Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years

[BriansTesla]

This seems like big news!

I think we have all the pieces, and it’s just about refining those pieces, putting them in place, and making sure they work across a huge number of environments—and then we’re done

Fortune Magazine: Elon Musk Says Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years

 

[RubberToe]

That two years is Elon time...

 

[ecarfan]

That two years is Elon time...

...which, as has been said many time before, is measured in Martian years: 1 Martian year = 1.88 Earth years

 

[Discoducky]

We should clarify what exactly Elon means and then all guess at when that will actually be in our cars to experience. And yes, that thing is way more than 2 years out.

If I was to be specific about what I think Elon means I'd guess: Full Level 4 which means the car could drive on surface and highway roads without a human in the vehicle for extended periods of time while being able to start and stop at specific locations from human commands from voice and data.

When will this be in Tesla vehicles?: Hmmm, let me think, I had that roadmap laying around somewhere

 

[hobbes]

We should clarify what exactly Elon means and then all guess at when that will actually be in our cars to experience. And yes, that thing is way more than 2 years out.

I agree - but on a relative scale, I think Elons estimate from what I remember was just cut in half or so. That should also be true for the real time, even if both estimates have the same Elon-to-real-time conversion factor of maybe 2 to 3. So a good sign even if we still don´t know when it will happen exactly.

 

[JeffS]

Over the last several months, it has become painfully clear to me that tech is going to advance to a level of "capable" many years before society makes it real. "Elon Time" aside (though this is a huge variable), there is going to be massive societal challenge to the tech capabilities.

My grandfather imprinted in my psyche "imagine in your mind...think...how stupid the average American is. Now remember... Half of them are stupider than that".

For starters... Think about the lifted-diesel-pickup-crowd. I genuinely don't think much of those and admittedly stereotype all who are into those, into the group who behave in the worst ways that makes that group so easy to stereotype...

Imagine what the lowest common denominator in that group would do to a Tesla that is driving itself. Especially in a parking lot. How to overcome that? Protect against that?

And right after that challenge come the backward thinking legislators.

Big hurddles that have nothing to do with technology. How to solve for an equation where tech must succumb to such a low common denominator.

 

[Jaff]

Remember, as the article states, level 4, whether functional in two years or not, will likely be unavailable for consumer use then as it will be subject to regulatory approval.

I rather doubt that regulatory approval would be granted within two years, as it will require extensive testing.

 

[SebastianR]

We should clarify what exactly Elon means

I think at least on this front, we know:

Musk adds an important caveat—one that raises the standard of what it means to achieve full autonomy. “When I say level 4, I mean level 4 autonomy with the probability of an accident is less than that of person,” he says.

I'm not actually sure if that caveat "raises the standard" - or - simply degrades the Level 4 to "human ability". Which means that if it snows, hails and rains like there is no tomorrow, the car just pulls over and stops (as a responsible human driver should do, too).

Level 4 is defined as:

Level 4: The vehicle performs all safety-critical functions for the entire trip, with the driver not expected to control the vehicle at any time. As this vehicle would control all functions from start to stop, including all parking functions, it could include unoccupied cars.

If you take all these things literal, you could actually accomplish amazingly much with "just" cameras and superb image/pattern recognition since human drivers can't really see if the sun shines directly into their eyes etc.

- - - Updated - - -

Remember, as the article states, level 4, whether functional in two years or not, will likely be unavailable for consumer use then as it will be subject to regulatory approval.

I rather doubt that regulatory approval would be granted within two years, as it will require extensive testing.

I think that's fair enough. As long as it works just like the autopilot now: I think there will be a time when cars are practically at level 4 but for regulatory reasons a "capable/legal human being" is still required until people think that's silly and abolish that requirement.

However the moment that regulation is abolished, a whole lot of interesting stuff will happen: DUI driving is then hopefully a thing of the past, vast amounts of bus drivers will be out of work, cab drivers and truck drivers will be unemployed etc. So I don't expect that regulation to fall too quickly - remember there are still states that don't allow self-service gas stations!

 

[bhuwan]

Will be at least 5-10 years before Tesla is able to achieve this..unless they redefine what it means by "Drive Themselves"

This is based on my experience with autopilot

 

[Discoducky]

Also, remember that all cars still must have mirrors (rear view and side view...with a few exceptions for legality of passenger side side view in a few states I believe) per state law.

Imagine how long it will take to get regulatory approval to not only remove the mirrors, but the driver, and transfer all liable actions for the moving and parked vehicle (as the car will need to park itself legally as well) to an algorithm.

Even though there will be several companies spending lots of lobbying money to convince legislators to move quickly; this will be a huge effort at the state and federal level.

It has crossed my mind which state will be first to allow this however...

 

[JeffS]

Follow the money. Those with the most to lose will be at the front of efforts to make autonomous driving difficult to implement. GEICO is a huge part of Berkshires empire, and Buffet is on the record talking about the risk to the insurance industry if we begin shifting to a largely accident-free autonomous driving society. That's just the first of the big guns.

I don't think Buffet is the type to binder progress. He's smart enough to just move investments into sectors that are positioned to win in this revolution. But he's the exception.

The opposition forces will gel. The negative PR will mount. The fear mongering will roll. The PI attorneys will salivate. The fraud attempt will happen.

Pretty standard stuff. Unfortunately.

 

[dogphlap]

I don't know about Warren Buffett and Birkshire Hathaway and how they would react to a threat to the insurance industry in the form of less accident prone traffic but I did note that they were being fingered for the substantial fall in payments from the utility to the home owner and the monopoly supply position now adopted for solar PV that Nevada implemented just prior to Christmas (hence the press has virtually ignored this) which has caused Solar City to pull out of all new installations in that state, in fact pulling out of the state altogether other than to provide service for existing installations as may be required. This of course is now last years news so even less likely to have any press attention.

 

[thegruf]

a gentle reality check might be

Tesla vehicles will drive themselves in two years (with already announced nextgen Mobileye technology which is not exclusive and which didnt quite make it into the MX launch but will be offered likely as an $10K option later in 2016 ) ... but the driver will still be responsible.

The real switchover is when the car becomes responsible (... and Tesla become liable) - and that is not in two years, Elon years or otherwise.

 

[WMAC]

Look how long it has taken to get side mirrors replaced with cameras (still aren't) Just because the tech is there, the law isn't.

 

[Mike Strauss]

It is big news! But they have competition... Ford and Apple are in talks

 

[Jaff]

Agree completely...it will take years to draft the appropriate legislation to allow self driving vehicles...updated insurance laws will have to be part of this initiative.

a gentle reality check might be

Tesla vehicles will drive themselves in two years (with already announced nextgen Mobileye technology which is not exclusive and which didnt quite make it into the MX launch but will be offered likely as an $10K option later in 2016 ) ... but the driver will still be responsible.

The real switchover is when the car becomes responsible (... and Tesla become liable) - and that is not in two years, Elon years or otherwise.