The catastrophe of FSD and erosion of trust in Tesla

[dramsey]

In fall of 2021 Troy had estimated the # of folks who had bought FSD at: about 359,200 total... with ~264,700 in North America, over 88,700 in Europe and just 5,700 in Asia-Pacific

Last word from Tesla, when it was US only, was 60,000 people got in. Canada just added even more in North America.


So that means very roughly 1 in 4 people who bought FSD got into the beta.

I don't think that's "very very" few... though it's obviously not EVERYBODY.

That's kind of the point of a limited access beta.

You don't send it out to everybody until it's good enough to send out to everybody.

I should have been more clear: I meant "very, very few of us who purchased pre-HW3 cars." There was a discussion of this here some months back-- people getting the beta all seemed to have the newer cars. Lots of people with the older cars were getting computer and camera upgrades, but not the beta.

And, as discussed in another post, Musk has never said the FSD beta was "limited access". To the contrary, he said that everyone who met the safety criteria would receive it.

 

[Knightshade]

Upgrading to Autopilot and Full Self-Driving Capability

All customers who bought a Tesla before yesterday’s price decrease will be able to buy the Autopilot or Full Self-Driving capability for half of what those features would normally cost after initial purchase.

web.archive.org

But he doesn't say what the poster claimed he said there.

In fact that post isn't even from Elon, it's "the tesla team"

And it says "Customers who previously purchased Full Self-Driving will receive an invitation to Tesla’s Early Access Program (EAP)."

Which not only isn't FSD beta, we just referenced back to posts from a year before FSDBeta was even a thing that the EAP program had apparently been closed long before FSDBeta became a thing.

 

[dramsey]

Upgrading to Autopilot and Full Self-Driving Capability

All customers who bought a Tesla before yesterday’s price decrease will be able to buy the Autopilot or Full Self-Driving capability for half of what those features would normally cost after initial purchase.

web.archive.org

Nice, thanks! The money quote is:

"Customers who previously purchased Full Self-Driving will receive an invitation to Tesla’s Early Access Program (EAP). EAP members are invited to experience and provide feedback on new features and functionality before they are rolled out to other customers."

I suppose one can argue that, technically, the "Request FSD Beta" button satisfies this promise, but...

 

[Knightshade]

My 2016 requires me to either tap the turn signal lever or pull the cruise control lever, regardless of the confirmation settings. But I'll double check. I'd hate to think this was changed years ago and I missed it, but I suppose it's possible.

More than possible, it's exactly what happened.... was reported fairly widely at the time.

Your Tesla can now change lanes without asking permission

Autopilot is feeling more and more like the future

www.theverge.com

If a driver selects ‘No’ to Require Lane Change Confirmation, lane changes will happen automatically, without requiring a driver to confirm them first.

Sounds about right. I'll try it again and see how it works.

FWIW the change of parking to vision is more recent than the lane change thing-- first reported in refresh S but came to other models by October 2021.

It's way better than the old system. Still not "OMG USE IT ALL THE TIME" but it's at least usable for more than a tech demo.

No, it's actually true. I'm quoting from the order page, which says that one of the things you get when ordering FSD is the full self driving computer.

But it's the same description as used on the order page for JUST FSD.

If you wanna make that a criticism of Teslas web team being lazy- and not offering a different description based on if the listing is for a new car or an older one- that's a fair criticism- but not relevant to the fact this IS a feature of paying for FSD.

Plus- you'll get any future FSD computer needed for free as part of the purchase, so arguably leaving it in all descriptions makes sense.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree here. You listed this as one of the features you get right now when you order FSD, but the feature you get right now isn't very useful.

You can argue how useful it is to you personally.... but you can't argue you get it right now which was the point.

Others have commented on it being very useful. One example given was a guy who often drives on long routes of highways that occasionally spend a mile or two going through a town with stop lights.

Likewise it makes TACC more usable in city driving for longer stretches.

The FSDBeta version is better but the existing wide release one is still useful to varying degrees depending your route/driving.

 

[Daniel in SD]

But he doesn't say what the poster claimed he said there.

In fact that post isn't even from Elon, it's "the tesla team"

And it says "Customers who previously purchased Full Self-Driving will receive an invitation to Tesla’s Early Access Program (EAP)."

Which not only isn't FSD beta, we just referenced back to posts from a year before FSDBeta was even a thing that the EAP program had apparently been closed long before FSDBeta became a thing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1105337924386615296

Plans change. haha.
I would say FSD Beta was a thing when they demoed it at Autonomy Day and EAP existed then (they just didn't add FSD purchasers as planned). I guess what they were actually promising was to add people to EAP but only for features that were already "a thing" (meaning released to the public).

 

[Knightshade]

Plans change. haha.
I would say FSD Beta was a thing when they demoed it at Autonomy Day and EAP existed then (they just didn't add FSD purchasers as planned).

FSDBeta was not what was demoed at autonomy day. They demoed an L3 system that was likely gamed with maps to work well for that specific drive.

The city streets code (what would go on to become the V1 release of BetaFSD) didn't show up until late November 2019... over 6 months later.

And AFAIK they also never released anything with FSDBeta to the EAP folks that existed at the time either.

I guess what they were actually promising was to add people to EAP but only for features that were already "a thing" (meaning released to the public).

Yup- that was my read as well.

Essentially that there'd be a group of folks who got wide-release updates first.

Instead we got the useless "standard" and 'advanced" buttons.

But again all that was well prior to FSDBeta being a thing.

 

[Daniel in SD]

FSDBeta was not what was demoed at autonomy day. They demoed an L3 system that was likely gamed with maps to work well for that specific drive.

Yes, few people understand that there's a separate project called Full Self Driving that was demoed at Autonomy Day and it shouldn't be confused with FSD Beta (or Full Self Driving Capability). If the Early Access Program still existed members would get access to Full Self Driving first making good on Tesla's promise.

 

[Knightshade]

Yes, few people understand that there's a separate project called Full Self Driving that was demoed at Autonomy Day and it shouldn't be confused with FSD Beta (or Full Self Driving Capability). If the Early Access Program still existed members would get access to Full Self Driving first making good on Tesla's promise.

FSDBeta has been misnamed since inception. Again we have clarification of this 2 places- the code itself (where it was called City Streets, not FSDBeta, since it first appeared November 2019- 7 months after autonomy day- which again tells you this was not what was demoed on autonomy day- if the visualization differences weren't enough of a giveaway) and the CA DMV docs-- where again they explain what is called FSDBeta is an explicitly L2 system called City Streets.

But FSDbeta was the popular name and Elon kept using it- hence confused people.

 

[Daniel in SD]

FSDBeta has been misnamed since inception. Again we have clarification of this 2 places- the code itself (where it was called City Streets, not FSDBeta, since it first appeared November 2019- 7 months after autonomy day- which again tells you this was not what was demoed on autonomy day- if the visualization differences weren't enough of a giveaway) and the CA DMV docs-- where again they explain what is called FSDBeta is an explicitly L2 system called City Streets.

But FSDbeta was the popular name and Elon kept using it- hence confused people.

Now that I think about it there were two things shown on Autonomy Day. The demo video as you said was L3 and an early version of Full Self Driving. The version demoed to journalists was L2 and an early version of FSD Beta. Note that the demo was flawless and encompassed ALL of Tesla's autonomous testing in California that year. The performance of Full Self Driving is far beyond what we see with FSD Beta which is why they were able to do it in one take having only tested it in other States and in simulation. Journalists who experienced FSD Beta reported that there were disengagements and overall it sounded like the FSD Beta that we know and love.

 

[Knightshade]

Hence why I say the demo video was using map-gamed special code. They clearly didn't then, and don't now, have anything that can reliably do what that demo did on a "normal" drive.

I mean, it was less dishonest than the 2016 in that they did it all in a single take instead of editing dozens of takes to make it look like one video, but it still wasn't at all representative of a working present-day product.

 

[UCIBtheG]

Plus- you'll get any future FSD computer needed for free as part of the purchase, so arguably leaving it in all descriptions makes sense.

Is there language somewhere as part of the FSD buying process (or anywhere currently) that supports this?

And completely unrelated, but as part of my own search to find that, I came across the information below from this page:

The FSD computer upgrade does enable recording from all cameras with Sentry Mode and DashCam for vehicles previously equipped with Autopilot computer 2.0 or 2.5

Is that correct that with HW 3.0 DashCam records all cameras (including the B-pillars and all three front-facing)? I know I only get 4 camera view recordings with HW 2.5 (one front, rear, and the two blind spots).

 

[daktari]

FSDBeta has been misnamed since inception. Again we have clarification of this 2 places- the code itself (where it was called City Streets, not FSDBeta, since it first appeared November 2019- 7 months after autonomy day- which again tells you this was not what was demoed on autonomy day- if the visualization differences weren't enough of a giveaway) and the CA DMV docs-- where again they explain what is called FSDBeta is an explicitly L2 system called City Streets.

But FSDbeta was the popular name and Elon kept using it- hence confused people.

Are you meaning that FSD of 2017 is now officially dead, and that current FSD is the false name on what is a totally different product, L2 city streets? And that Musk by an accident only talk about the latter product but misname it because if not, customers are confused?

And I thought he used FSD deliberatly all these 5 years to continue selling an "soon there" robotaxi.

"Last year we sold TeslaBeer which is real beer. This year we sell TeslaBeer, same logo and can but more expensive. But it is not beer but brown piss. It says so in the small print on the underside. Our boss will tweet about our previous product though."

 

[Knightshade]

Are you meaning that FSD of 2017 is now officially dead

No, but they haven't sold that product to new customers since ~March 2019.

They still owe it to those customers of course (and I fully expect IF they are ABLE to deliver it on anything remotely near current HW they will also deliver it to post 3/19 buyers--- just that if it turns out they CAN NOT deliver it, only the pre 3/19 folks are owed a refund)

, and that current FSD is the false name on what is a totally different product, L2 city streets?

Since 3/19 the FSD purchase page has been quite clear what you are buying- an explicitly L2 system, all of whose features are already delivered except for L2 City Streets.

And that Musk by an accident only talk about the latter product but misname it because of not, customers are confused?

Aspirationally, Elon still wants to deliver the original FSD product as described in in the pre 3/19 days. It just turns out it's a lot harder to do that than he originally thought.


Had Elon stuck with the internal name (City Streets) for what most are now calling FSDBeta it would've resolved a lot of confusion, but he didn't, so here we are.


As I've mentioned elsewhere my expectations are basically as follows:


City streets will eventually get to wide release. Again this is explicitly an L2 product and always will be.

This completes what is, legally, owed to all buyers of the product sold as FSD since ~March 2019.

From there, Tesla will still be working on developing a more advanced system, with an intent toward delivering what was promised to the pre 3/19 buyers (minimum L4 with a wide ODD- arguably L5).

From there we have a couple of possible outcomes:


A) Tesla is able to develop such a system sometime in the next several years, and with HW requirements it's reasonable possible to retrofit to existing cars (maybe upgraded cams in existing spots, and a driving computer upgrade on existing wiring). In this case everyone who bought FSD regardless of date of purchase gets all that HW free, and the final SW as well.

B) Tesla is able to develop such a system sometime in the next several years, but with HW requirements that make it impossible (or impractical) to retrofit existing cars. In this case I expect pre 3/19 buyers will get compensation (as they're legally owed it) in the form of a refund AND/OR an offer to trade in for a new Tesla whose HW is capable of it, and get FSD transferred for free to that vehicle. For post 3/19 folks they're not legally owed anything in this case- and no way they'll be offered a refund (avoiding that requirement is the fundamental reason for changing the description of FSD back in 2019)-- but Tesla might offer them some one-time-free-transfer option depending how things go.

C) Tesla is unable to develop such a system anytime in the next several years.. This will be a mess. Tesla would still owe (and offer) refunds to the pre 3/19 folks, but there'd be lawsuits anyway from the "I only bought the car at all because of this promise" group. I'd expect post 3/19 buyers to be out of luck, but probably some lawsuits there anyway.

Is there language somewhere as part of the FSD buying process (or anywhere currently) that supports this?

There's quotes from both Elon and Tesla spokespersons (back when they had those) dating all the way back to when HW 2.5 came out, confirming if you bought FSD you'll get any needed HW upgrades to support FSD. Same was repeatedly confirmed when HW3 came along. Same was confirmed again when it turned out the oldest S/X vehicles needed camera upgrades too.

And completely unrelated, but as part of my own search to find that, I came across the information below from this page:


Is that correct that with HW 3.0 DashCam records all cameras (including the B-pillars and all three front-facing)? I know I only get 4 camera view recordings with HW 2.5 (one front, rear, and the two blind spots).

What I believe this is referring to is AP2.5 cars with MCU1 only record I think the front camera.... while cars with MCU2 record 4 (hence mention of needing the infotainment upgrade at your link for MCU1 cars)

 

[daktari]

No, but they haven't sold that product to new customers since ~March 2019.

They still owe it to those customers of course (and I fully expect IF they are ABLE to deliver it on anything remotely near current HW they will also deliver it to post 3/19 buyers--- just that if it turns out they CAN NOT deliver it, only the pre 3/19 folks are owed a refund)




Since 3/19 the FSD purchase page has been quite clear what you are buying- an explicitly L2 system, all of whose features are already delivered except for L2 City Streets.





Aspirationally, Elon still wants to deliver the original FSD product as described in in the pre 3/19 days. It just turns out it's a lot harder to do that than he originally thought.


Had Elon stuck with the internal name (City Streets) for what most are now calling FSDBeta it would've resolved a lot of confusion, but he didn't, so here we are.


As I've mentioned elsewhere my expectations are basically as follows:


City streets will eventually get to wide release. Again this is explicitly an L2 product and always will be.

This completes what is, legally, owed to all buyers of the product sold as FSD since ~March 2019.

From there, Tesla will still be working on developing a more advanced system, with an intent toward delivering what was promised to the pre 3/19 buyers (minimum L4 with a wide ODD- arguably L5).

From there we have a couple of possible outcomes:


A) Tesla is able to develop such a system sometime in the next several years, and with HW requirements it's reasonable possible to retrofit to existing cars (maybe upgraded cams in existing spots, and a driving computer upgrade on existing wiring). In this case everyone who bought FSD regardless of date of purchase gets all that HW free, and the final SW as well.

B) Tesla is able to develop such a system sometime in the next several years, but with HW requirements that make it impossible (or impractical) to retrofit existing cars. In this case I expect pre 3/19 buyers will get compensation (as they're legally owed it) in the form of a refund AND/OR an offer to trade in for a new Tesla whose HW is capable of it, and get FSD transferred for free to that vehicle. For post 3/19 folks they're not legally owed anything in this case- and no way they'll be offered a refund (avoiding that requirement is the fundamental reason for changing the description of FSD back in 2019)-- but Tesla might offer them some one-time-free-transfer option depending how things go.

C) Tesla is unable to develop such a system anytime in the next several years.. This will be a mess. Tesla would still owe (and offer) refunds to the pre 3/19 folks, but there'd be lawsuits anyway from the "I only bought the car at all because of this promise" group. I'd expect post 3/19 buyers to be out of luck, but probably some lawsuits there anyway.






There's quotes from both Elon and Tesla spokespersons (back when they had those) dating all the way back to when HW 2.5 came out, confirming if you bought FSD you'll get any needed HW upgrades to support FSD. Same was repeatedly confirmed when HW3 came along. Same was confirmed again when it turned out the oldest S/X vehicles needed camera upgrades too.




What I believe this is referring to is AP2.5 cars with MCU1 only record I think the front camera.... while cars with MCU2 record 4 (hence mention of needing the infotainment upgrade at your link for MCU1 cars)

Either A, B or C, I think Tesla is in a real bad place regarding "real FSD". There will be a big mess. I guess less than two years until they must deliver FSD to avoid it.

The real problem is, if you are right, the misleading marketing and non aligned ordering text. That is detrimental to credibility for the brand and their CEO.

On the other hand, so many loyal stock holders have become so rich on the stock, that they will defend Tesla like an oligark defends Putin.

 

[_Redshift_]

Either A, B or C, I think Tesla is in a real bad place regarding "real FSD". There will be a big mess. I guess less than two years until they must deliver FSD to avoid it.

The real problem is, if you are right, the misleading marketing and non aligned ordering text. That is detrimental to credibility for the brand and their CEO.

On the other hand, so many loyal stock holders have become so rich on the stock, that they will defend Tesla like an oligark defends Putin.

I am convinced that over 70% of the folks buying the new MY or M3 simply don’t care about quality and reliability. The collective erosion of standards is greased by the holdings in TSLA.

‘As long as I’m making money, I won’t hear any criticism!’

This is how companies get too big to fail. They are given a license by the shareholders to become mediocre and complacent.

 

[EVNow]

FSD Beta is so catastrophic - people are excited to get new releases and there are a lot of people waiting to get in.

What a catastrophe.

 

[Bouba]

My made in China M3 is (so far) well built. and I don’t own any shares I have (so far) no complaints
Still…. I am about to hail a taxi to take me on a $100 ride back to my car…so it would have been great if robotaxi worked
But no complaints so far…and Tesla will have to go a long long long way to be as bad as Volvo

 

[240vPlug]

It's called a BETA for a reason. There are bugs. Full self driving is an incredibly hard thing to achieve and the fact that we are even this far is pretty crazy. If you don't like it, don't use it.

This beta isn't here to drive you from place to place without monitoring, it's to collect data so one day it can do that, it's what you signed up to do when you enrolled.

This. If your in the Beta and it is causing you this much aggravation then leave the beta program. This is far from a finished product and you have to be an extremely safe and attentive driver to get in for a reason. Your helping shape the future of FSD and that can be aggravating. One day it will significantly reduce stresss behind the wheel but while it’s in beta will increase stress more so than simply driving manually.

 

[Knightshade]

I am convinced that over 70% of the folks buying the new MY or M3 simply don’t care about quality and reliability. The collective erosion of standards is greased by the holdings in TSLA.

‘As long as I’m making money, I won’t hear any criticism!’

This is how companies get too big to fail. They are given a license by the shareholders to become mediocre and complacent.

Tesla consistently ranks #1 in owner satisfaction year after year, and is the only major car maker significantly growing share at this point.

If you're unhappy with yours you're very very very much in the minority.

 

[DrDabbles]

FSD Beta is so catastrophic - people are excited to get new releases and there are a lot of people waiting to get in.

What a catastrophe.

They'll disable it soon after trying it. Like so many have.