Was wondering when someone would start pointing out the thing that is obvious to anyone who owns as a Tesla.
When Will The Motor Industry Self-Destruct?
When Will The Motor Industry Self-Destruct?
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That part of the article I am not fully in agreement with. It's not so much a lack of focus as simply typical short term corporate thinking. The top executives make their money by meeting quarterly and annual goals. They don't think long term like Elon does. The other auto company CEOs figure they can keep making ICE cars for a few more years, get paid millions, and then retire. They don't care about what will happen to their company a decade from now and neither do most of their shareholders. So there is no economic forcing function acting on them to change their short term behavior.The answer is simple: focus, or lack of it.
The concept that one should not succeed because one will be taking away from one's legacy and history is silly. I've never understood the don't-cannibalize argument. It kind of sounds like "stop breathing, because you don't want to go outside and breath new fresh air."A quote from Steve Jobs
Walter Isaacson: “One of Job's business rules was to never be afraid of cannibalizing yourself. "If you don't cannibalize yourself, someone else will," he said. So even though an Iphone might cannibalize sales of an IPod, or an IPad might cannibalize sales of a laptop, that did not deter him.”
Tesla has already shown them how to build the vehicle and the charging infrastructure. The batteries just aren't quite there yet. As soon as Tesla shows them how to get the battery cost down and the energy density up, it's all over for the ice.
By that time, battery prices which are currently ~200 $/kWh may have reached 100 $/kWh, making a 100-kWh battery just 10 k$.
Unusually perceptive article in Forbes. I liked this quote:
"My position when I go to a car show is simple: I am not even remotely interested in anything that produces smoke. And neither is my daughter, or most of the people her age I know. I not only believe that the era of fossil fuels is over, but that car companies, by continuing to manufacture vehicles with internal combustion engines, are failing to meet the most obvious standards of corporate social responsibility. "
I'd venture Tesla's costs are near that today, and the GF will have them below that by next year.
There is a very real risk that the ICE market collapses far quicker than anybody imagines.