' doesn't mean, 'planing', 'permits submitted', 'developing', 'permitted', 'support from the Gov.', etc.
Wrong again. As an architect it certainly does.
 

You may also want to read the left side of the Y axis. Note that the cumulative trials (of whatever data sample was pulled) reaches nearly 3,500. 20% conversion rate would be ~700. 2% would be ~70. Where's that dark bar showing cumulative conversions? Oh yeah, nowhere near 700.

I'll take an apology and a reversal of your serial downvoting of all my posts.
@DarkandStormy
yet =>you<= were basing your 2% of 100% right side Y axis, <==

The Left axis is irrelevant to the discussion.
I suspect you read it incorrectly for some unknown reason

If you are using bad or incomplete data or interpretation of same, just say so.
I have had to eat plenty of crow over the decades and it is easy to do when necessary
 
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It's not like Elon doesn't have a history of telling lies like these to pump the stock.

You keep saying this, and yet you've produced no proof, and only shown us that you're the one willing to twist the truth to fit your agenda.

For the sake of everyone on this thread, once you've been sufficiently proven wrong, please don't keep belaboring the point. I think it's important that we refute misinformation on this thread, but it needs to be refuted and then the people in the conversation need to move on or take it to another thread.

Start another thread about the DC-NYC tunnel if you want to keep being proven wrong about it. This will be the last I'll say of the topic here.
 
When someone says they won't get a Tesla because of Elon, the next question I ask them is this: "If Elon had a grabber today and the succession plan was put into place, would Tesla the company immediately stop being evil?"
No idea. In the old days it was rare to have to convince someone to go tesla. It was THE brand. Now it’s just the opposite. As long as they have access to the supercharger network they don’t care. So I usually just recommend ford then as they are available everywhere here and with lots of selection. A few have bought, they seem happy with their purchase. They have been buying the A2Z adapter so they can use the superchargers. They are still waiting for the ford adapter.

Anyway, tesla is building a service centre/showroom about 50 kilometres away so people won’t have to go to Vancouver to get their car or for service. That may help sales in this area.

I think it’s probably too late though. There is a strong anti Elon/Tesla mindset by EV drivers and potential EV drivers here. I don’t think one can unwind that clock. It’s no longer worth trying to convince new costumers otherwise as even some tesla drivers tell them to look at other brands. People are willing to have a lesser car if it means it’s not associated with Elon/Tesla…as long as it can charge at superchargers. At least in this area once the other manufacturers get access to the supercharger network tesla demand will evaporate.

Jmho. Not an expert.
 
The demand in 2023 was artificially high due to an endless stream of promotions, from inventory discounts to fsd transfers and even free supercharging transfers. I’m not even mentioning lower prices. I was one of the persons incentivized by free supercharging transfer to buy 1 or 2 quarters (maybe even longer) earlier than planned.
The public needs to learn that there is no point anymore to wait for end of quarter promotions. Then demand will stabilize at whatever it is. For now, demand is lower because of all the people fished out of the pool of potential buyers earlier than planned.
On top of that now Tesla is offering 0% financing. The oldest trick in the OEM database of ways to drive sales. The other things are still there, price cuts, FSD deals, etc. Now 0% money when interest is not 0%. Free FSD transfer or supercharging is one thing, this is new. What does this do to q3 sales?
 
Might be helpful, Tesla was trying to get mining operations for lithium in Chile years ago.


Edit: Also -


And

Does that help understand why no Superchargers? It is odd, especially because Santiago de Chile has one of the world’s largest municipal electric bus fleets, perhaps the largest one outside China;

:How Santiago became one of the first cities to electrify public transport at scale