Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Musskiah]

When

The pure genius of Elon buying Twitter will not be fully understood in a thousand of years due to the lack of humans understanding.

BTW, nobody was whining when Bezos bought WP, which is close to WC.

Absolutely. Elon's purchase of The Bird causes such a stir because it is the ultimate move to disrupt the MM (Mainstream Media). WP will never influence people in the ways X will grow to.

 

[GatorMeat]

The pure genius of Elon buying Twitter will not be fully understood in a thousand of years due to the lack of humans understanding.

BTW, nobody was whining when Bezos bought WP, which is close to WC.

I don't recall Bezos selling and tanking AMZN on the open market to buy WP nor telling customers to GFY nor go full *sugar* post influencer mode

 

[AudubonB]

Not that I'm minding the gradual run up today for TSLA, but has there been any tangible news today to prompt this? Seems like there was massive buying right out of the gate, the money makers got a lid on it after a bit but its been gradually creeping up ever since. Is there a catalyst, or is the moon just in the correct phase tonight?

I’ll assert a likely cause remains what I conjectured a short while back: There was bound to come a time when both investment professionals, retail investors and those….mischievous…market makers began to cycle out of NVDA. The amount of such funds when an erstwhile >$3T market cap is involved is itself a large, large number AND a significant fraction of those investors will keep their funds in the high tech sector. TSLA is as likely to be the benefactor as MSFT, AAPL and other such; even more so because of its near-term underperformance.

Such a rotation does not happen instantaneously, other than through the actions of the more perspicacious of market makers. Institutional investors, in particular, are not known for being Quick Draw McGraws. However, there is a quarter-end drawing nigh and that always is conducive of window dressing activities amongst portfolio managers. Will the collective action be to show a quartely rise or fall in amounts of TSLA, NVDA and so forth to be the greater decision? The 13Fs will show. Unfortunately, they are not due until mid-August: 45 days after quarter-end.

 

[jamaatta]

Optimus can't come too soon. Meanwhile, in Sweden:

"A third man has been found dead at his home following his shift at Northvolt [battery factory]. In light of this development, Norran can reveal that the police's environmental crimes unit has launched an investigation into the deaths of all three individuals who worked at the battery factory."

Triple tragedy – police investigate link in worker deaths

A third man has been found dead at his home following his shift at Northvolt. In light of this development, Norran can reveal that the police's...

norran.se

 

[hobbes]

Just installed Autopark in the EU on my 2023 no USS Model Y - software updates set to Advanced. Out of the blue!
View attachment 1060067

Me too

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1805813116690706682

 

[jamaatta]

End of quarter looking much better, what comes to Spain, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and Norway.

Electric Vehicle registrations in Europe: 15 countries, majority of BEV market

 

[raffiniert]

I don't recall Bezos selling and tanking AMZN on the open market to buy WP nor telling customers to GFY nor go full *sugar* post influencer mode

Isn't it relatively tedious to make a post like this with user 1, and then log in with user 2, 3 and 4 to at least give the post the appearance of approval?

 

[Mengy]

Anyone else watch Ark Invest talking about Robotaxi valuations for Tesla over the next five years?

I generally agree with their outlook in the long term, but I feel their timeline is way too optimistic. Its going to take time for the RT fleet to be built, deploy, and take hold. Not to mention FSD needs to be solved yet for RT's to even work. Ark seems to hinge a lot of their valuation on a large percentage of current Tesla owners instantly joining the RT fleet in the next year or two, and I think that is highly unlikely. I still feel a minority of Tesla owners will even put their cars into the RT fleet. I also think RT profits will be smaller and with lower margins than Ark predicts.

$2600 / share is something I could see happening someday for TSLA with both RTs and Optimus being sold, but I think that's like 10-20 years out, not 5 years from now.

 

[TurbineCar]

Etherlopp is great, much better than can from bandwidth perspective.
In house controllers are awesome , software defined vehicle ftw ... BUT


Seeing the video I was thinking how much effort would it be for Ford to "just license fsd" for a future fortd car.

Tesla is on a hole different hardware and abstraction layer than the hole industry - which is awesome, but does this mean fsd is exclusive as of dependencies?

Explains a bit why cybertruck fsdb was late, the architecture is vastly different than the can based cars before ....

Just food for thought

As a Tier One supplier in the early 1990's, we worked on early Canbus for Chrysler. Basically different momentary resistance values for each function in the bus. Example, door unlock 1500 ohms and lock 2000 ohms. For Ford we worked on prototype 48V about the same time. Here we are 30+ years later and it took the fresh perspective of Tesla to make it happen.

 

[alexxs88]

The problem with Ark is not that they're overly optimistic on their valuations model, but that they're overly optimistic on their targets as well. If you look at their model for 2024 done in 2020, it's miles off.

 

[Usain]

The problem with Ark is not that they're overly optimistic on their valuations model, but that they're overly optimistic on their targets as well. If you look at their model for 2024 done in 2020, it's miles off.

I think the other problem is that it's just fundamentally specious to assign a price target when you are considering the robotaxi business. Their monte carlo simulation is the right tool for the job, but it still just amounts to a wild guess.

We don't really know how Tesla's robotaxi business will play out. When you do take a close look, the numbers get crazy but it's still just that.

Crazy.

 

[hobbes]

End of quarter looking much better, what comes to Spain, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and Norway.

Electric Vehicle registrations in Europe: 15 countries, majority of BEV market

Also, people in Europe who want to get a FSD transfer can only get it for S and X (data points from Germany and Switzerland who contacted Tesla to transfer it to Highland 3).

 

[Creekstalker]

I quoted you using em man. Twice.




You also wrongly picked comparing one only two years into production to one 11 years into it.

And also got the amazon thing entirely wrong.

And tried to use the fact they're still doing cap raises (despite Tesla doing them even further away in years from founding than Rivian is doing) as a talking point.

And now deny you said this stuff and accuse me of bringing it up? Despite me citing YOU saying these things?



No, I quoted you choosing therm. I literally cited YOUR words about the cap raises and the production numbers.




Third time now- I quoted YOU and replied to YOUR words.

Here's YOU citing the Rivian 2-years-into-mass-production number.



And I pointed out that's significantly higher than Tesla produced 2 years into mass production.

I even tried to help you out by suggesting the (many more) metrics by which Rivian at this point (both years of production and years since founding) were behind Tesla-- but instead you want to.... deny you ever said the original stuff where Rivian actually looks good in comparison to Tesla at the same point?


Not sure what hill you think you're dying on, but it's not a productive one....but if you REALLY wanna keep doing... whatever this is... about Rivian there's a whole thread dedicated to em:

Rivian

Tesla really needs to buy Rivian. They desperately need more products. Rivian has them. Rivian needs cash. Tesla has that. The product portfolios complement each other. It seems like a no brainer to me.

teslamotorsclub.com

and all this time I thought your avatar was a funny drawing and not an actual photo

 

[sunwarriors]

Anyone else watch Ark Invest talking about Robotaxi valuations for Tesla over the next five years?

I generally agree with their outlook in the long term, but I feel their timeline is way too optimistic. Its going to take time for the RT fleet to be built, deploy, and take hold. Not to mention FSD needs to be solved yet for RT's to even work. Ark seems to hinge a lot of their valuation on a large percentage of current Tesla owners instantly joining the RT fleet in the next year or two, and I think that is highly unlikely. I still feel a minority of Tesla owners will even put their cars into the RT fleet. I also think RT profits will be smaller and with lower margins than Ark predicts.

$2600 / share is something I could see happening someday for TSLA with both RTs and Optimus being sold, but I think that's like 10-20 years out, not 5 years from now.

No, I didn't watch that. I did see that Rimac video posted earlier. That video lacked any actual driving, but since mobileye is already out there, it's less of a stretch to assume it works (as well as Mobileye does). Waymo is fully open in SF as well for all users as of yesterday.

Found this recent take on Ark/TSLA from someone else who is short TSLA and wanted to use their time:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700984-arkk-is-wrong-about-tesla-and-the-rest-of-their-portfolio

Ark has been wrong on a lot of their picks (biggest was dumping NVDA at the worst possible time in 2022/2023) and have underperformed the market in all time periods I checked. Take their stock picks for what can/may/not happen in the future. I'm more of the belief that whatever Cathie does, do the opposite and you will probably do better. That'd probably be one reason I'm less bullish on Tesla (since she is and she is usually wrong).

Worst performance in every single time period listed here:

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) Performance History - Yahoo Finance

Current and Historical Performance Performance for ARK Innovation ETF on Yahoo Finance.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[mspohr]

Software is a major issue for VW, something they need to sort out ASAP.

Software from Rivian might be a good solution.

It's the software.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/cloaked-audis-covert-ceo-meeting-how-vws-5-bln-rivian-bet-transpired-2024-06-27/

 

[Mengy]

No, I didn't watch that. I did see that Rimac video posted earlier. That video lacked any actual driving, but since mobileye is already out there, it's less of a stretch to assume it works (as well as Mobileye does). Waymo is fully open in SF as well for all users as of yesterday.

Found this recent take on Ark/TSLA from someone else who is short TSLA and wanted to use their time:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700984-arkk-is-wrong-about-tesla-and-the-rest-of-their-portfolio

Ark has been wrong on a lot of their picks (biggest was dumping NVDA at the worst possible time in 2022/2023) and have underperformed the market in all time periods I checked. Take their stock picks for what can/may/not happen in the future. I'm more of the belief that whatever Cathie does, do the opposite and you will probably do better. That'd probably be one reason I'm less bullish on Tesla (since she is and she is usually wrong).

Worst performance in every single time period listed here:

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) Performance History - Yahoo Finance

Current and Historical Performance Performance for ARK Innovation ETF on Yahoo Finance.

finance.yahoo.com

I saw that article on Seekingalpha, but I feel it goes too far in the opposite direction of Ark.

Tesla will probably do very well with RT's, making excellent revenues and profits which will result in TSLA going up. And seeing how close FSD is today and how fast its progressing now, plus Austin slated to start RT production next year, Tesla RTs are likely to be deployed in the next couple of years. So shorting it per the SA article would be ridiculous and very unwise IMHO.

That said, this ain't happening overnight nor quickly. Its going to take time to play out, the RT fleet will grow slowly, production of the RTs will ramp slowly with the new unboxed method, this has never been done before so the idea Tesla will be an $8 trillion company five years from now (per ARK) seems ludicrous to me. Eventually, sure, its probably going to happen, anyone who's done RT valuation models can see how ridiculously lucrative its going to be. It will just likely take much longer than Ark predicts, like 10-15 years longer.

So I feel the truth is somewhere between Ark and Seekingalpha, leaning towards a huge valuation for Tesla but over the very long term, and nowhere near as fast as Ark says it will. IMHO.

 

[FreqFlyer]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1805813116690706682

Not surprising, it why cruise ship companies are introducing it.

 

[FreqFlyer]

I look at this forum and I see posts talking about Twitter? Might as well talk about SpaceX too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/26/spacex-wins-nasa-contract-for-iss-reentry-destruction.html

 

[AndrewZ]

I honestly don’t even know what type of real analysis Ark does on their holdings and with their price targets in terms of looking at real-world limitations or realities. Reading through their stuff, it kinda sounds like they just put some data together and sandwich it between two pieces of bread before throwing it in the deep fryer — a Monte Cristo analysis I think they call it.

It’s like they don’t even pick real targets, they’ll have a blurb saying their base / bull / bear cases are just representative of the output from 2million possibilities coming out of the fryer. And they collect fees for this.