Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVWatcher]

Twitter did grok

Grok was developed by xAI, not x/twitter. You can even ask grok.

 

[dhanson865]

If we're going to attack semantics on my posts regularly, please re-read before you make assumptions. I never mentioned my interpretation on his voiced intentions is Earth or Mars. I'm just interpretating his words about going to Mars.

I would highly doubt if someone of his caliber of intelligence and ethics would make the viability of the two mutually exclusive. Also, there's something to be said for Mars requiring a healthy Planet Earth to subsist a human civilization on that planet, no?

It's 8 words, I can't see how you think I misinterpreted it. What do you think the word "just" means?

I'd say it's equivalent to "only" in that context.

So I replied to that connotation.

Educate me on the usage of the word just there so I don't make that mistake again.

 

[unk45]

No, just no.

Most TSLA investors can see through the short-term issues that have been affecting TSLA and most can see the long-term remarkable strengths. Short-term, China has been a difficult auto market for everyone, but if you look at Roland Pircher's charts on x.com, you can see that Tesla is on track to match 2023's China insurance registrations, which is a real positive in this environment. Some of the oversupply in China EV manufacturing will be eliminated through this tough time, which is how supply and demand come back into equilibrium with each other. Pircher's Europe data shows a 7.5% dip over 2023 as of end of April. In the U.S., Tesla is the EV maker that dominates the market but it is feeling the effects of no IRA incentives for two out of three Model 3 flavors. Many potential buyers for Model 3 are simply waiting for Tesla to shift the battery supply (may be in 2025) before buying so that they can realize the incentive. Cybertruck is a big hit and will be growing in production substantially as 2024 progresses. Auto buying in the U.S. overall will perk up after interest rates start coming down, and that's a waiting game. Here's the important point, though: Tesla is still generating BILLIONS in cash flow that it is using to fund its next moves.

Here are Tesla's next moves:
* Tesla is projecting that Energy product deliveries grow 75% in 2024 compared to 2023. That's a high margin business at present and energy is going to be generating BILLIONS of dollars in cash before long
* In late 2024 or 2025, Tesla will reveal the lower-cost models that will use a combination of Gen 2 and Gen 3 construction techniques. Tesla will extend its lead in North America's EV market and these same vehicles will sell worldwide in time.
* By the end of 2024 Tesla will have spent $10 BILLION in expanding its AI compute power so that it can better train FSD, Optimus robots, and more general AI objectives. Only a handful of companies are capable of expanding their AI compute this quickly and it's necessary to give Neural Nets the power to speed up the development of FSD and Optimus. Here's the kicker, though: Google, Meta, and Microsoft lack the manufacturing chops to compete head to head with Tesla in robotics, and only Tesla has the EV know how and data to quickly spin up a domineering position in the robotaxi world. Tesla's robotaxi reveal on August 8 will further illustrate Tesla's lead in reaching the insanely high margins that come to operating the first really widespread robotaxi fleet. Useful, unsupervised FSD will HUGELY affect Tesla's ability to sell its vehicles because 1) FSD is so useful for the elderly or for people who want to turn their attention elsewhere while in the vehicle, and 2) fleet operators will buy Teslas to operate on Tesla's robotaxi network.

So, Tesla's automobile revenues continue to generate the funds to facilitate BIG profit centers known as Tesla Energy, Tesla (robotaxi) Network, and Optimus robots while developing new vehicle types and waiting for the economic environment to improve. You need to step back and look at the whole of Tesla to appreciate where this company is heading.

There is no question that this post represents the best bull case.

It does dismiss any competition in BESS and grid services, in which there are now numerous global competitors with equivalent or better product arrays. Ones such as Huawei are now typical.

Integrated Smart Energy | Huawei Digital Power

Huawei helps reduce power costs, improve efficiency, and curb carbon emissions through the dual-carbon consulting services, generation-grid-load-storage solution, and Dual-carbon Co-mind platform.

digitalpower.huawei.com

Note that some of those have large-scale capacity today. EU has several too.

It also dismisses others developing vehicle autonomy and robotics.

Nobody thus far can come close to replicating a Cybertruck equivalent,

BYD, though is highly competitive in busses, integrated energy services like Tesla and Huawei (including all the grid services, residential, utility and industrial, cars, batteries, trucks and more).

Tesla may have that rosy future, we all hope it does. Even so, the entire world has a supply of high innovative and competent firms who dominate many global markets. Most of them are not very evident in the US.

I do not want to dismiss Tesla's bright future. I do want to encourage a bit of awareness fo the rest of the world outside the US.

Note: while helping with development of multiple residential and commercial projects in Brazil, seeking bids for the renewable energy integration, Tesla never responded to multiple requests, despite them having supplied one of the first in the country for Vale. BYD, Huawei and two others responded with comprehensive solutions.

I admit that these events have dampened my enthusiasm regarding my previous impression of Tesla dominance. Bluntly, in Tesla Energy they are NOT as dominant as many reports claim, nor are the public data reflective of the present project flows, which will not produce installed base for at least another year. Tesla was absolutely dominating in developing this industry with the Hornsdale Power Reserve, nobody was even close. Today...competitors are appearing very rapidly.

Humanoid robots, brain implants, energy products, generative AI, vehicle automation, even vehicle manufacturing...competitors are growing rapidly.

In most of these areas probably Tesla and other Musk companies will lead the US.
Only with SpaceX are competitors far behind.

Are these points irrelevant? Frankly, I hope so. I hope I'm not correct. Obviously, my perspective is not drawn from the US. Perhaps I'm too pessimistic.

 

[sunwarriors]

Mmmm.
Things don't happen in a vacuum: 2023 was very very good, but 2024 has been a bloodbath so far for kinda everyone in the EV world.
How is BYD doing, in EVs? How are the Americans or Europeans? From what I've seen, market is tight for everyone.

The question is whether EV growth is sustainable for Tesla or simply, if the consumer/industry even wants them after the initial adopters.


Unlike near every other automaker, Tesla simply has nothing to fall back on while consumers are still loving Hybrids apparently no matter how much you or I own/support EVs. Politically, 50% mostly deny climate/EV/IRA/anything so those folks are less likely to jump on the EV bandwagon as well. BYD doesn't even compete in America.

For uber growth companies, no growth= stalled/down stock. We'll all see how fast they can ramp up anything else that's that their basic EV selling line for now, but China has pretty much 0 growth and we will have to see how EU does since it looks worst there in the major markets.

Hybrid sales are booming — here's why drivers are buying them over EVs

Sales of partially battery-powered vehicles, once ridiculed as a "phase" by the likes of Elon Musk, are rocketing even as EVs stutter.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Webeevdrivers]

The question is whether EV growth is sustainable for Tesla or simply, if the consumer/industry even wants them after the initial adopters.


Unlike near every other automaker, Tesla simply has nothing to fall back on while consumers are still loving Hybrids apparently no matter how much you or I own/support EVs. Politically, 50% mostly deny climate/EV/IRA/anything so those folks are less likely to jump on the EV bandwagon as well. BYD doesn't even compete in America.

For uber growth companies, no growth= stalled/down stock. We'll all see how fast they can ramp up anything else that's that their basic EV selling line for now, but China has pretty much 0 growth and we will have to see how EU does since it looks worst there in the major markets.

Hybrid sales are booming — here's why drivers are buying them over EVs

Sales of partially battery-powered vehicles, once ridiculed as a "phase" by the likes of Elon Musk, are rocketing even as EVs stutter.

www.businessinsider.com

I think there are still lots of untapped markets for tesla. Kinda wondering what’s happening in Chile. I thought they were going to expand there but other than a showroom I don’t see any superchargers going in.

Also noticed no new sites being announced on the supercharger info site, or at least not since the big shakeup. It still shows new sites opening and sites under construction but those were underway before the big lay off. Hmm.

 

[SOULPEDL]

In for 25 shares today.
No clue why it dropped.

 

[Stormy24]

In for 25 shares today.
No clue why it dropped.

It drops on good news bad news and no news. It also goes up on good news no news and bad news. It’s like the company has nothing to do with the stock….

 

[M|S|M MYP]

In for 25 shares today.
No clue why it dropped.

Because...Tuesday?

 

[SOULPEDL]

It drops on good news bad news and no news. It also goes up on good news no news and bad news. It’s like the company has nothing to do with the stock….

Any other guesses?
Here's one: Heading off the Good China orders this quarter before anyone figures out how smashing Q2 volume will be.
Buy the Dip!

 

[stef]

check notes ... max pain at 175 ...

... tail wagging the dog, business as usual

 

[Chartered321]

It drops on good news bad news and no news. It also goes up on good news no news and bad news. It’s like the company has nothing to do with the stock….

It drops because it's gonna be manipulated until the 13th of june, that's how WS makes money...

 

[SOULPEDL]

check notes ... max pain at 175 ...
View attachment 1051278
... tail wagging the dog, business as usual

Yes but it's only "Mon" (Tues). My crystal ball says 185 by Fri. Screw max pain.

 

[Knightshade]

Similar to this thread? Any other guesses?
Here's one: Heading off the Good China orders this quarter before anyone figures out how smashing Q2 volume will be.
Buy the Dip!

Currently available WW data (rather than say, a single week in china) suggests Q2 will also be down, significantly YoY from previous Q2... just not AS down as Q1 was because Fremont appears to have resolved the barely-making-any-3s issues they had in Q1 and the financing incentives are helping some. I suppose one can contextualize that as "smashing" in an overall tough time for EVs, but it's still not a narrative WS is likely to enjoy.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Because...Tuesday?

Oh totally! So then Wed is it!

 

[UrsS]

I admit that these events have dampened my enthusiasm regarding my previous impression of Tesla dominance. Bluntly, in Tesla Energy they are NOT as dominant as many reports claim, nor are the public data reflective of the present project flows, which will not produce installed base for at least another year. Tesla was absolutely dominating in developing this industry with the Hornsdale Power Reserve, nobody was even close. Today...competitors are appearing very rapidly.

Mission accomplished! If your goal is to get mankind to transition to sustainable energy then Tesla/Musk did exactly what was needed. Now there are multiple entities/business' doing exactly that. So no need for Tesla to 'dominate' any longer.
Maybe not ideal for TSLA investors but better for humankind.

 

[Linkmeup]

Mission accomplished! If your goal is to get mankind to transition to sustainable energy then Tesla/Musk did exactly what was needed. Now there are multiple entities/business' doing exactly that. So no need for Tesla to 'dominate' any longer.
Maybe not ideal for TSLA investors but better for humankind.

Actually, that should be a good thing for TSLA too. Bigger ecosystem of competitors in a space grows the entire market and TAM...which means analysts needs to re-analyze the TAM and make it larger to fit everyone in as that shows demand past just one player. It's not like TSLA was going to have 100% of the EV market. Same with autonomy.

 

[elasalle]

You think we’ll be eligible even if we voted no?

Voted No, Hate Elon but still want Factory tour with Elon eh?
What for- to smell Elons stinky socks

 

[Usain]

It's not like TSLA was going to have 100% of the EV market. Same with autonomy.

With autonomy, it's looking like Tesla will dominate for several years.

Tesla's approach appears to be the only viable one. If so, nobody will be able to match it for a very long time.

 

[unk45]

Mission accomplished! If your goal is to get mankind to transition to sustainable energy then Tesla/Musk did exactly what was needed. Now there are multiple entities/business' doing exactly that. So no need for Tesla to 'dominate' any longer.
Maybe not ideal for TSLA investors but better for humankind.

That is an excellent point. In my most humble opinion, perhaps that largest single contribution of Tesla to energy efficiency and renewability was Autobidder. The evidence of that is a very common practice now round the world is to use similar technologies to manage grid services integrating multiple sources, including solar and wind, but also all the other sources. The net result, even when using dirty sources such as coal, is it stabilize use fo the least flexible sources and fill with the most flexible sources, thus reducing pollution from the entire system. Without the remarkable almost instantaneous response of Autobidder and its mimics much of the recent success would ahem been impossible. After all, before Autobidder, 15 minute response was considered fast, not nano-seconds as it is now.

That single thing is transforming utility efficiency in many countries.

 

[Linkmeup]

With autonomy, it's looking like Tesla will dominate for several years.

Tesla's approach appears to be the only viable one. If so, nobody will be able to match it for a very long time.

...what if they license it out and burgeon for the development of other competitors in the space like Waymo and Cruise, as an example? Wouldn't they be growing the robotaxi market through pay-for-ride service while, also, doubling up on the revenue from licensing out FSD?