-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
The demise of the OEMs
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
navguy12
Active Member
The Chevy Blazer EV Isn't Alone. GM Owners Say The Ultium Cars Are A Hot Mess
Charging issues, infotainment problems and frustration seem to be common for Cadillac Lyriq, GMC Hummer, and Chevrolet Blazer EV owners.
insideevs.com
This news is about a week old and Daihatsu didn't sell for very long in the US. I'm not aware of them having had any BEVs shipping.
"Daihatsu produced 1.1 million vehicles over the first 10 months of the year, nearly 40% of those at overseas sites, according to Toyota data. It sold some 660,000 vehicles worldwide over that period and accounted for 7% of Toyota's sales.
Toyota said on Wednesday affected models included those for the Southeast Asian markets of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia and Vietnam and Central and South American countries of Mexico, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, Bolivia and Uruguay.
Daihatsu is the latest safety issue to impact the Toyota group over the years."
global.toyota
www.theguardian.com
"Production is currently set to be suspended at its factories across Japan until at least the end of January, affecting 9,000 workers and more than 8,000 suppliers. Daihatsu produced about 870,000 vehicles in Japan last year, a supply chain worth approximately 2.2tn yen (US$15bn)."
"Daihatsu produced 1.1 million vehicles over the first 10 months of the year, nearly 40% of those at overseas sites, according to Toyota data. It sold some 660,000 vehicles worldwide over that period and accounted for 7% of Toyota's sales.
Toyota said on Wednesday affected models included those for the Southeast Asian markets of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia and Vietnam and Central and South American countries of Mexico, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, Bolivia and Uruguay.
Daihatsu is the latest safety issue to impact the Toyota group over the years."
Notice of Additional Procedural Irregularities by Daihatsu in Certification Applications, Shipment Suspension of Vehicles Sold by Toyota, and Responses Going Forward (as of December 17) | Corporate | Global Newsroom | Toyota Motor Corporation Officia
Today, Daihatsu Motor Co., Ltd. (Daihatsu) received the investigation results of the Independent Third-Party Committee (chaired by Makoto Kaiami) commissioned by Daihatsu regarding procedural irregularities, which it reported to Toyota Motor Corporation (Toyota) in turn. The investigation found...
Daihatsu suspends production in Japan after safety test scandal
Toyota subsidiary has admitted falsifying data on some models for more than 30 years
www.theguardian.com
Possibly lost in translation but I love the idea of Mercedes designing and testing a bit of plastic shaped like a bath in trepidation.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I've been trying, and usually failing, to explain that idea to other people. I've got better information for next time, to help people see.
You're doing better than me if you can get an NPC to sit down and discuss for 5 mins (regardless of the outcome).
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I've been trying to articulate the economics of the whole thing. It is as blindingly obvious to me as the creator of the video - there is nothing working in favor of the ICEV manufacturers. Everything has turned against them - even the things that are ordinarily advantages have transformed into disadvantages.
And then I saw the tweet about GM bragging about how they were returning cash to share holders. The stock market seemed to like that and big the company up on the spot. I read that and (generously) I saw a company that realized they had no hope, but they could still run the business off with the demise of ICEV, returning cash to share holders as long as there is still a market to keep the capital investment at work.
Big capital intensive businesses don't live long without the volume that makes big capital intensive businesses run. Tesla doesn't need to replace the Ford F150 to ruin the economics of that business for Ford. Even a 10% decrease in units for Ford might be enough to destroy the company.
We won't need 10 years for ICEV to stop existing. The businesses as we know them today will die rapidly, as consumers increasingly realize that they would be buying a stranded asset. Instead they will delay their next vehicle, switch to a Lyft type transportation dependency, or buy EV. By 2030 the vehicle fleet in the US will be seeing ~0 new ICEV (light duty, personal use vehicles) entering the fleet. There will always be a bespoke market for ICEV, just like there is still a bespoke market for horse and buggy/wagon setups.
There ARE ICEV markets that will continue seeing new vehicles in 2030. Beyond class 8 trucks (Tesla Semi is aiming at that market), other heavy duty commercial trucks (class 3 through 7), with the lower end of that scale possibly fully electric by then. Fully electric isn't the fleet - its the new vehicles entering the fleet.
But the real markets I'm thinking of are ag equipment (tractors), construction machinery (loaders, back hoes, bull dozers, scrapers, ...). Also long distance transport - air and sea. Trains. I wonder if there is a way to run an electric line along enough segments of train lines for trains to run off of a power line, instead of an onboard diesel generator?
Anyway - these markets all have externals that will make them hard to tackle. They are also markets that will see operating costs increase dramatically, at least their fuel costs. Today those markets have functionally subsidized fuel costs due to the very large volume of diesel AND gasoline consumed across all of them combined. For those that haven't been following along in the Oil thread, the value of a barrel of oil comes from the collection of things it can be refined into, with the 2 primary value sources being gasoline and diesel. Gas carries the load today, and diesel is highly valuable.
In the future the gasoline market will be drying up, putting more and more of the value of a barrel of oil into the diesel. Refineries will need to be adjusted to make diesel the primary value extracted from a barrel of oil. That will probably change which barrels of oil are more valuable.
If I'm right, towards the end of the gas ICEV era, those driving gas cars might see $1/gallon gas again. With the shift to diesel as the dominant value in a barrel of oil, gasoline will become a waste product from production of diesel. Anybody that will buy any of it will offset some of the cost of refining! Sort of how asphalt is a waste product of oil refining today - its a whole lot cheaper to pour out that waste as new roads, than it is to dump it in a landfill.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Absolutely, mathematically, impossible.
New car buying is not going to drop by 50% or more in the next 6 years, and there's not likely to be enough EVs produced by 2030 to represent even 50% of current new car sales let alone 100%. Outside of Tesla and BYD nobody's even seriously trying to scale up at this point, and scaling does not happen in a short amount of time once you start trying.... (and BYD isn't even selling in the US at all, so it's basically JUST Tesla at this point-- some credit to Hyundai/Kia but do the math and they're not anywhere near what else is needed by 2030)- on the contrary many makers are slowing down what little scaling they had planned.
You may well see consolidation and some of the weakest players dying off by 2030. But 0 new sales of passenger vehicles that run on gas? Not any chance whatsoever by that date.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
If you mean no new ICE models, maybe. If you literally mean new ICE sales will be zero, then..... I'll take that bet.
I agree with Knightshade (!), that's impossible. Hopefully you've voted at Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll".
Doubtful they will delay their next vehicle purchase because of your claimed "reason". As for Lyft, try taking it or Uber on a regular basis. It's crazy expensive. My work has a program where we can use either to commute and because the ride counts as income, I'd have to pay Federal and CA state income tax on the value of that ride (around 44.3% marginal tax rate in total). So, even w/my work paying for the ride, the taxes are crazy expensive for me, so I've almost never used it.
For where I live and work w/awful and near useless public transit, no way I'd want to give up my car in favor of Lyft or similar rideshare service.
I stand by my vote of after 2040. I've stated many reasons why along w/the factors many times within that thread.
Disagree with option 3, buying an EV. There are too many barriers (see the above thread). Start with the list at Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll" then add people who cannot charge at home nor work then add about 1/3 of the country w/certain political views (for starters).
Look at the reported US sales tables of some major OEMs like these:
Toyota Motor North America Reports U.S. September and Third Quarter 2023 Sales Results - Toyota USA Newsroom
PLANO, Texas (Oct. 3, 2023) – Toyota Motor North America (TMNA) today reported U.S. September 2023 sales of 203,904 vehicles, up 13.9 percent on a volume basis and up 9.5 percent on a daily selling rate (DSR) basis versus September […]
pressroom.toyota.com
American Honda Advances Sales Momentum with Strong September and 3rd Quarter Sales Results - their only recent US BEVs I can think of were the compliance car lease only Fit EV (years ago) and the died a few years ago Clarity EV
Nissan Group reports 2023 third-quarter U.S. sales
Nissan Group announced total U.S. third-quarter (July - September) sales for 2023 of 216,878 units, an increase of 40.8% versus the prior year.
usa.nissannews.com
Yep.
Not sure which side you're on, but if it's in disagreement with adiggs and in agreement with Knightshade, I'll also side w/Knightshade on this. It is completely impossible in the US by 2030.
Sounds like adiggs is living in a completely different world and needs to visit some other parts of the US w/almost no EVs besides talking to people who recently bought or leased ICEVs. Heck, even if you visit some parts of California w/o a strong EV presence, it's quite a contrast to Silicon Valley. The other day, here in Silicon Valley, I saw a brand new extended length Cadillac "Ice Capade" go down the road w/temp placard.
In The Chevy Blazer EV Isn't Alone. GM Owners Say The Ultium Cars Are A Hot Mess, "Sammy Kumar had a 2023 Cadillac Lyriq, but similar software woes with the infotainment screen and Super Cruise saw him trade the car in for an Escalade-V." So, he traded a not very efficient problem BEV for a monstrosity 680ish hp $149K+ BRoD (battering ram of death) 13 mpg combiend ICEV.
Last edited:
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Global car sales 2019-2023 | Statista
Global car sales fluctuated over the past years amid disruptions in the industry. In 2023, car sales worldwide grew past pre-pandemic levels.
www.statista.com
From the point of view that the world has been demanding 70M cars a year, and has been doing so for a long time, it seems like minimum future demand will continue to be 70M. I can think of reasons for it to grow and for it to shrink - none of which are our point here today. From this point of view I am 100% in agreement with you that EV units will not have reached 70M by 2030. That does not mean that meaningful numbers of ICEV will be purchased new in 2030.
There are at least 2 additional big factors (that I can think of) that will have a major impact on the size of the auto market in 2030 and the mix of gas cars to EVs that will be sold (I'm ignoring robo-taxi / fully autonomous vehicles).
The first has to do with consumers. What will consumers actually be willing, and even eager, to buy? Can't remember where I saw it (maybe earlier in this thread) where the central point the person was making is that by 2030, the consumer that wants to buy a gas engine car needs to be brain damaged. Admittedly that description was going for humor and is a bit over the top, but the idea is not. By 2030 it will be widely obvious that gas engine cars are more expensive, cost more to operate, perform less well, and provide less utility. It will also be widely obvious that those gas engine cars have lower resale value. They will be worse in every dimension except the thrill of the rev and engine noise.
What will those consumers that currently want 70M car units a year going to do, when their simplistic choices are (1) buy an EV when there aren't enough available to sell to everybody that wants one, or (2) keep the current car / buy a used gas car instead of buying EV, or (3) buy a new gas engine car?
The easy answer is to do whatever they can do to avoid #3.
Next - what sort of a gas engine car manufacturing business can be operated using that customer base (clearly there won't be a new one being built from scratch)? Let's see - our market advantage is that we have capacity to build stuff that is more expensive, costs more to operate, performs less well, has lower utility, and will lose what little value it has a lot faster than its competition. But at least we can build them - that's more than we can say about the competition, who WILL be able to build our replacements in a short amount of time (certainly a lot less time than historical car manufacturing capital investment cycles).
What will happen is that a big hunk of the difference between the historical car market (70M units) and the number of BEV units that can be manufactured will be made up through keeping the current ICEV longer and buying used where previously buyers would buy new. Most of the missing units will not be replaced by new ICEV sales - they will be "replaced" by the existing fleet seeing its average age increase.
There's a rock and a hard spot coming. Consumers need to want to buy, or at least be willing to be convinced, to buy ICEV. And enough car makers need to survive selling ICEV to build those cars to sell them. The economics suck, and are going to get worse at an accelerating rate, for the existing ICEV makers. The thing about capital intense businesses - they are REALLY sensitive to a loss in volume.
To make up the gap between today's market and what the BEV manufacturers can provide, you need two things: consumers that will buy ICEV, and ICEV manufacturers that can stay in business. Both of those are in danger, and I do see them contributing to a significant drop in car units. That's already starting and will become increasingly obvious well before 2030.
Or at least - that's the way I see it.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Thanks for this pointer! I did go vote, and I'm taking the under on 2030 (2028 specifically).
I believe that we agree with dynamics of the different issues - consumer acceptance, ability of industry to make that many. I see us emphasizing the 2 biggies differently - I'm in the "if consumers are buying at gunpoint, then they're not buying in meaningful numbers" vs the "industry can't make that many by then" camp.
Agree meaning that :
(1) you agree with me that consumer acceptance in 5-7 years will be an issue. I'm guessing you see the issue, but don't see it as being as big of a deal as I do; probably also that I am overestimating the acceptance of EV broadly), and
(2) I definitely agree with you that industry won't be building anything like 70m/year (replacement of current industry).
I'm not as much in agreement that industry won't be building 35M by then. Obviously - I chose a much earlier year than you did in the poll
. I am however quote comfortable with the idea that industry will be building half of a smaller industry. It won't be a permanently lower annual units industry, just an industry in transition, going through the Valley of Death.I completely respect that.
No matter what, the popcorn is good and I'm enjoying the show!