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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Accountant professional here . Large jump in profits due to
1 Increase in GP $ from increased sales numbers with large fixed costs already covered
2 Large increase in energy deployed , 20 % plus margins , again with fixed costs already covered , sales up 130 %

We also had the 14% cut in headcount. Restructuring charges (severance, etc) will be on a separate line item in the P&L which many analysts will exclude as a one time charge. The reduced headcount will have a positive impact on COGS, R&D and SG&A.

Also, Cash Flow from Operations should be strong as we will see a decrease in auto inventories.
 
We also had the 14% cut in headcount. Restructuring charges (severance, etc) will be on a separate line item in the P&L which many analysts will exclude as a one time charge. The reduced headcount will have a positive impact on COGS, R&D and SG&A.

Also, Cash Flow from Operations should be strong as we will see a decrease in auto inventories.

You forgot to mention you're an accountant professional!
 
Storage is even more of a commodity than cars. Tesla is just packaging cells with basically no moat.
Did you miss the part about quasi-infinite demand and falling cell costs?

When demand is a lot higher than supply, it doesn't matter if it's a commodity or not.

There will be no pressure on Megapack margins for a very long time.
 
You forgot to mention you're an accountant professional!
I stayed at a holiday inn last night, does that count for anything? :)
Hopefully earnings have a big surprise like today's action and we march closer to $300, we've been held down long enough and I am tired of my wife belittling me about how dumb i am investing almost everything we have in $TSLA!
 
I stayed at a holiday inn last night, does that count for anything? :)
Hopefully earnings have a big surprise like today's action and we march closer to $300, we've been held down long enough and I am tired of my wife belittling me about how dumb i am investing almost everything we have in $TSLA!
If we have solid earnings and cash flow right before the Aug 8 event, things will get interesting:

 
Was reported at least a week earlier.... and yeah it's just a license for 10 test vehicles, so nothing to get too excited about yet (also remains unclear how well/quickly FSD will localize in China given the previous data and processing constraints Tesla had been under).
Since it's using Baidu's mapping system then it's going to do well. Their mapping system is almost near HD map quality. Was watching the map animation throughout an entire 50 min drive in my cousin's car and the map picks up every little detail and knows exactly what lane the car is in at all time (on his phone). The car we were in was a 14 year old corolla with no GPS.
 
Then what do you think this meant, which was the original post that spawned this discussion?
I feel like I'm purposely putting my foot in a bear trap here, but:

One of the major points of going to NN-everywhere and the elimination of those "300 k lines of C/C++ code" was to make the entire CPU more efficient, in the sense of, "You've got a task. How much compute time does it take?"

It's well known in CS/EE that certain algorithms are far more efficient than other algorithms in order to do a given task. As a random example, take sorting: A bubble sort with a particular type of random data takes on the order of N^2, for N items in a list; while a tree sort takes order N*log(N). For a sufficiently large value of N, the tree sort is far, far faster. (And, having actually had to do this back in the deeps of time on a thoroughly inadequate Original IBM PC, this isn't a hypothetical. The difference between an hour and less than three seconds is amazing.)

With the Tesla driving computer, it's pretty clear that the original division of tasks had the NN doing mostly image recognition games, that being something that NNs are known to be far more efficient than a step-at-a-time computer. While the main CPU was tasked with taking all that nifty image data and, from that, doing the actual driving. That was then: The breakthrough was the idea that the NN could take on the driving part as well. Well, lack-a-day: We wetware types use NN to do driving (Yeah, I know, wetware != hardware, etc., etc.), so I suppose that's not a complete surprise. But Tesla's thought that this would lead to increased frame rate and, incidentally, better training.

So, from my perspective over here, this isn't a matter as to whether the GPU/NN/A12 processing units are on the same die or not (yes, yes, they are on the same die, welcome to SOC land), it's whether using different algorithms on different hardware GPU/NN/A12's results in faster, "better", processing.

Ducks and covers.
 
Accountant as a profession here. That's not how it works.
Simplified, gross profit = delivered units x (ASP - COGS).
Delivered units is known. 443k is a good number, but not a surprise anymore.
ASP and COGS have little room for surprise
So where's the massive profit is coming from?
Forgot to thank you as well @dl003 and @Robertj and of course, @The Accountant
 
Since it's using Baidu's mapping system then it's going to do well. Their mapping system is almost near HD map quality. Was watching the map animation throughout an entire 50 min drive in my cousin's car and the map picks up every little detail and knows exactly what lane the car is in at all time (on his phone). The car we were in was a 14 year old corolla with no GPS.

But we've repeatedly been told Teslas system is intended to work great without maps. It's one of the fundamental things people cite about why they'll beat Waymo once they actually have >L2 vehicles.

And the localization issue with end to end is having sufficient training data on how local good human drivers actually drive-- not knowing to what degree of precision how far the curb is from the lamp post... (that plus having sufficient GPUs to actually do the training- which had been a major problem in China for various legal reasons)
 
We also had the 14% cut in headcount. Restructuring charges (severance, etc) will be on a separate line item in the P&L which many analysts will exclude as a one time charge. The reduced headcount will have a positive impact on COGS, R&D and SG&A.

Also, Cash Flow from Operations should be strong as we will see a decrease in auto inventories.
Just to add to this, in the 10Q, Tesla estimated that the one-time restructuring charges taken in Q2 would be $350 million.
 
But we've repeatedly been told Teslas system is intended to work great without maps. It's one of the fundamental things people cite about why they'll beat Waymo once they actually have >L2 vehicles.

And the localization issue with end to end is having sufficient training data on how local good human drivers actually drive-- not knowing to what degree of precision how far the curb is from the lamp post... (that plus having sufficient GPUs to actually do the training- which had been a major problem in China for various legal reasons)
Work great without HD maps that have been scanned by Lidar numerous times. Tesla can also make decisions overriding maps navigation (ie blockage). There's no way the car can get from point A to B without any maps, especially when you pin a destination on a map.