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The demise of the OEMs

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Renault & Geely combining/separating out ICE engine factories. Investment from Saudi Aramco. Could change ICE market. What I found most interesting and relates to Tesla is that the video says that at about 20% EV market share, ICE starts becoming unprofitable. That message isn't as widely known as it will be soon & that should have an effect on $TSLA sentiment

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not only will Renault when Gili buy the
2:29
power trains but so will their Partners
2:32
including Volvo Nissan and Mitsubishi
2:34
however the plan also includes adding
2:37
more partners and supplying engines and
2:39
Transmissions to other third-party car
2:42
brands gas and oil giant aramco says it
2:45
wants to invest in the joint venture and
2:48
we expect more in fact we think we're
2:51
going to see a lot more of this as ice
2:53
sales decline the factories that make
2:56
them will start to become unprofitable
2:59
the crossover point is going to be when
3:01
EVS hit about 20 market share and that's
3:05
going to trigger a lot more
3:06
consolidation in the powertrain business
 
VW troubles are increasing, they’re now suspending all investments bar the most essential.

The CEO’s own words: ‘last wake up call’

The speech & its reporting are obviously NOT saying that VW EVs have trouble selling, but that's the truth. ID3 is not compelling, prices seem high, software faults, silly switches for back windows etc that are neither Tesla simple nor old-style.

If I was VW.... investigate Google Android Automotive that's used in other cars(with/without "GAS" - Android Automotive - Wikipedia), However, I suspect that whatever VW does, they can't be competitive on price long term without major, unpalatable, maybe unrealisable changes.

Tesla is lumped in (in the article) but I see little evidence for that & Tesla have so many new markets they can serve. Turkey recently (still no accurate sales figures) and Malaysia opening up around 20th July. I wouldn't be surprised if Indonesia is soon. Turkey is Left-Hand Drive from Berlin (Model Y) & Malaysia/Indonesia/Thailand are Right-Hand Drive from China.

It has occurred to me that demand in Thailand and especially launch demand in Malaysia has drawn down Right-Hand Drive supply for UK & Eire & other RHD markets in Rest of Europe (island states, I believe). UK being the most reported on, but UK has its own economic/political/strikes concerns that are probably affecting Tesla. Hard to unentangle various factors.

In the UK, there's also a huge negative mainstream media FUD* push regarding EV demand/residuals. This isn't as wide-scale as reported, but is based largely on Model 3 resale prices having dropped rapidly from higher than original new prices to much lower ones as used car (ex-lease? replacing with Model Y) inventory increased & availability of Model Y began. I think this is holding back a mainstream-media consuming conservative used market in UK. Why every Prius "taxi" (private hire/ride-share) driver doesn't swap to a Model 3 is beyond me. Could be that many live in terraced houses or are just not aware/conservative in what they are used to. Could also be that many/some cars are hired and not owned.

I also believe that launch demand in Turkey for Made in Germany Model Y has been significant, but hindered by a Turkish port IT system failing - leaving cars & other goods stuck in port. Not ideal in a country with high inflation, rapidly falling currency.

*Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt
 
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Tesla fan here, but also for the in-country manuf such as Merc for those in EU
Here in USA, I’m also rooting for GM and the new Blazer from Mexico replacing the Bolt
The Bolt stays on sale until Dec
Blazer shows up to dealers Aug, 30 days away
Let’s see where the price come in vs Bolt with all tax incentives included and the Blazer EV could be a huge win for GM and USA

Crossing my fingers
 
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Not bad looking
Like that it’s different looking than the EX30
Btw EX30 arrives 2025….?!?!
1689174480071.png
 
It would seem that ~1,400/quarter is all the US market can absorb at the prices they are selling. If I recall correctly they started shipping vehicles overseas in 22Q4, but now they say they have "material" shipments in 23Q2. Were the prior shipments not "material"? (Just press/demo cars?)

Will Saudi Arabia be able to absorb their production? (It better be able to, since they have already started building a factory there, haven't they?)

My guess is that before bankruptcy they would shut down all operations in the US, and move everything to their factory in Saudi Arabia. (They are ~70% owned by them after all.)

But I think more telling than the P&D numbers will be the financials, have they been able to reduce COGS meaningfully? (My guess is not, given this quarter had the lowest production volume in the last year.)
 
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The Cheapest China EV after current tariffs brought to USA, not including shipping or sales tax, is estimated at $14K USD
The M2 after incentives is est at $16K USD
The Blazer EV is not targeting this cheapest target as GM CEO states rhe Bolt will be reborn 2025+ at this level
As to address the market with an SUV cheaper than the MYAWD or MYRWD GM has this a Blazer EV
This will be successful like rhe M3RWD if the price is $35K USD, at its lowest trim level, bef incentives and $25K after
Will be great to see GM get in front of Hyundai in the USA again
Competition is heating up
 
Norway have more (probably) but I'm in the UK, we have 160 available models (includes variants) with another 29 due soon, loads of different price points/sizes. Still Model Y is by far the best seller

Most viewed:- MG4 (selling well, so worth checking against Blazer specs?), Teslas (3 & Y) and a Kia (older model, revamped, but not one of the newer releases). Prices won't compare to USA as taxes & fees are included. Plus all of these are imported - if import taxed - probably at 5% (guess/half-remembered).


1689182168777.png


My emphasis in Red Bold Italic - UK: Plug-In Car Sales Reached 25% Market Share In June 2023

Top models​

The Tesla Model Y once again achieved a spectacular success in the UK, becoming the most registered new car in June, with 5,539 registrations.

This allowed to strengthen in the year-to-date standing, moving from seventh position to fourth position (19,551 units), just behind the third Nissan Qashqai (19,983).

No other stand-alone all-electric model was able to get into top 10.

external_image

 
The old "negative margin" plus low demand combo:
Fortunately they can't make very many, otherwise they would in real trouble. And this is the one we wanted to survive and indeed thought had a chance...

Only Mercedes seem to be on the right trajectory. But that is early days - inferior product for those that want something non Tesla.
Matt Smith doesn't understand what's behind Rivian's COGS. To be fair, the company doesn't make it easy since that would involve being honest about their own screw-ups.
 
Are there any national UK origin owned vehicle manuf besides rolls, don’t know who owns, left?
Tata owns Land Rover
China owns MG name
Austin Martin went somewhere
Sad to see James Bond does not drive a UK car any longer?
 
Are there any national UK origin owned vehicle manuf besides rolls, don’t know who owns, left?
Tata owns Land Rover
China owns MG name
Austin Martin went somewhere
Sad to see James Bond does not drive a UK car any longer?
Rolls-Royce Motor Cars Limited is a British luxury automobile maker which has operated as a wholly owned subsidiary of BMW AG since 2003

I think the only UK-owned and UK-made is Morgan.
 
Rolls-Royce Motor Cars Limited is a British luxury automobile maker which has operated as a wholly owned subsidiary of BMW AG since 2003

I think the only UK-owned and UK-made is Morgan.
Morgan of course having more advanced elements than even Tesla - Tesla have to cast chassis & stamp/weld bodies, Morgan grow their frames

 
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Rolls-Royce Motor Cars Limited is a British luxury automobile maker which has operated as a wholly owned subsidiary of BMW AG since 2003

I think the only UK-owned and UK-made is Morgan.
To add to this, volume producers were probably Japanese cars, Jaguar Land Rover (Tata). Honda closed down, Ford just makes bits (engines/gearboxes?), Vauxhall (Opel) might make components, maybe vans. Toyota & Nissan are probably biggest. My guess is that they'll leave soon.

New ICE-powertrain joint adventure from Renault-Geely-Saudi Aramco is meant to be headquartered in UK. So I wouldn't expect that to last, just enough to milk some subsidies from a terrified bunch of inept politicians clutching at "good news" straws.

Tata, Nissan got money & BritishVolt nearly did. Possible that Toyota, Vauxhall, others (especially component suppliers) did too. Vauxhall is Stellantis now, used to be part of GM years ago.

 
Renault leader says EU auto manuf have failed and it’s too late

Imagine this happens in rhe USA
What a nightmare …..
:(
 
Write to your congressman
Need +17% added to the tariff on China vehicle imports to level rhe playing field
Also consider vehicles are transport infrastructure, like rhe 5G equipment from China, maybe we just block, could hurt Tesla in china
No paranoia but every chinese vehicle could end up being a data gathering, video, sound, movement tracking device for rhe chinese govt
Crazy how the future could get
Protect USA!!!!
 
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