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Thread Tracking Model X Configuration Ramp (Delivery Ramp to follow)

Discussion in 'Model X' started by aija SigX 649, Sep 18, 2015.

  1. aija SigX 649

    aija SigX 649 Winged Lion

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    #1 aija SigX 649, Sep 18, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2015
    Known Sig Configurations as of 9/18/2015

    09/01/15 27
    09/08/15 171
    09/14/15 313
    09/17/15 448

    X Config Ramp 09-18-15.png
     
  2. primetime

    primetime Member

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    Thank you for setting this up! This will be great to watch. Looks like you may be next week! Hopefully I won't be too long after!
    Sig X#911
     
  3. Lyon

    Lyon 2016 S P100DL, 2016 X P90D

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    If they stick with inviting ~140 people (I'm not taking into account probable cancellations) every Tuesday and Thursday, all the Signatures will be invited before the middle of October. I wouldn't be shocked if they increase the number of invites sent out per batch at some point. It also won't surprise me if they don't.
     
  4. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    Not that I know anything, but I suspect that this isn't a simple linear "invite x/week" situation. I suspect rather that Tesla is extending invites at a measured pace in the hope of getting enough configured cars ordered and batched to handle initial production. If this is correct, then we could easily see a time arrive where Tesla has as many cars configured as they need to get production started, and will then take some time (few weeks?) off from extending new invites.

    I know that I'm one example of a reasonably early Sig holder that hasn't and won't be configuring for at least a couple of weeks.
     
  5. Lyon

    Lyon 2016 S P100DL, 2016 X P90D

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    Another possibility is that a lot of folks will be holding off confirming orders and they'll increase the pace.

    Honestly, I don't know what they're going to do and they may not either. It sure is fun to speculate though! :biggrin:
     
  6. simplejack

    simplejack Member

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  7. aija SigX 649

    aija SigX 649 Winged Lion

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    Yes, I have signed up, however Paul is currently not tracking configuration ramp. We can drop this thread if that should change ..hint, hint, Paul :)
     
  8. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter Active Member

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    You mean like this? ;)

    ramp 9-22-2015 4-00-48 PM.png
     
  9. gjunky

    gjunky Waiting for the Model ☰

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  10. aija SigX 649

    aija SigX 649 Winged Lion

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    Sweet :biggrin:
     
  11. excited

    excited Member

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    I am very excited to be number 950. From the iformation in this thread, I should be called next week. I am very curious as to how you know when and how many they are calling? I couldn't get any information from Tesla. Can someone tell me how you know all this? thanks.
     
  12. CmdrThor

    CmdrThor Member

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    Forum members who get the email post when they got it. The highest known number may be a little lower than the actual highest that has been invited to configure.

    Since there are only four data points so far I'd be careful in drawing any conclusions as to when you will be invited to configure. They could ramp up quickly, or have a several week break. For example the first two weeks invites went out on Tuesdays. The third week invites were Monday and Thursday. The fourth week (this week), there was nothing on Monday or Tuesday.
     
  13. aija SigX 649

    aija SigX 649 Winged Lion

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    Agreed. The intention isn't to speculate, predict, or draw conclusions ..only record what we know and graph the results. Personally interested in watching how it will unfold.
     
  14. excited

    excited Member

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    I have not see one entry in this thread from one person who said they were called and what number they were. Where are you getting your info?
     
  15. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter Active Member

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    From other threads that people are posting their information. I also have a tracker up and we just got people confirming their orders already. Here is the latest report now that a new batch has been released.

    HIGHEST RESERVATION INVITED TO CONFIGURE: USA Signature # 700, that's + 252 (PREVIOUSLY +227 TO 448 ON 2015-09-17 14:35)

    9-24-2015 4-47-24 PM.png
     
  16. ptsagcy

    ptsagcy Member

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    Paul - I must have missed something somewhere. What do the 3 colors (Blue, Orange, Green) signify? Thanks again for this great tool.
     
  17. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter Active Member

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    Blue: Reservations, Aqua: Design Studio (Invited to Configure), Orange: Ordered (waiting delivery), Green: Delivered, and Red: Cancelled. I'll try and get the legend working for the next one I post.

    9-24-2015 10-23-14 PM.png
     
  18. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

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    Interesting. Just assuming they stay at 250/week invitations, it would make sense they plan to make (250-# of cancellations) cars per week a few weeks in the future. If they kept that constant until end 2015, that would be very roughly 3000 Model Xs by the end of year. How does that compare to the total of Sig reservations (I forget the number), as they said the sigs will be delivered by the end of 2015?

    If they were to increase that rate, it would still be possible to hit the 5000 they set as a goal (I think in the Q2 report). On the other hand, also possible they just fill up the queue in the beginning to figure out cancellation rates and distribution of certain options etc. and then send fewer configuration invitations for a while until everyhting is running smoothely before seriously ramping.
     
  19. CmdrThor

    CmdrThor Member

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    Honestly I think the graph is incredibly misleading. I totally appreciate and understand the work you are doing with the site, but it is not clear that the invited to configure is an estimate of the total number of people invited to configure and the ordered is only people who have entered their data on your site. I think you should replace the invited to configure column with the people who have entered their data who have been invited. That way you get a sense of the percentage of people who have been invited that have ordered. You have just a sampling of the total data.

    If I were a nasty anti-Tesla journalist, I would take your graph and slap it on my news article with the headline "Five Percent of Tesla Model X Reservations Converted to Orders" or some such nonsense.
     
  20. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter Active Member

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    Thanks for the great feedback. Disclaimers are surely in order at the very least. I may separate the topic and have the tracker graph of orders/deliveries off to themselves. Also got the legend up. Here's the most recent as of this morning.

    9-25-2015 8-33-50 AM.png
     

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