The catastrophe of FSD and erosion of trust in Tesla

[DocRob]

Yes, but you were comparing FSD Beta to the average driver. Also, defining "average" as the worst driver you see a day doesn't make sense. You should have said FSD Beta when supervised by an above average driver is safer than the average driver if that's what you meant. I think we really don't know that for sure as I would weight extreme collisions much higher when determining safety and I don't think enough miles have been driven on FSD Beta to determine their frequency relative to the average driver.
Anyway, I wouldn't be surprised if FSD Beta is in fact safer than the average driver when supervised by the self selected group of people currently testing it.

Begs the question, what would the accident rate be if all vehicles had mandatory driver supervision features, including steering wheel nags and attention cameras?

 

[Daniel in SD]

Begs the question, what would the accident rate be if all vehicles had mandatory driver supervision features, including steering wheel nags and attention cameras?

Or all the other modern ADAS (advanced driver assistance systems) like automatic emergency braking, forward collision alert, lane departure alert, etc.? It seems possible that the combination of human and machine will be unbeatable. So do machines merely have to drive better than humans alone or do they have to be so good that adding humans is detriment (as Elon has predicted)?
The EU is requiring Driver Monitoring Systems in all new vehicles later this year. It seems like that will generate good data on how well they work.

 

[bradtem]

Or all the other modern ADAS (advanced driver assistance systems) like automatic emergency braking, forward collision alert, lane departure alert, etc.? It seems possible that the combination of human and machine will be unbeatable. So do machines merely have to drive better than humans alone or do they have to be so good that adding humans is detriment (as Elon has predicted)?
The EU is requiring Driver Monitoring Systems in all new vehicles later this year. It seems like that will generate good data on how well they work.

Everybody working in self-driving is keen on making cars that are safer, but they also want the big benefits when cars need no driver at all. The real world-changing benefit comes from robotaxi, cars that can operate empty and come pick you up (and charge and park themselves.) A lesser benefit comes for personal cars, so you can do other things on trips, especially long trips, from work to relax to even sleep.

Yes, obviously if you can make that car safe you can also make a car that trades off with a human driver and is that safe or even safer (though not entirely, there are situations where the combination of human and machine might be worse, particularly handoff situations.)

So everybody is still keen on going beyond driver assist. Driver assist is nice, but not the big goal.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Everybody working in self-driving is keen on making cars that are safer, but they also want the big benefits when cars need no driver at all. The real world-changing benefit comes from robotaxi, cars that can operate empty and come pick you up (and charge and park themselves.) A lesser benefit comes for personal cars, so you can do other things on trips, especially long trips, from work to relax to even sleep.

Yes, obviously if you can make that car safe you can also make a car that trades off with a human driver and is that safe or even safer (though not entirely, there are situations where the combination of human and machine might be worse, particularly handoff situations.)

So everybody is still keen on going beyond driver assist. Driver assist is nice, but not the big goal.

Oh, I know and I would love a driverless vehicles. It's just interesting to think about how the bar may be moving due to all the advancements in active safety. Of course humans are masters of risk compensation so the bar may not move very much.
What are the thoughts in the AV industry about what percentage of collisions will beat at fault?
It's always seemed to me that when human level safety is achieved the vast majority of collisions will be the fault of other drivers. Or perhaps that AVs will get into collisions where they are technically not at fault but are caused by them behaving in non-human ways (I note how often they seem to get rear ended).

 

[Fernand]

YAWN.

Waymo's not helping me in my daily drives. NOA w/ FSD is.

 

[OncomingStorm]

YAWN.

Waymo's not helping me in my daily drives. NOA w/ FSD is.

but you might have to take over once in a great while! its a total unmitigated failure!!! waymo is perfect, just, dont look behind the curtain lol

 

[dramsey]

3) people who paid for FSD, but got nothing [the early buyers who did not even get the beta]

And there are oh so many of us. In 2016, paying $3k for FSD was a no-brainer. It would surely arrive in 12-18 months, as Elon has since told us every 12-18 months.

And yeah, we got free upgrades for our self-driving computers and exterior cameras.

But very, very few of us got the FSD beta. Of course, nobody (in the US) is being added now, so there's that.

 

[Knightshade]

But very, very few of us got the FSD beta.

In fall of 2021 Troy had estimated the # of folks who had bought FSD at: about 359,200 total... with ~264,700 in North America, over 88,700 in Europe and just 5,700 in Asia-Pacific

Last word from Tesla, when it was US only, was 60,000 people got in. Canada just added even more in North America.


So that means very roughly 1 in 4 people who bought FSD got into the beta.

I don't think that's "very very" few... though it's obviously not EVERYBODY.

That's kind of the point of a limited access beta.

You don't send it out to everybody until it's good enough to send out to everybody.

 

[dramsey]

To be clear, the product sold for 12k only promises 7, specific, things.

6 of them you get immediately upon paying for FSD.

Do you, though? Let's go down the list:

1. Navigate on Autopilot.

Yep, this one you get and it works pretty well.

2. Auto lane change.

I think this is cheating, since it's breaking a feature out of NOA and treating it separately. They could just as easily have said "Takes exit nearest your destination" is a separate feature.

Also, it's not really "auto": you must manually approve every "automatic" lane change.

3. Autopark

I have never actually gotten this feature to work. As in, not once. Yes, I've tried. Getting the "P" to show up is like a snipe hunt. This particularly odd considering the number of cars that implement this feature pretty much perfectly, and have for years.

4. Summon

I have about a 20% success rate with summon. It's always a crap shoot as to how far the car will actually get before simply giving up. Typically it gives up in a position that blocks traffic and requires me to run out to it, waving apologies at other drivers. For example, if you're standing at the curb in front of a grocery, you'd expect the car to pull up to the curb. It never does this. It always stops at a 45 degree angle to the curb, typically several feet away, blocking lanes of traffic. Functionally, Summon is useless. It's been months since I tried it so perhaps there have been dramatic improvements...

5. Full Self Driving Computer

Every Tesla has this. It's deceptive to list it as a feature you must pay extra for as part of the FSD package.

6. Traffic light and stop sign control.

This is...a non-feature. "Traffic light...control" means "I will stop on green lights unless I'm right behind a car going through the intersection." And both of these features only work if Autopilot is engaged, which you really shouldn't do on city streets anyway. Right?

So of the six features you get "right away":

• 3-- auto lane change, auto park, and summon-- are not as described or virtually useless as implemented.
• 1-- Full Self Driving Computer-- is standard with every Tesla and shouldn't be listed as an extra feature you get with FSD
• 1-- Traffic Light and Stop Sign control-- is poorly implemented and shouldn't be used anyway!
• 1-- Navigate on Autopilot-- Works pretty well and has for years.

I'd argue that while six features you "get right away" are listed, only one is actually usable.

 

[dramsey]

So that means very roughly 1 in 4 people who bought FSD got into the beta.

I don't think that's "very very" few... though it's obviously not EVERYBODY.

That's kind of the point of a limited access beta.

You don't send it out to everybody until it's good enough to send out to everybody.

Yeah, see, the point here again is "what Elon said".

(moderator note: author interpreted that…) Elon said that everybody who had pre-paid for FSD would automatically be enrolled in the beta.

That didn't happen.

Then when he sprung the "safety score" surprise on us, (moderator note, again author interpreted that…) he said that everyone who scored 100 (then 99, then 98) would get the beta. His specific statement was “If driving behavior is good for seven days, beta access will be granted,”

That didn't happen either.

In fact, a good 30 seconds' worth of Googling is unable to find any time Elon ever described a "limited access" beta. Like so much else about FSD, it's an inference made based on observation.

 

[Knightshade]

Do you, though? Let's go down the list:

1. Navigate on Autopilot.

Yep, this one you get and it works pretty well.

So far so good..

2. Auto lane change.

I think this is cheating, since it's breaking a feature out of NOA and treating it separately. They could just as easily have said "Takes exit nearest your destination" is a separate feature.

Also, it's not really "auto": you must manually approve every "automatic" lane change.

This is simply not true. You can turn confirmation off, and have been able to since at least fall 2018.

3. Autopark

I have never actually gotten this feature to work. As in, not once. Yes, I've tried. Getting the "P" to show up is like a snipe hunt. This particularly odd considering the number of cars that implement this feature pretty much perfectly, and have for years.

Did you last try 2 years ago or something?

It absolutely sucked when it was ultrasonics only, but since going to vision it works pretty well. It's fairly easy to get the P to show up (and no longer requires cars on the sides of the spot, it works with just painted lines)- and it's WAY faster than it used to be... still a bit slower than a human, but not painfully slow like it used to be.

4. Summon

I have about a 20% success rate with summon. It's always a crap shoot as to how far the car will actually get before simply giving up. Typically it gives up in a position that blocks traffic and requires me to run out to it, waving apologies at other drivers. For example, if you're standing at the curb in front of a grocery, you'd expect the car to pull up to the curb. It never does this. It always stops at a 45 degree angle to the curb, typically several feet away, blocking lanes of traffic. Functionally, Summon is useless. It's been months since I tried it so perhaps there have been dramatic improvements...

I've never had it not work at all if that's what you mean by 20%.

I don't use it often in general because it's generally faster to walk to the car than bring the car to me-- but I've used it a number of times at the office (back when that was a thing) to bring the car to me under the covering in front of the front door when it was raining- and it worked quite reliably, so long as I hadn't parked out of its range.

I've not tried bringing to me in a busy costco parking lot or something. But this is probably the "existing" feature I expect to show the most improvement then the BetaFSD stack stuff gets moved into the feature.

But I'd agree it's probably the weakest "general use" feature due to limited range for enhanced summon.

Basic summon (forward/back) works pretty much perfectly. I don't personally have much use for it unless someone parks SUPER close to my drivers door (and it's a life saver the few times that has happened).... but I know folks with really tight garages swear by this feature.

5. Full Self Driving Computer

Every Tesla has this. It's deceptive to list it as a feature you must pay extra for as part of the FSD package.

This, also is flat out false.

NO Tesla built before roughly March 2019 had that computer. So there's years of cars that didn't come with it- that are eligible to buy FSD- that get a free computer upgrade with FSD purchase.

Further- it also means you'll get HW4 if it's needed for FSD in the future.

6. Traffic light and stop sign control.

This is...a non-feature. "Traffic light...control" means "I will stop on green lights unless I'm right behind a car going through the intersection." And both of these features only work if Autopilot is engaged, which you really shouldn't do on city streets anyway. Right?

Again- flat out false

It works with just TACC on, so full AP is not neccesary. Which is fine for city streets.

And the green light thing is already fixed in FSDBeta so it'll be fixed in wide release long term as well.

I'd argue that while six features you "get right away" are listed, only one is actually usable.

But as we just covered, much of your argument is based on things that aren't actually true (or in the case of autopark, hasn't been true for at least a little while now)

 

[Knightshade]

Yeah, see, the point here again is "what Elon said".

Elon said that everybody who had pre-paid for FSD would automatically be enrolled in the beta.

<citation needed>

 

[_Redshift_]

Do you, though? Let's go down the list:

1. Navigate on Autopilot.

Yep, this one you get and it works pretty well.

2. Auto lane change.

I think this is cheating, since it's breaking a feature out of NOA and treating it separately. They could just as easily have said "Takes exit nearest your destination" is a separate feature.

Also, it's not really "auto": you must manually approve every "automatic" lane change.

3. Autopark

I have never actually gotten this feature to work. As in, not once. Yes, I've tried. Getting the "P" to show up is like a snipe hunt. This particularly odd considering the number of cars that implement this feature pretty much perfectly, and have for years.

4. Summon

I have about a 20% success rate with summon. It's always a crap shoot as to how far the car will actually get before simply giving up. Typically it gives up in a position that blocks traffic and requires me to run out to it, waving apologies at other drivers. For example, if you're standing at the curb in front of a grocery, you'd expect the car to pull up to the curb. It never does this. It always stops at a 45 degree angle to the curb, typically several feet away, blocking lanes of traffic. Functionally, Summon is useless. It's been months since I tried it so perhaps there have been dramatic improvements...

5. Full Self Driving Computer

Every Tesla has this. It's deceptive to list it as a feature you must pay extra for as part of the FSD package.

6. Traffic light and stop sign control.

This is...a non-feature. "Traffic light...control" means "I will stop on green lights unless I'm right behind a car going through the intersection." And both of these features only work if Autopilot is engaged, which you really shouldn't do on city streets anyway. Right?

So of the six features you get "right away":

• 3-- auto lane change, auto park, and summon-- are not as described or virtually useless as implemented.
• 1-- Full Self Driving Computer-- is standard with every Tesla and shouldn't be listed as an extra feature you get with FSD
• 1-- Traffic Light and Stop Sign control-- is poorly implemented and shouldn't be used anyway!
• 1-- Navigate on Autopilot-- Works pretty well and has for years.

I'd argue that while six features you "get right away" are listed, only one is actually usable.

I have caught two snipes in the last 3.5 years. I used to hunt for them quite avidly when the car was new. Now, I don’t even bother.

Other than, that, pretty much agreed with everything you said.

 

[Daniel in SD]

<citation needed>

Customers who previously purchased Full Self-Driving will receive an invitation to Tesla’s Early Access Program (EAP). EAP members are invited to experience and provide feedback on new features and functionality before they are rolled out to other customers.

People assumed they would get FSD Beta before it was rolled out to other customers.

 

[Knightshade]

People assumed they would get FSD Beta before it was rolled out to other customers.

Not sure how people having mistaken assumptions is anyones fault but their own?

Tesla needs specific data- so when they add people it will be with that in mind. (I feel like this, specifically has been explained in some detail multiple times now?)

"drives significant # of miles under conditions we need more data on" would be a reason to add someone to the beta

Or as recently shown "drives in another country we haven't tested the beta in yet" is another obvious one.

"Bought FSD earlier than someone else" would not.

I guess if you wanted to use that as a tie breaker- sure, go ahead.

But Tesla doesn't need yet another "typical dude in the bay area" worth of data at this point- which is a reasonably high % of the earliest adopters unfortunately.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Not sure how people having mistaken assumptions is anyones fault but their own?

In their defense you also thought they'd be testing FSD stuff in the Early Access Program.

Then it's weird nobody told the CEO of the company who just mentioned not only does it exist, they'll be testing FSD stuff shortly (and had previously mentioned same on the October investor call)

 

[Knightshade]

In their defense you also thought they'd be testing FSD stuff in the Early Access Program.

That's from 2019.

Tesla never ended up releasing any FSD city streets "stuff" to anybody that year- they did release enhanced summon of course, which for post 3/19 buyers is "fsd stuff" and it DID go to EAP first, then to everyone.

FSDBeta didn't appear until late 2020.

 

[dramsey]

This is simply not true. You can turn confirmation off, and have been able to since at least fall 2018.

My 2016 requires me to either tap the turn signal lever or pull the cruise control lever, regardless of the confirmation settings. But I'll double check. I'd hate to think this was changed years ago and I missed it, but I suppose it's possible.

Did you last try [auto park] 2 years ago or something?

Sounds about right. I'll try it again and see how it works.

I've never had [Summon] not work at all if that's what you mean by 20%.

No. What I meant by "20%" is "20% of the time the car will respond in a reasonable manner, i.e. not stop 20 feet away, at an angle, blocking traffic, requiring you to run out to it."

I try this at least a few times a month since it's a (potentially) really cool feature. I haven't as yet managed to discern the types of parking lots/situations it can handle reliably, as its behavior seems to vary greatly for similar circumstances

This [my assertion that every Tesla comes with the full self driving computer], also is flat out false.

No, it's actually true. I'm quoting from the order page, which says that one of the things you get when ordering FSD is the full self driving computer. Yes, older cars such as mine were retrofitted for free, which is ironic since I was told when I bought the car that it had "all the necessary hardware" for full self driving.

But as you note, the HW3 computer has been in every Tesla for years. So listing it as a separate features of FSD on the order page for a new car is, I dunno, deceptive? Because if it's a feature you get by ordering FSD, as Tesla says, doesn't that imply that you don't get it if you don't order FSD?

Again [my assertion that traffic light and stop sign recognition is useless]- flat out false

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree here. You listed this as one of the features you get right now when you order FSD, but the feature you get right now isn't very useful. Saying the green light issue is addressed in the FSD beta is a separate issue, since we're talking about the features you said people got now.

But as we just covered, much of your argument is based on things that aren't actually true (or in the case of autopark, hasn't been true for at least a little while now)

I'm willing to double check my auto lane change settings, and I suppose people's experience with Summon will vary widely, but I stand by the remainder of my points.

 

[dramsey]

<citation needed>

That's entirely reasonable, and I regret my Google-fu skills are not up to the task. I clearly remember him saying this, but every variation of "Elon promises customers who bought FSD will automatically be enrolled in beta" returns millions of results, going back years, and I can't find the assertion I remember. Perhaps someone else here can.

 

[Daniel in SD]

That's entirely reasonable, and I regret my Google-fu skills are not up to the task. I clearly remember him saying this, but every variation of "Elon promises customers who bought FSD will automatically be enrolled in beta" returns millions of results, going back years, and I can't find the assertion I remember. Perhaps someone else here can.

Upgrading to Autopilot and Full Self-Driving Capability

All customers who bought a Tesla before yesterday’s price decrease will be able to buy the Autopilot or Full Self-Driving capability for half of what those features would normally cost after initial purchase.

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