The demise of the OEMs

[Dikkie Dik]

These graphs are dubious. Mercedes sold 1.02m cars in 1H23

These are the production numbers of Q1-23, not sales . We know that VAG is throttling production down for instance and has a lot of inventory that they’re selling since backlog was filled and new orders are drying up.

The "Osborne" graph is a joke

Okay. I think people are postponing buying a new car and if they are buying they’re not buying an ICE, and a great deal of people are buying non-European namely Chinese and Tesla’s.

The overwhelming majority of vehicles sold in the US

These graphs are about German OEM’s, not American truck builders.

So how on earth did laughingstock Toyota sell 10.5m vehicles in 2022? That's only 3% below their all-time high. And YTD May 2023 sales are up 4.8%, hinting at a new all-time record this year. Can you explain that, Mr. Osborne?

My name is not mr Osborne but I’ll try to find an explanation: Toyota is in a different market segment and a different market than these German OEM’s. Mainly selling cheap cars in in a lot of markets with no or very little BEV presence, South America, Asia and Africa.

There was also a very large backlog, so it could be just
filling that for a large part. Iirc Toyota is already shuttering production in some factories, so we’ll see what happens.

 

[Buckminster]

Barra on CNBC. To be perfectly honest it's a pretty tough interview. Between UAW and BEV ramp issues, it reads like her back is against the wall. He even asked her if she might be due to leave GM. FYI they decided to not discontinue the Bolt EV/EUV after all. (has saved their ass on BEV sales numbers) Not explicitly clear if it will get NACS.

They said they made 50K EV for the first half but they did not sell anywhere near 50K.

They did admit they are behind with Ultium. They blamed it on the supplier that set up the automation for battery pack assembly.

Bolt will likely be about 30-40K of the 100K for the second half of the year. Which means they need to go from 2-3K on Ultium to 60-70K for the second half of the year. 3000% increase.....let see.

 

[kpanda17]

If GM stays the current course, which is not a rock star course, but a game of inches
Slow and steady conversion to EV progress
The union wont see great success and wont have a good bargaining chip for more
They have skin on rhe game to help GM survive

Look at Lordstown the old Chevy Cruise plant and then Lordstown Motors Pickup truck disaster finishing with bankruptcy

The union has to work WITH the legacy auto makers

 

[Doggydogworld]

Bolt is still being discontinued - the factory will switch over to Silverado EVs late this year. There will be a new Ultium vehicle named Bolt. We don't know anything about it, just that it will come to market faster than their typical new model (so less than 10 years, ha). It may use a lot of Bolt tooling, just in a different factory. Or it could be a Trax EV with a Bolt badge. Or.... use your imagination.

I think they're "rounding up" to get 50k EVs produced in H1.

 

[kpanda17]

Due to the price and lack of vehicles at this price readily available:

Think the Bolt is relevant now, new Bolt would be relevant now, but a new Bolt in 2025+
Would NOT be relevant for we will have

M2:

Wow!!

 

[replicant]

Stellantis' H1 profits beat forecasts as supply issues ease

Stellantis will have to accelerate a cost cutting to keep profitability strong in a more challenging pricing environment, CEO Carlos Tavares said.

europe.autonews.com

The automaker's first-half margin on adjusted EBIT slipped to 14.4 percent from 14.5 percent a year earlier, beating the 12.2 percent predicted by analysts.

CEO Carlos Tavares said Stellantis's margin performance was better than those of Tesla and General Motors, which he said posted margins of 10.5 percent and 8.3 percent respectively.

The automaker's first-half shipments were 1.48 million vehicles, compared with 1.36 million in the first half of 2022, as logistics difficulties eased.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1684235348111417345

 

[RobStark]

CEO Carlos Tavares said Stellantis's margin performance was better than those of Tesla and General Motors, which he said posted margins of 10.5 percent and 8.3 percent respectively.

Stellantis is doing this with filling dealers with high trim levels and lowering market share not with better cost control.

GM has increased market share a bit and Tesla a lot.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1684476858090262528

 

[kpanda17]

Tavares would def loose in a debate with Elon
his margins are coming from legacy ICE, dying, will decline
Elons margins are pure BEV, leveling or up/down/up while:
expanding Tesla Energy, megapacks
bringing one or two new factories build/online, mex and India
Expanding two factories to full production, Tex and Berlin
Perfecting gen 3 of his 4680s, into top trims of CT
expanding battery manuf alliances, Samsung, CATL
starting their own refining, giga Corpus Christie, Texas
launching two vehicle refreshes, highland and Jupiter
Launching two planned largest selling new vehicles, CT and M2
advancing adj tech to the vehicles, wireless charging
adding robot labor to expand manufacturing, Optimus
etc

no one has such a mind for juggling, future planning, 4D chess

 

[Doggydogworld]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1684476858090262528

VW actually said 9.0-9.5m, Alex is shading the truth.

BEV order backlog of 200k vehicles which is down by 50% from 300k end of 2022

He's also bad at arithmetic

He's right about VW's China problem, though. ID3/4 flopped horribly there. Diess forecast almost 400k in 2020, IIRC. They're still ~100k/year. China's market is >30% EVs now. VW Group sales there are <5% BEVs plus a few PHEVs. They completely missed the boat. And unlike Toyota, they actually made a serious effort.

Alex's BEV-only chart minimizes the gap between BYD and Tesla and excludes fast-growing premium PHEV maker Li Auto. Li now outsells media darling Nio 3:1 and is well ahead of VW Group in EV sales. Together BYD and Li sell almost 3/4ths of China's PHEVs, and both have grown like crazy the past three years. A missed opportunity for Toyota and the Europeans, who all have good PHEV technology.

 

[adiggs]

I figure that this is one of the way that the demise of the OEMs will manifest in the world:

Ford slows EV ramp as Q2 commercial vehicle profit booms

By Joseph White, Paul Lienert and Nathan Gomes (Reuters) -Ford Motor Chief Executive Jim Farley on Thursday outlined a significant change in the automaker's product strategy, slowing the ramp-up of money-losing EVs, shifting investment to

www.oann.com

Ford is losing a lot of money in their brand new EV business, while making a lot in their commercial business. It seems like they can milk the money train a bit longer with gas/electric hybrids, so that is what they'll be focusing their investment. Reading between the lines, I see them thinking they can build up the supply chain and company expertise in electrics while making enough money to keep the business interesting, and the lights on, as long as those hybrids will continue generating profits to pay for actual EVs.

On the pro side - Ford is at least breaking out their EV financials so we can see how they're progressing. Most other companies aren't doing that (yet?).

On the con side, it's obvious that ramping these things is proving more difficult than they thought. Now they're projecting a 600k run rate for next year instead of this year, and my own guess is that will get moved out at least 1 more year before they get there.

The duck curve (drop in demand for gas vehicles that hasn't yet been offset by new EV purchases) is coming for them. Maybe they're thinking that with this investment strategy they can surf into the duck curve with enough momentum to ride through the trough, and survive to see the other side. After all, hybrids are like EVs, right?

My thinking is that anywhere they are spending more than trivial $$ (keep the lights on, body styling kind of stuff) on improving and refreshing current gas / diesel business, is wasted investment. It'll be apparent that it is stranded investment well before 2030.

 

[kpanda17]

A few months back a person told me they just bought a brand new Toyota Venza Hybrid
He was proud
I burst his bubble asking why?
Then delicately told him about Tesla
He was dumbfounded
No EV knowledge

The IRA should have had online and TV educational PSAs
A big miss

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1685014370353295361

 

[petit_bateau]

BYD india

Exclusive: BYD tells India partner it wants to drop $1 billion EV investment plan, sources say

China's BYD has told its India joint-venture partner it would shelve plans for a new $1-billion investment to build electric cars after its investment proposal faced scrutiny from New Delhi, two people with knowledge of the discussions said.

www.reuters.com

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1685039525217853442

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686020399144857601

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686078879390388224

 

[hydro]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686078879390388224

hi, thanks for the links. Too bad I do not have a Twitter account. Do you know if there is a way to view without such an account? (In the S, I can view it but not on my Windows 8.1 (to match our 2013 S :_))

 

[Buckminster]

hi, thanks for the links. Too bad I do not have a Twitter account. Do you know if there is a way to view without such an account? (In the S, I can view it but not on my Windows 8.1 (to match our 2013 S :_))

My links are the least of what you are missing out on. Do it.