Thanks to Model ≡, Price increase is coming!

[MichFin]

It's pretty obvious to me that the rumors of a 100KW battery and a price increase are happening at around the same time. My guess the increased battery size means they will move to 85/100kwh instead of 70/90kwh batteries driving up the price a little.

 

[Vitold]

I expect Tesla to bundle more features to increase average selling price. I don't think they'll be increasing prices.

 

[Vitold]

It's pretty obvious to me that the rumors of a 100KW battery and a price increase are happening at around the same time. My guess the increased battery size means they will move to 85/100kwh instead of 70/90kwh batteries driving up the price a little.

Supposedly 85kWh and 90kWh design is very similar where 70kWh is not. Removing 70kWh option would streamline production. They also will have more batteries to spare since their supply contract with Benz is about to end. Therefore price increases due to discontinuation of 70kWh is very strong possibility.

 

[FlatSix911]

Interesting speculation, however the 70 is the only rear wheel drive option...

Supposedly 85kWh and 90kWh design is very similar where 70kWh is not. Removing 70kWh option would streamline production. They also will have more batteries to spare since their supply contract with Benz is about to end. Therefore price increases due to discontinuation of 70kWh is very strong possibility.

 

[RobStark]

The original kWh spread was 25 kWh from S60 to S85.

My guess is a new S75 and S100.

Same $70k base price for base model with all optioned model kissing $150K.

Almost everyone gets an option or two increasing ASP.

But Tesla can still say base price is $70k.

 

[HHHH]

RobS

The original kWh spread was 25 kWh from S60 to S85.

My guess is a new S75 and S100.

Same $70k base price for base model with all optioned model kissing $150K.

Almost everyone gets an option or two increasing ASP.

But Tesla can still say base price is $70k.

I think this makes sense. I also think that a moderate price increase is justified and will increase overall value of the Model S across the board. Tesla is in a unique position since they can control some of the preowned market with their new car prices, and since they delve so heavily in their CPO models, and further with their direct sales approach.

Incremental price increase for new Model S as well as larger capacity battery offerings while retaining low end base pricing is something that will increase the value of the preowned model S including a great deal of Tesla's own preowned inventory cars and customer cars as well.

The only downside is customer complaints or reduction in sales due to increase in price, neither of which Tesla is in jeopardy of, IMO, since they are so uniquely positioned in the BEV market, dealer market, and CPO market.

H

 

[whitex]

The original kWh spread was 25 kWh from S60 to S85.

My guess is a new S75 and S100.

Same $70k base price for base model with all optioned model kissing $150K.

Almost everyone gets an option or two increasing ASP.

But Tesla can still say base price is $70k.

Since we are sharing guesses, a new simplified lineup of 70/70D, 90D, P100D would streamline production, keep a low entry price, provide more differentiation between the models, and top off with Ludicrous+ performance.

 

[FlatSix911]

Since we are sharing guesses, a new simplified lineup of 70/70D, 90D, P100D would streamline production, keep a low entry price, provide more differentiation between the models, and top off with Ludicrous+ performance.

This makes sense

 

[ibdguru23]

It's pretty obvious to me that the rumors of a 100KW battery and a price increase are happening at around the same time. My guess the increased battery size means they will move to 85/100kwh instead of 70/90kwh batteries driving up the price a little.

That's my thinking also.

 

[marty2112]

75/100kwh. So simple.

 

[scott jones]

75/100kwh. So simple.

Why would you come out with a 70 and a 90 just to get rid of them I believe they got rid of the 85 to keep the 90 for quite some time I'm guessing like other posters have said there will be a 70 a 90 and 100

 

[ZBB]

I think there are two things going on:

1) Strong USD will result in a price increase for export markets.
2) Tesla will change up the options packages again (which they seem to do about every 9-12 months). Perhaps 1-2 things will move into the base price, while 1-2 things could move from the base car to an options package. And other options could change also.

Tesla has history of doing both… For reference, Tesla has kept prices relatively flat while increasing features. I ordered my car in March 2013 -- and I can order an identically equipped car for less (and add Autopilot and multi-coat paint for about the same price).

Here's how my '13 S60 priced out:

• Base Price - $69,900
• Pano Roof - $1500
• Leather - $1500
• Tech Package - $3750
• Parcel Shelf - $250 (yes -- this was optional on early cars)
• Supercharging enabled - $2000 (also optional on the 60s -- became standard on the 70s)
• Destination and Regulatory Doc Fee $1170
• Total $80,070

Configuring an S70 rear-wheel drive exactly the same today is:

• Base Price - $70,000 -- Now includes Supercharging, and parts of the tech package (Nav, Homelink)
• Pano Roof - $1500
• Next Gen Seats - $2500
• Glossy Obeche Decor - $750 -- This was a no-charge option on my S60...
• Premium Interior & Lighting - $3000 -- Includes items that were base (dash/armrests/lighting) or in tech package (power lift gate) back in '13. Also includes the Alcantara headliner that was only avail on P85s in '13, and Fog lights that were not avail when my car was built...
• Destination and Doc Fee $1200
• Total $78,950
• Note -- this also includes features not avail when I bought -- folding mirrors, lane departure warning, parking sensors, emergency braking, and blind spot warning.

Enabling Autopilot for $2500 takes the price to $80,250 -- less than $200 more than I paid.

So I think the pricing updates on April 1 will shuffle things around a bit and add a few more options (cooled seats?), but leave the base price unchanged in the US.

 

[FlatSix911]

Good analysis - thanks.

 

[whitex]

I think there are two things going on:
For reference, Tesla has kept prices relatively flat while increasing features. I ordered my car in March 2013 -- and I can order an identically equipped car for less (and add Autopilot and multi-coat paint for about the same price).

It seems the entry level Model S stays at similar price with more options added over time, while the top end prices move up. I did the same comparison using my MS history, and the S60 replacement would be cheaper (with more included options), while P85D replacement would cost me more. And that's even before $3K range upgrade that became mandatory when 85KWh battery was discontinued, which shifted mid (90D) and high (P90D) further up already from the base S70.

It makes sense to keep a lower base price until Model 3. If Model 3 was ready today, 70D, 90D, and P100D would be the best choices for streamlined production and software development, while providing good differentiation between the models in performance. Now the question is whether S70 is going away at M3 launch or only once it starts shipping.

 

[smsprague]

My 2 year old S85 would be about $6,500 more right now. $3,000 is the premium interior that is now required to get the auto lift gate which is s must for me.

Granted I would get AWD which I don't care about and a little more range. Could compare a S85 to a 70D but the less range would be an issue in my situation and the more speed of the S90D would not matter, not going to a track.

 

[RobStark]

Why would you come out with a 70 and a 90 just to get rid of them I believe they got rid of the 85 to keep the 90 for quite some time I'm guessing like other posters have said there will be a 70 a 90 and 100

It is not rocket science nor rocket manufacturing to add 5-10 kWh to the battery pack.

Elon has said Model S gets 20 changes per week, although almost all of them very minor. And that capacity would increase from now on(from Fall 2015) an annual average of 5%. Sometimes changes would occur every year sometimes every other year.

 

[Trev Page]

RobS


I think this makes sense. I also think that a moderate price increase is justified and will increase overall value of the Model S across the board. Tesla is in a unique position since they can control some of the preowned market with their new car prices, and since they delve so heavily in their CPO models, and further with their direct sales approach.

Incremental price increase for new Model S as well as larger capacity battery offerings while retaining low end base pricing is something that will increase the value of the preowned model S including a great deal of Tesla's own preowned inventory cars and customer cars as well.

The only downside is customer complaints or reduction in sales due to increase in price, neither of which Tesla is in jeopardy of, IMO, since they are so uniquely positioned in the BEV market, dealer market, and CPO market.

H

The whole removal of CPOs, a bigger battery leak, center console and now price increases is all starting to come together and make sense.

Replace CPOs with "inventory" cars to move those. Add some new options and increase the battery sizes while increasing pricing a bit for updated models. Now they seem more expensive but then reinstate the CPOs for those looking for lower priced cars. Makes sense now.

 

[wdolson]

I read on Teslarati that the 70 KWh for the X has been dropped from design studio. That may be a signal that something is coming with the battery pack changes.

I note the Tesla spokesperson said that prices have gone up in international markets because of the stronger US dollar and only referenced price changes coming. I think Tesla does have a 100 KWh battery planned and they will bump up the 70 to something a bit bigger too. They need to give people the feeling they are getting something for the price increase.

I do disagree with the analyst claiming Tesla needs to distinguish between the Model 3 and S/X. Their base prices will be around $35K, which is huge. Compare that to most car makers. If you just look at the base prices of say Ford which makes many more types of vehicles than Tesla does, the base Ford Fiesta is $14K, a base Taurus is $27K, and the base price of an Expedition is $45K. That's a much wider range in size and capability with a smaller price range. BMW probably has a bit wider range, but the Model S may have to come down in price to keep any sales up at all when the Model 3 hits the market. But by then batteries should be much cheaper and the Model S could come down in price and still be a profitable car.

I agree with others who predict there will be some kind of shuffle in features offered, probably a battery pack size increase which justifies the base price increase, but possibly some features that are now options made standard and some shuffling of the options packages.

The battery sizes offered may be 80 and 100. Tesla hasn't sold many 70D Model Xs and the range on that version is pretty poor. I think they saw the need to bump the base battery pack size to increase interest in the base Model X and the Model S will get the same battery options.

 

[Saghost]

I read on Teslarati that the 70 KWh for the X has been dropped from design studio. That may be a signal that something is coming with the battery pack changes.

Be careful with your language here.

According to the threads here on TMC on the subject, the 70 kWh has been removed from the public facing model X site - but the folks who currently have the design studio open to configure the car can still see it (same thing for the five seat configuration.)

I'm assuming eventually one of those will change - either it'll get added back in to the public facing site or it'll disappear from the design studio - but I'm not really sure which yet.
Walter

 

[Trev Page]

Apparently the 70Kwh battery is back. It was deleted by mistake.