Tesla's Full Self Driving level?

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Does anyone have any links/screenshots of Tesla Corporate referencing FSD as Level 5 autonomous driving?

Some *articles about FSD reference Level 5 driving, but the FSD on Tesla's website only appears to be Level 4 in urban environments, parking lots, and on the highway, and even those are I imagine (slightly) limited in scope.

Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed. When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.

Based on this, my feeling is FSD won't be available in some or most (?) suburban driving (low freeway speeds with all the crap of urban driving), most off-road driving, and a minority of urban/highway driving. Is there anything from Tesla Corporate suggesting FSD will cover anything besides what's explicitly included in the FSD description?

* Elon Musk clarifies Tesla’s plan for level 5 fully autonomous driving: 2 years away from sleeping in the car

 

[Tam]

...Tesla Corporate...

I think what you are saying is: it is not enough for the CEO to say level 5 and is quoted in many articles. Yyou want official Tesla documentation.

Tesla blog describes it as "Full autonomy" but you are right that it never quoted an SAE number 5.

Elon said with Tesla Network, you don't have to drive to pick up a customer. You can sleep, you can be at your work and your car would pick up your riders for you.

Does that qualify as SAE 5?

If it does, then Tesla Network will have more details when activated so you will know that it's SAE 5

If you disagree that picking up riders without a driver is not SAE 5, then what kind of limitations are you referring to in order to downgrade it to Level 4?

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

I don't see where Elon said FSD is Level 5 either. His reference in the article I linked to a fully autonomous trip from CA to NY is separate from his reference to Level 5 autonomous driving.

During his TED talk yesterday, Musk reiterated that this demo drive is still planned for 2017:

“November or December of this year, we should be able to go from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York, no controls touched at any point during the entire journey.”

But Musk also said that while the driver wouldn’t have to touch the controls, he doesn’t think that it would be at a level where someone could just fall asleep at the wheel. When asked when he thinks that will be, he said about 2 years away.

If Tesla can complete a trip from CA to NY using FSD at the end of this year or sometime next year, and releases FSD to their fleet, then his estimate is that Level 5 is a couple years after that.

In terms of the levels, 2 is where Tesla currently is. It can do everything in some situations, but still needs a driver to monitor the situation and take control in some cases. 3 doesn't require a driver to monitor things, but it may require a driver to take control after the car pulls over if the car can't handle a particular case in that situation. 4 doesn't require any assistance in certain driving situations (eg on the highway), and 5 doesn't require any assistance in any driving situation.

The trip from CA to NY as described in the article could be 2 to 4. If a driver has to be behind the wheel just in case, it's 2, even if they never touch anything. If they have to be in the back seat to take over just in case the car pulls over, it's 3, and if the car can drive itself alone, that's 4. If the car by itself can go anywhere in the US a human driver can go, that's 5. FSD as described on the webpage is 3 or 4, depending on whether you'll be required to be ready to drive at some point.

I don't think the reference to the Tesla Network on the Autopilot web page implies that FSD will include the Tesla Network when it's released. If FSD is good enough, then it would enable the Tesla Network, but the description of FSD on that page isn't enough for the Tesla Network, since it only mentions the car driving itself with you in it, which could be Level 3. Like you said, the car would need to be able to drive along it's route without the need for any human intervention (Level 4) for it to operate in the Tesla Network.

FSD could be Level 4 too, but nothing in the FSD description requires Tesla to deliver Level 4 from what I can tell.

https://www.sae.org/misc/pdfs/automated_driving.pdf

 

[Tam]

...Elon said...

My take is: Whatever your doubt about the descriptions, coast-to-coast demo or the website, the intention is clear that 10/2016 hardware goal is for SAE level 5. It may fail and fall back to level 4 but it can easily be upgraded to achieve level 5.

"Musk says this means his cars will have the potential for level 5 autonomy—the highest level, which requires zero interaction from the driver."

"Tesla’s Elon Musk says the added equipment will allow for full level 5 autonomy at some point (although you can buy it today – details below),"


Tesla Motors, Inc. First Quarter 2017 Financial Results Q&A Conference Call | Tesla Motors

From Q1-2017 Earnings recording:

Martin Viecha, Redburn:" Hi, this is Martin from Redburn. I wanted to ask about the TED Talk that you had few days ago where you talked about Level 5 maybe in the next two years. And I was wondering that it's probably going to change radically the design of the car inside, and whether you foresee this in the next three years that the interior design would change quite dramatically?"

Elon Musk:"The sensor hardware and compute power required for at least level 4 to level 5 autonomy has been in every Tesla produced since October of last year, approximately. So it's a matter of upgrading the software, and we can reach level 5. And if it does seem that we need to upgrade the compute power, it's designed to be easy to upgrade, basically access it through the glove box and plug in a more powerful computer, so we don't think it will be, but if it is, that's pretty easy to do. So the important thing to appreciate is that the sensor hardware and wiring harness is necessary for full autonomy, which is essentially having the eight cameras, the radar, and ultrasonics, that's in place, so with each passing release, the car's autonomy level will improve. We had a bit of a dip, obviously because of the unexpectedly rapid transition away from MobilEye, where we would expect it to have the MobilEye chip on the board as we transition, but MobilEye refused to allow that, so then we had to basically recreate all the MobilEye functionality in about six months, which we did."

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

I don't disagree, but at the same time I think each of these milestones is separate. The hardware design may be sufficient for Level 5, but that doesn't mean the software for Tesla's coast to coast drive, FSD when it's released, or even the Tesla Network when it's released will be sufficient for Level 5. Ideally it will be, but based on Tesla's description FSD could be anything from really good Level 2 to Level 5 when it's released.

Edit - All of this is of course assuming that the current description on Tesla's website is accurate. If Tesla has some other description of FSD saying that it will enable Level 3 to 5 autonomous driving, or the equivalent, that changes things. This whole thread is to find out if that exists.

 

[Tam]

...each of these milestones is separate...

What counts is what do they mean.

Ok! They drive from coast-to-coast with no human intervention but there's still a driver in the seat.

You would say that is Level 2 because the human is in the driver's seat.

That is true according the definition.

But what count is: What's their intention? They are trying to prove that the car can drive without human but the human is there because the law requires there must be a licensed driver in control at all time.

They fulfill the law but their intention is not to prove Level 2 works. Their intention is: despite of the law that requires a human, the human had not intervened the operation at all, thus they want to prove Level 4 or 5 works.

You may dissect their words grammatically, technically, legally... but what counts is what they have explained all this mean.

They mean: buy now, once 2 conditions are met:

1) validations
2) regulatory approvals

you can sleep at home or busy at work and your car will sneak out without a driver and without disturbing you to pick up riders and make money for you.

It's just that simple.

 

[Tam]

...milestones...

Tesla has incrementally improved the system or what you call "milestones".

The system couldn't function before, but with a software update, then it could do Autopilot driving all the way to 35 MPH in 12/2016.

It kept improving one software update after another and then by 5/2017, it has been able to do Autopilot at 90 MPH.

It's incrementally getting better time after time but you only have to pay once for its intended purpose.

 

[Tam]

...to find out if that exists...

No. Self-driving does not exist right now.

Currently, it is just like a little baby and I am thrilled that it can crawl and stand with help and even walk with baby walker on wheels.

Some day the baby will grow up and be able to run independently without baby walker or babysitter, but not during its infancy stage.

And that is where we are now with Autopilot. Very infancy stage. Human have to babysit the system to make sure it drives properly and driver needs to be ready to take over the control at any second.

 

[Algbc]

I was thinking about full self driving feature while i was driving my self to work today...
1- How will self driving cars react to crossing guards?
2- construction detours?
3- jay walkers?
4- toll collection
5- urban toll collectors (pan handlers and street beggers).
6-Emergancy cars approaching behind self driving cars? Will the car pull to right?
7- pot hold?
8- fallen object on the road like tires, furniture.. etc
9. Animals on the road

 

[Tam]

1- How will self driving cars react to crossing guards?

Google has worked out that scenario since 2014.

Google's Autonomous Cars Are Smarter Than Ever at 700,000 Miles

I have no info on whether Tesla's ability.

2- construction detours?

It sounds like currently, human still needs to be in the loop either inside a car or by remote control.

Why Self-Driving Cars \Can't Even\ With Construction Zones—And What They'll Do Instead

3- jay walkers?

Tesla TACC seems to work pretty well in KmanAuto Video.

4- toll collection

Many are transitioning to electronic tolls rather than collecting cash onsite.

Driverless car companies could negotiate with conventional cash-onsite toll collectors to work out an electronic payment system for their cars.

5- urban toll collectors (pan handlers and street beggers).

If they are an obstacle, the car won't move. As soon as there's enough clearance between the car and people, it can move safely.

6-Emergancy cars approaching behind self driving cars? Will the car pull to right?

Google figured this out and has effectively practiced the protocol since 2015 as its car without a driver was pulled over by a motorcycle police. It pulled over safely into a parking lot:

7- pot hold?

Someone needs to install pothole sensor and write a program for it.

There's a Ford Fusion pothole mitigation system since 2016:

LIDAR draws a 3-dimensional picture. It senses the thickness of painted lane markers. I assume you can use to detect how deep and how wide a pothole is and program the car to react accordingly.

It's uncertain Teslavision will be able to improve to the capability of pothole detection or not.

8- fallen object on the road like tires, furniture.. etc/QUOTE]

Current Google technology can deal with road debris by 1) stopping 2) drive around to avoid hitting them.

Current Tesla technology cannot. It's unclear whether future Teslavision will advance to detect road debris or not.

9. Animals on the road

Same as #8 above. I think Google can.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

so then we had to basically recreate all the MobilEye functionality in about six months, which we did."

Not.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I don't disagree, but at the same time I think each of these milestones is separate. The hardware design may be sufficient for Level 5, but that doesn't mean the software for Tesla's coast to coast drive, FSD when it's released, or even the Tesla Network when it's released will be sufficient for Level 5. Ideally it will be, but based on Tesla's description FSD could be anything from really good Level 2 to Level 5 when it's released.

Edit - All of this is of course assuming that the current description on Tesla's website is accurate. If Tesla has some other description of FSD saying that it will enable Level 3 to 5 autonomous driving, or the equivalent, that changes things. This whole thread is to find out if that exists.

The totality of Tesla's marketing does matter, though, not just what is on the website. What did the PR, the CEO, the sales person say...

Elon most definitely was quoted "Level 5 capable" by a large number of sources. It seems this was said at the original press call for example.

 

[lunitiks]

It seems this was said at the original press call

It doesn't just seem like it, it came out loud and clear from Elon Musks mouth.

The audio clip was removed completely from YouTube shortly after. It did of course appear again later:

 

[AnxietyRanger]

It doesn't just seem like it, it came out loud and clear from Elon Musks mouth.

The audio clip was removed completely from YouTube shortly after. It did of course appear again later:

Thank you. I was hedging my words because I did not have the source at hand.

There you go @omgwtfbyobbq - this what you looked for?

 

[lunitiks]

"Level 5", "driverless", "fully autonomous"

 

[AnxietyRanger]

"Level 5", "driverless", "fully autonomous"

Yep, I did remember hearing that at the time. That was the info we had when we ordered AP2 cars last year.

What a difference a year makes... Huh?

 

[BigD0g]

I'm not holding my breath. Will wait and see how this turns out.