The demise of the OEMs

[UkNorthampton]

Write to your congressman
Need +17% added to the tariff on China vehicle imports to level rhe playing field
Also consider vehicles are transport infrastructure, like rhe 5G equipment from China, maybe we just block, could hurt Tesla in china
No paranoia but every chinese vehicle could end up being a data gathering, video, sound, movement tracking device for rhe chinese govt
Crazy how the future could get
Protect USA!!!!

Won't help GM. Chinese manufacturers will just produce in Mexico like Ford & GM. GM almost dead in Rest of The World, maybe Brazil, Korea - but independently run, maybe niche.

The 5G nonsense was (in my opinion) political theatre engineered by a few USA manufacturers & lobbyists. No substance. Just harmed consumers in countries that bought it for political reasons.

Tesla is a USA company, more sense for USA to support successful companies rather than legacy companies which will die anyway (in present form) due to bad management & structural reasons.

What USA needs is less pollution, will lead to less brain/respiratory damage, higher IQ & better health.

If countries need to take action, go against the polluters such as Opec & Russia - especially dictatorships. Much greater threat to citizens, health, political influence & corruption.

 

[kpanda17]

Geely is in South Carolina building Volvos
They are here

Volvo expands U.S. electrified vehicle production in South Carolina with new $118 million investment

Volvo Cars will produce the Polestar 3 battery electric vehicle at its South Carolina plant under contract for Polestar Cars.

www.wistv.com

Do you/EU have regrets now seeing your automotive industry being destroyed? Feels like USAs future

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679935715855986688

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680879249052561408

Even Mercedes..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680879160821178368

 

[kpanda17]

BYD, Geely and others are going after the high end market as well threatening BMW, Audi, and Merc

 

[Dikkie Dik]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680879249052561408

Even Mercedes..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680879160821178368

Here’s an excellent summary, long thread

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680873817042833408

 

[Dikkie Dik]

And an interesting background story on the de-industrialisation of Germany and Europe as a whole and the destabilising effect it (might have) has.

Europe’s economic engine is stalling: Germany deindustrializes

The decline of the Continent’s largest economy will send shudders across the EU’s already polarized political landscape.

www.politico.eu

 

[kpanda17]

Unfortunately for EU but lucky for USA, we can watch and prepare for the live threats to EU before hitting the USA. Think we felt the supply chain shock of rhe pandemic and USA manuf is making a comeback. Building up our in country infrastructure, grid, manuf is very important but also financial and cyber protection of USA.
Specifically for our auto and industrial vehicle businesses, we need +17% tariff on China vehicles and trucks. China is already here and only held to 25% tariff while, as stated we are hit with 42%. China can come in by way of manuf in Mexico, complying with IRA, but we are there as well. I am talking about what EU is experiencing, importing China manuf vehicles. Right now without +17%, China can undercut and best us here as they are beating EU, Watch VW sink.
Pressure Congress for +17% on chinese vehicle imports into USA.

 

[Buckminster]

Can't help but to think we are witnessing the death knell of the ICE age....
The masses want EV, they just don't know it yet (drive it to believe it), price them accordingly - blast off!....
The foot dragging legacy can only shoot themselves in their feet for so long, cutting prices for them is not a plan - more of a last gasp.

I've only been investing in TSLA for a decade so hoping someone can help me out on this. If margins start negative and then you significantly cut prices, how does that affect margins? Do they go positive? Asking for a friend.

Elon commenting on Lightning price cut
"The Ford Lightning is a good vehicle, just somewhat expensive, especially given the high interest rates these days for any kind of loan"

 

[replicant]

Stellantis Sees Severe Risk of Chip Shortage on Demand Surge

Stellantis NV expects semiconductor shortages to reemerge on growing demand for electric vehicles at a time of increased geopolitical risk, making the current respite short-lived.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681643823951233024

 

[Doggydogworld]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681643823951233024

My prediction, that VW would meet their 95g quota of ~20% plug-in EVs, continues to hold true. The next leg up is ~30% in 2025.
Other legacy OEMs are doing the same, except possibly BMW and Mercedes who seem to be going a bit above the quota.

 

[kpanda17]

There is definitely hope as Jeep is rhe second most searched after Tesla in red:

 

[Buckminster]

7. This means that the real determinant of Tesla price is - wierdly - the extent to which there are competitive BEVs available from other automakers. The market will obviously take as many credible BEVs as the industry can produce, provided they aren't outrageously priced. So if Tesla has limited competition then Tesla can pretty much hold its own price up to a reasonable extent, with the result that Tesla obtains a (now) 18% or so GM%. And since (at the moment) the competitor BEVs are not as compelling a customer proposition (and their CoGS are higher) then the competitor OEMs are forced into low or negative GM%. It is really difficult to get those numbers, but let's just posit they range from +5% GM to -5% GM with an average BEV competitor of 0% GM. This is why demand for BEVs is collapsing at VAG etc, and they are in a cash crisis. The implication is that Tesla is probably near the bottom on pricing for the time being. Only if the competitors start bringing better products to market in a manner that is financially sustainable for them, will Tesla need to reduce prices. Of course that will happen, and so there may be further Tesla price reductions. But hopefully by then Tesla may have been able to make further CoGS reductions, and obtained further scale benefits, and so stay ahead of the game. But note - in an odd way - given that Tesla prizes capacity expansion above all else, then it is competitor products that now determine Tesla GM% and that is a new realisation for me.

 

[Knightshade]

Hey remember when Toyotas first BEV had the wheels falling off?

Which seemed weird because you'd think they'd maybe screw up the new EV parts but not legacy things like... wheels?

Their second BEV apparently has the rear doors fail and can fly open while driving.

Toyota is recalling over 12K electric bZ3 sedans in China for defective door handles

Toyota’s joint venture in China, FAW-Toyota, issued a recall plan for its electric sedan in China. The recall affects over...

electrek.co

 

[Dikkie Dik]

The numbers are self explanatory

https://twitter.com/x/status/1682815006402924544

First graph ‘rückwärtsgang’ = reverse gear, = ‘german car industry in decline’. Second graph ‘verbrenner’ = ICE.

 

[Buckminster]

Getting conflicted on this topic these days. Do I want their demise or not?

It's like taking candy from a baby. It's naughty but it kinda tastes good.

 

[Dikkie Dik]

Getting conflicted on this topic these days. Do I want their demise or not?

Me too. The demise is going so fast there is a risk it might destabilise the German and European economy. Couple that with the rise of far-right climate-change denying parties and we’re in for some rough times.

 

[kpanda17]

We don’t want legacy to fail
Some great little people will be affected
We want legacy auto as ev manuf to wake up
Of they don’t, China will dominate globally

 

[Doggydogworld]

The numbers are self explanatory

https://twitter.com/x/status/1682815006402924544

View attachment 958770View attachment 958771View attachment 958772

First graph ‘rückwärtsgang’ = reverse gear, = ‘german car industry in decline’. Second graph ‘verbrenner’ = ICE.

These graphs are dubious. Mercedes sold 1.02m cars in 1H23. That's down from 1.17m per half in 2019 (2.34m full year). No company wants to decline, but a 13% drop is a far cry from the 31% shown in the bar graph. Maybe Mercedes moved some production out of Europe to lower cost locations? Just like a certain EV maker which used to produce exclusively in high-cost California and now makes the majority of their cars in China?

The "Osborne" graph is a joke. "Car" sales dropped dramatically in 2020, which had nothing to do with EVs or S Curves, then rose gradually since.

Global car sales 2019-2023 | Statista

Global car sales fluctuated over the past years amid disruptions in the industry. In 2023, car sales worldwide grew past pre-pandemic levels.

www.statista.com

Furthermore, these sub-70m numbers are for "cars". The overwhelming majority of vehicles sold in the US now are "light trucks". Various sites include or exclude some or all light truck sales in their data. With more people buying SUVs, "car" sales can decline even as vehicle sales hold steady. This site shows US "car" sales were less than 3m in 2022 (below Japan!), vs. almost 8m in 2005. Actual US light vehicle sales were ~13.75m in supply-constrained 2022 and trending around 15.5m this year.

Finally, if you had to pick one OEM whose demise was guaranteed by the EV revolution, it would have to be Toyota, right? I mean, they completely missed the boat, selling almost zero BEVs. And the few they have sold are plagued by wheels that fall off and doors that open while driving. Management is so clueless they still talk about hydrogen!

So how on earth did laughingstock Toyota sell 10.5m vehicles in 2022? That's only 3% below their all-time high. And YTD May 2023 sales are up 4.8%, hinting at a new all-time record this year. Can you explain that, Mr. Osborne?