Think I've figured out when I'm going to get my Model 3.

[igotzzoom]

I think I now have a better idea of when I'm going to get my Model 3. By my calculations, it will probably be around February of next year. I'm going by the stated production targets of 1,000 units a week starting in July, ramping up to 5,000 a week by the end of 2017. I erred somewhat on the conservative side, with 4,000 units a week for October and November, and 5,000 a week in Dec, Jan and Feb '18. That brings cumulative production to around 120,000 units.

I live in California, and I reserved on 3/31/16 (but not before the reveal). I'm imagining the first several thousand units will go to employees and existing owners, and will essentially be a "captive" fleet, observed and tracked very closely for any initial quality issues or manufacturing defects. I am totally fine with this, as I assumed it would be between March-May '18 by the time I got mine.

 

[T34ME]

I'm sort of in the same "boat" as you. I reserved 3/31 on-line before the reveal. I figure I will get mine sometime after the first of the year, but so much depends on how they prioritize the distribution according to options. I will not be purchasing a base model. I have budgeted $10K to $15K for options, but it depends on what the options are. Yes, for that price I am close to the price of an S. But I don't want an S, I really prefer the size and style of the TM3. Only time will tell.

 

[igotzzoom]

I'd love to get a dual motor, but it's going to depend on the pricing. If the "base" RWD model is around 5-flat 0-60, I think I'd be perfectly fine with that. I have a self-imposed budget of around $45k.

 

[BluestarE3]

I think I now have a better idea of when I'm going to get my Model 3. By my calculations, it will probably be around February of next year.

In my case, I'm thinking maybe February 29, 2018?

(i.e., I have no idea when I'll be getting mine)

 

[azred]

I think I now have a better idea of when I'm going to get my Model 3. By my calculations, it will probably be around February of next year. I'm going by the stated production targets of 1,000 units a week starting in July, ramping up to 5,000 a week by the end of 2017. I erred somewhat on the conservative side, with 4,000 units a week for October and November, and 5,000 a week in Dec, Jan and Feb '18. That brings cumulative production to around 120,000 units.

I live in California, and I reserved on 3/31/16 (but not before the reveal). I'm imagining the first several thousand units will go to employees and existing owners, and will essentially be a "captive" fleet, observed and tracked very closely for any initial quality issues or manufacturing defects. I am totally fine with this, as I assumed it would be between March-May '18 by the time I got mine.

Your estimate is probably as reasonable as that provided by any fancy spreadsheet, which is to say it is probably just as inaccurate.

 

[Big-T]

The other thing you have going for you is that you're in CA...While Elon said "West Coast" a year ago, we clearly know that it can mean a variety of things, but I'd think California would get the first few thousand cars before they branch out to neighboring states and even after that it would be easiest to keep pumping out in California if they want to edge up the delivery numbers for quarterly results.

 

[N5329K]

I'd wait until the first 1000 or so have been out in the wild for a month, then run the numbers and see how they look (and be glad your 3 wasn't one of them),
Robin

 

[ZeApelido]

They are going to start with like 50 / week in July.

 

[igotzzoom]

Your estimate is probably as reasonable as that provided by any fancy spreadsheet, which is to say it is probably just as inaccurate.

Yeah, it's just a guesstimate. Guess we'll find out as the date draws closer.

 

[happyguy]

Based on rumors ---
"Based on a “source who has been quite reliable so far,” Tesla Model 3 Owners Club states:

“What I was told is that Tesla will be moving to more of an inventory sales approach with Model 3. This process has already started with Model S where Tesla is getting more and more incentivised for the owner advisors each quarter to hit their goals and to push more inventory cars that are prebuilt by Tesla.”
"

Link

Might get the car sooner if your configuration is the one Tesla chooses to prebuild... This model makes so much sense if they really want to ramp up quickly.

 

[boaterva]

Based on even the S and X, there are only fewer than 30 options (including wheels, colors, roofs, and options themselves, and including software only ones, which shouldn't count as they can always be added to any car OTA). We know there are going to be even fewer than that for the 3.

I would assume there would end up being a lot less popular packages/combos. Who knows what popular colors there will be, which of these options won't exist on the 3 (well, we know some... 3rd row seats like the S, etc.).

So, until we see the configurator, we can't say. But there will definitely be a LOT fewer combinations even theoretically possible, never mind 'popular'.

Point is: If this 'built in advance' is true, it may not matter.

 

[timk225]

I know exactly when I will get my 3. It'll get here when it gets here.

I was 3rd in line on the morning of reveal day (3/31), I'm not getting the D or the P. Few options if any, maybe the dual chargers and we'll see how much Tesla wants for the big battery.

I am guessing around the end of this year, October at the earliest.

I do want to have a lot of 3's on the road before I get mine, so they can find and fix the problems before mine is built. I also hope the service centers get their demonstration 3's quickly.

 

[WileyTheMan]

I have an optimistic goal of December 2017, but obviously that depends on a lot of factors, of which there are just too many unknowns right now.

I keep drawing myself back to waiting for July's final reveal before I start making any real predictions. Do I pay less of a less-optioned car, get a bigger tax rebate, and get it sooner? Or get a more heavily optioned car, pay more, risk get less tax credit, and wait longer? Finance-wise, it's a no-brainer. Passion-wise, its hard decision.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I was second in line at the Chicago store. I estimate that I will get my Model 3 D........

With no tax benefit
All options checked ( If there are any )

......right after ....lets see .....

right after a kid is conceived tomorrow.... and after that kid gets a new brother or sister. What's that? 18 months ( 9 months EMT ).

 

[Garlan Garner]

I wonder how many families will have multiple kids before they get their model 3

 

[Max*]

Based on even the S and X, there are only fewer than 30 options (including wheels, colors, roofs, and options themselves, and including software only ones, which shouldn't count as they can always be added to any car OTA). We know there are going to be even fewer than that for the 3.

I would assume there would end up being a lot less popular packages/combos. Who knows what popular colors there will be, which of these options won't exist on the 3 (well, we know some... 3rd row seats like the S, etc.).

So, until we see the configurator, we can't say. But there will definitely be a LOT fewer combinations even theoretically possible, never mind 'popular'.

Point is: If this 'built in advance' is true, it may not matter.

It's actually a little more than 30 individual options

With the Model S those "few" options make theoretical 268,800 combinations (assuming I didn't screw up the math). Which is streamlined, since I remember when there were well over 1M combinations for the S about a year ago (so they removed a few options).

 

[Max*]

right after a kid is conceived tomorrow.... and after that kid gets a new brother or sister. What's that? 18 months ( 9 months EMT ).

Bad analogy, it's highly unlikely to conceive a 2nd kid right after the first is born.