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The demise of the OEMs
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
Doggydogworld
Active Member
I take that part back. I thought it was obvious, but apparently not.
There you go again. Your fake math shows 32 hours of pay for 32 hours of work. That's not the deal. The UAW very clearly demands 40 hours of pay for 32 hours of work, with OT for anything more. So let's do the math correctly:Now that you mention it though your claim is also factually wrong.
$47.14 an hour, in order to make 120-132k a year, would require working 2545 to 2800 hours a year- or 49-54 hours a week every week with 0 time off
So even when you move goalposts you can't even move them to the correct place
Even worse- ANOTHER of the demands is a 32 hour work week at that rate of pay.
Which for the math challenged would be (again assuming no unpaid time off) $78,440.96 a year.
Bit far off from the 120-132k you claimed.
32 hour per week worker: 40 * 47.14 * 52 weeks = 98k per year
40 hour per week worker: 40 * 47.14 of straight time + 8 * 47.14 * 1.5 of time-and-a-half "overtime" = 132k per year
Feel free to argue 98k (plus lavish benefits) for part time unskilled work and 132k for full time is underpaid. But use honest numbers, for a change.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Ford's other battery plants are proceeding. The Michigan plant is probably DOA -- too political. The right is irate over CATL's involvement, the left demands it be a low-productivity UAW shop.
Ford in general has enough inventory to withstand a 6-8 week strike. But Lightning is an exception. I think the strike will soon hit Q4 sales.
Regarding Jeep PHEVs, I've seen stories and figures like these:
The Jeep Wrangler 4xe Was America's Best-Selling Plug-In Hybrid in 2022
Whether because of a supply-constrained year or a sea change, electrified Jeeps were more popular in 2022.
www.thedrive.com
Jeep Wrangler 4xe, top-selling PHEV, gets a price cut for 2024
The Wrangler 4xe outsells other plug-in hybrids, including the Toyota RAV4 Prime, is eligible for a $3,750 EV tax credit, and will at the base level be even more affordable for 2024.
US: Stellantis PHEV Sales Surged To New Record In Q2 2023
In Q2 2023, Stellantis PHEV sales in the US amounted to 36,473 units, which is 144% more than a year ago, and another new quarterly record.
insideevs.com
OT: Toyota, LG Energy Solution sign $3 billion battery supply deal in U.S. EV push
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In the usa from a vertical integration standpoint, in this case maybe lack of, who is most like Neo?
Seems Tesla and BYD have nailed vertical integration or no middle man in cost for the components of batteries, body panels, castings, etc.
Is vertical integration the only way to be profitable on a normal scale vs Fisker that has low profits due to outsourcing manufacturing?
Examples of profit or losses per vehicle:
Ford EVs losses
GM EVs assume losses
Rivian losses
Lucid losses
Neo losses
MB assume losses
VW assume losses
BMW very interesting, guess is losses
Fisker low profits
Tesla mid to good profits (considering they have other break even or expansions at loss, Semi, Supercharging, Optimus, new factories, etc, it’s amazing)
BYD good profits
If vertical integration is the only way to be profitable on a normal scale, what are these manufacturers going to do?
They need to make difficult business decisions. Their shareholders won't let them but that is what is needed.
Firstly they cannot compete with Tesla. Finding niches is the only way at least to start.
Haha, Rivian are in the niche already - the best niche. They have different problems such as costs and not being a known player.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I haven't looked at NIOs financials, but this sounds an awful lot like the FUD tossed Tesla's way 5-10 years back. Take the reported GAAP loss, divide by cars sold, and *poof* the company is pouring down the drain -- the more they make, the more that goes down the drain.
Except of course that is a grossly misreading of financials (at least for Tesla, 5-10 years back when we had to deal with it). I don't know about NIO - all I know is that the linked tweet looks, at first glance, like FUD rather than useful information.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Full confession - the 32 hour math is correct but I screwed up the 40 hour math. There are two ways to calculate the 8 hours of "overtime":
1. Time and a half applied to the stated hourly rate of 47.14
2. Time and a half applied to the effective hourly rate of 47.14 * (40/32)
I don't know which the UAW uses. The first method gives 127.5k per year. I showed the equation for that method, but mistakenly put in a number from earlier when I'd used the second method.
Not sure you are correct
F150 buyer will consider Lightening, don’t think Rivian, the R1T might have lost its niche
R1S potential buyer would consider the EV9 and Escalade/Tahoe EVs, don’t think the R1S really owned its temp niche
Think Rivian is in real trouble for even at the high end, the Land Rover EV and potentially Lucid SUV are coming
Rivian is in a strange place, not mid or low end and not high end enough, no niche
Think Lucid has high end niche
GM niche is American but challenged
Ford same
Stellantis people think it’s American and therefore a niche but seriously challenged
Korean manuf need NA factories in order to get IRA money, their niche is mid to low end, one of the strongest Tesla contenders
China niche is cheapest EVs, hopefully held back by an additional 17% tariff
Volvo/Polestar/Geely like Korea manuf need NA factories for IRA funds
All of the Japanese manuf need bottom up plan, fast and
