The Volt is dead, long live the Volt!

[ℬête Noire]

GM is now 0 for 2 with the cancellation of the Volt.

What did you think their goal was?

And the Bolt already is clearly a success for what it's goal was. It was never a "Tesla killer", that's stupid sugar that pundits said to run up clicks and/or because they didn't know any better. It was a skunkworks tech development project to sell 20K-30K/year units. Assume that management didn't want to come at it in the direction Tesla was, and certainly not at volume, because that threatens their own high margin ICE products. Which precludes a "profit today" goal.

GM was largely counting on Tesla to kill itself (which was a very real chance until late Summer this year). Deep down they don't want EVs, any EVs, to succeed at this point.

 

[brianman]

Then why ever would you respond to my post like that if you're "agreeing"????

Your first post (1) I didn't agree (2) with because you made it sound like Musk can/must lead the negotiation. You replied (3) with a different intent, and my point (4) was that (3) is basically agreeing with me (2) even though that's different from (1).

 

[ℬête Noire]

Your first post (1) I didn't agree (2) with because you made it sound like Musk can/must lead the negotiation. You replied (3) with a different intent, and my point (4) was that (3) is basically agreeing with me (2) even though that's different from (1).

You misread. Got it. I was just setting up what I thought it'd require for UAW involvement: 1) UAW to have a brain transplant 2) Musk have the plant management handle labour relations directly.

The 2nd I see as possible, depending on what they build there. The closer it is the bleeding edge of product development the tougher it'd be. On the other hand if they treat it more like an "overseas 'here too'" location that's a lot more workable. The 1st I have negligible confidence in but maybe UAW is ready to see the writing on the wall and heed it?

One thing I'm sure of, if Tesla isn't pro-active in engaging and fostering a new union with a mindset not of the current industry they'll eventually get stuck with UAW at Oshawa even if they don't want them (and probably end up with fines and stuff trying to stave it off, too). This "make 'no union' a legally binding requirement of any deal" idea is very unlikely to fly, it's unclear how that could even happen.

P.S. I do wonder how much Tesla would care about this for siting in Oshawa, that's not even a 1/3 of the kWh/kW/day of Arizona (not as far out of line with GF 2, in upstate NY). There is relatively low CO2 footprint on the electricity (because of hydro and nukes along with respectable wind), but solar itself isn't very strong there. I expect lake weather is what messes with it, because further Eastnortheast up the St. Lawrence in lower Quebec they have better numbers.

 

[wdolson]

GM went 0 for 1 with the EV-1. We all know the story, but it was the first pure EV.

GM is now 0 for 2 with the cancellation of the Volt. The rapid rise of the pure EV sealed the Volt's fate, plus they were losing money on every car produced. With the tax credit going away this would only get worse.

The 0 for 3 coming soon is the demise of the Bolt. The Tesla Killer that actually beat the Model 3 to market was going to prove once and for all the the legacy automakers could easily "ramp up" EV production on a moments notice and crush the upstart Tesla. The Model 3 is outselling the Bolt 14-1 despite costing $10,000+ more. The 0 for 3 will finally happen when GM cancels the Bolt as Tesla drops the entry level Model 3 price where any sane person wouldn't even consider the Bolt.

So now the "story line" is that the 0 for 3 GM management who lost the "are you smarter than a 5th grader" contest is going to pour some ungodly billions of $$$ into their autonomous vehicle and EV programs.

Anyone following TMC for the last several years predicted the 0 for 3 long ago, despite the GM fanboys and Wall Street analysts incessant reporting of the latest Tesla killers, blah, blah, blah.

The last Chapter 11 episode for GM was in June 2009. Another opportunity of a lifetime is awaiting those who understand what is coming and figure out the timing for when the rest of the herd will figure it out.

RT

I'm not so sure about this analysis. GM management is not monolithic and has had different character at different times. Mary Barra is an Electrical Engineer by training and sees electric cars as the future much more than any previous GM CEO. The Volt was GM's step back into the electric car world. I believe the volt was originally supposed to be pure electric, but management was too conservative then to jump that far.

The Volt's best selling year was 2016, when around 24K were sold in the US. It dropped to a little more than 20K in 2017 and sales dropped further this year. The Bolt took sales away from the Volt and the Model 3 in turn took sales away from the Bolt.

GM has said the Bolt's tech is the core of their future EV efforts. The Bolt itself might leave the market in a couple of years, but it will be replaced by other cars with the Bolt's architecture. Despite what the automotive writers said about it, I don't recall GM ever claiming they could scale Bolt sales as needed to any significant level. I think there was talk of modest scaling (possibly to 50K a year), but not more than that anytime in the near future.

The Bolt has the crown for being the first affordable long range EV and it is one of the first from a mainstream manufacturer that doesn't look like a weirdmobile too much, but the size and layout of the car is not that popular in the US. If GM would send numbers to Europe, they might sell there.

My SO drives a Subaru Impreza which is small by American standards and she commented that the Bolt was even smaller than the Impreza. It's too small to have a mass market appeal. The Model 3's platform is right in the middle of the bell curve for size, but the car type (sedan) is not popular and the Model Y will likely be more popular in the US.

What GM did was drop some of the cars with declining sales numbers and no real future for the company. I looked up the sales numbers for all of them and they all declined in recent years:
Chevrolet Volt Sales Numbers

Chevrolet Cruze Sales Numbers
http://gmauthority.com/blog/gm/chevrolet/cruze/chevrolet-cruze-sales-numbers/
Cadillac CT6 Sales Numbers

Cadillac ATS Sales Numbers

Buick LaCrosse Sales Numbers

Chevrolet Impala Sales Numbers
http://gmauthority.com/blog/gm/chevrolet/impala/chevrolet-impala-sales-numbers/
Tesla has sold more Model S in the last 6 months in the US alone than the CT6 has sold in 3 years. Even the Bolt outsold the LaCrosse last year. The Bolt has slightly outsold the LsCrosse this year too.

A few years ago the Impala sold well over 100K a year in the US, but they only sold 75K last year and may not break 60K this year. Sales for this year are around 1/3 2010 sales numbers.

The Cruze is the only car on the list that will sell more than 100K this year, and that's down from 273K in 2014.

For American car makers who sell the bulk of their cars in North America, it generally isn't worth it to sell sedans anymore. I would not be surprised if US sales of the Model 3 tank when the Model Y comes out. The Model S keeps selling in part because it isn't a traditional sedan, it's actually a hatchback. We love its versatility and has become the household hauler. The back seats are folded down 99% of the time.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Tesla has sold more Model S in the last 6 months in the US alone than the CT6 has sold in 3 years.

That's not really a straight comparison, though. The CT6 is the tech development top-end variant of the Cadillac line. For example it's the only vehicle that GM has, so far, made Super Cruise available on. So, although not a perfect analogy, that is more something to compare Model S Pxxx sales to.

I've seen it speculated that GM will roll in the CT6's role & tech when they replace, as previously announced, the CTS with the CT5. As a product line re-org, coupled with a manufacturing re-org that's downsizing in expecting a tough overall automobile market in the future, that makes some sense to me.

P.S. On board with the rest of your post.

 

[happyzod]

The Volt had tons of style compared to other Chevys. Also, it was fast when it was on electric. I happily drove mine for two years. The problems I saw with it were, 1.) When I bought it the dealership didn't even know that the charger wasn't in the trunk. They really just wanted to get rid of it and really didn't know anything about it. 2.) It wasn't all electric and it was time to get my Tesla.

I do have sympathy for the workers who will be losing their jobs. Most of them just want to put food on their table and they have been the victims of the short-sighted GM management. I'm hoping that Tesla can buy at least one of the factories and put these people to work, if they can work out a deal with the UAW. I am a union member, but I also see the downsides to a union.

Let me put it this way. If the Model 3 did 0-60 in 8 seconds, far less people would be paying ASP of 55K for it. Chevy volt is a sedan and sedans that don't have the IT factor are not selling well right now.

 

[RedModel3]

Let me put it this way. If the Model 3 did 0-60 in 8 seconds, far less people would be paying ASP of 55K for it. Chevy volt is a sedan and sedans that don't have the IT factor are not selling well right now.

The 3 is a sedan too. Did you drive a Volt? It was, and continues to be, probably the best plug-in hybrid out there. Chevy has been doing nothing but shooting themselves in the foot since the EV-1.

 

[samotlietuvis]

I like my Gen II Volt, but a lot to be said about chevy not capitalizing on awesome Volt's drive train in an SUV and or truck. The dual planetary gear transmission is a piece of engineering art and can handle lots of torque, something SUV and or truck can use.
Sad to see it go, hopefully better new EV cars come out of GM.

 

[AceSkywalker]

The Voltec powertrain isn't dead. The Volt was compromised by being a relatively cramped compact sedan in the age of unquenchable demand for SUVs and pickup trucks. We'll see it return in one of those form factors sooner or later.

The 3 is a sedan too. Did you drive a Volt? It was, and continues to be, probably the best plug-in hybrid out there. Chevy has been doing nothing but shooting themselves in the foot since the EV-1.

Tesla seems to be the exception with the Model S being the better seller than the Model X (though that may be in part of the reputation the X has gained in its infancy). If vehicle tastes remain the same, I expect the Model Y to eclipse the 3.