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The demise of the OEMs

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1974 Porsche 914 conversion, (96v, 35 mile range)
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So Elon’s really secret master plan is:
- osborne the competition’s EVs by enticing them to support NACS
- while at the same time driving prices down so that the competition looses even more money per EV they make
- so stalling the progress of the competition for a couple of years
- so that Tesla can 2x their economies of scale by the time the competition has NACS capable cars.
- so that the competition has to fire their UAW personnel.

How close am I?
 
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I finished my 2nd and final day at Japan Mobility Show Web Site 2023. The line to get in was nuts. I posted a video of it at
. The show was crazy crowded from the time I made it in (sometime past 10:35 am) for many hours. More commentary and context at Japan Mobility Show 2023 - My Nissan Leaf Forum.

FWIW, as I've mentioned, Japan isn't a strong EV market at all (BEVs make a up a tiny share of the passenger automobile market: Japan EV sales just 2% of domestic market, trailing China and Europe). If the crowds to get in and and the various ICEV makers's booths are any indication, ICEV is alive and well here in Japan. That said, there was way more EV emphasis at Japan Mobility Show 2023 than the last time the show was held (formerly known as Tokyo Motor Show) in 2019, which I attended too... but still. TOKYO MOTOR SHOW WEB SITE has some historical info.
 
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Back to the above show, if you click thru the various halls at Japan Mobility Show Web Site, you can get an idea of who was exhibiting and booth size. The major automakers were at Japan Mobility Show Web Site and Japan Mobility Show Web Site (East Halls 1 thru 6). Renault had a tiny presence with a small booth, just 3 cars and nothing fancy at all compared to the big money being spent by the major Japanese automakers.

OT: I'm guessing UAW deals will raise costs for Detroit. Will they be able to raise prices? - Autoblog and may have been posted elsewhere.
 
I saw this and was quite surprised. A 65% of franchised dealerships refuse to sell a used EV. Their policy is to wholesale them.

They use "battery history" as an excuse but most are still under the original manufacturers 8 year warranty.


These are the same dealers that are likely holding back legacy automakers new EV sales.

There is probably a business opportunity here.

Agreed, especially on your second point -- Sales of the Bolt and "competitor" EVs will always be capped by how many the company is willing and able to make. A big reason why the Model Y, at roughly twice the price, sells 20x more than the Chevy Bolt is because Tesla can and does produce 20x as many of them. (Of course, assorted vehicle features and details are a big reason too.) Even if an updated/refreshed Bolt comes out with enhanced design and specs and a $25K price, if they are still only building it on a 50,000 per year line and only have access to 50,000 vehicles worth of battery cells, it can't sell more than 50,000 per year. Doesn't matter what the demand is if the supply is limited...

This is a big thing that the anti-Tesla/anti-Elon/EV FUD media can't seem to understand. Many articles on, for example, Jalopnik (where they really hate Elon and Tesla in a mindless cult-like way) will exaggerate some new objectionable "news" about Elon or Tesla, and then whine about why anybody would buy a Tesla when there are "so many alternatives" available. Sure, there are plenty of other EV *models* available, but no other manufacturer can (or is willing to) manufacture and sell Tesla-like numbers (except perhaps Chinese companies that don't sell in the US.) So, if Tesla suddenly stopped selling 1.8 million Teslas per year, there just aren't other options to fill the gap. GM can't suddenly up Bolt production by 10x. Kia/Hyundai also can't up production by 10x without significant time and expense. Factories have to be built/upgraded, supply chains built up, etc.

Tesla is just the only company that actually planned to built EV's in 500,000+ numbers annually, so they are the only one that does. Everybody else is limited by their own plans (and of course design/engineering capabilities, etc.)...and thus far, all of those plans target notably smaller numbers.

You'd think supposed auto experts, journalists, and so-called analysts would have this basic understanding...but they don't, and they keep drumming on the "competitors are coming" or "you don't have to buy a Tesla! Toyota has an EV now and they made several dozen of them!" nonsense.

Don't laugh.


BMW says they'll start delivering these new cells 2 years from now. So we'll see who's catching who. ;)

"With all this being said, however, BMW’s new cells aren’t quite ready for prime time yet. For now, sample units are being manufactured at the company’s own facility, with delivery-intent cells slated to be made at up to six battery gigafactories around the world by BMW’s suppliers CATL and Eve Energy starting in 2025. That’s when the first series-production EVs based on the Neue Klasse architecture are set to debut."​
 
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