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To FSD or not..
- Thread starter BMax_V.2
- Start date
Here are my thoughts and considerations:
- First of all, you need to understand what FSD really means and set proper expectations. FSD is, and will remain, a set of driver assist features. Those features are explicitly listed on Tesla website. You may get more features than what's currently listed, but that's not part of the promise. It is certainly not going to be true Level-5 Autonomy. Tesla does not promise Level-5 autonomy as part of your FSD purchase. Laymen's terms definition of FSD given by Musk is this: "the car able to drive from one’s house to work, most likely without interventions".
- FSD is not fully implemented yet, most FSD features are currently in early Beta. And unless you really enjoy beta-testing, like some of us here, you probably will not be actively using them until they mature some more.
- I believe the progress with FSD will happen very quickly in the next 2-3 years. I think it will happen sooner than most expect. I am basing this on the progress with Autosteer that I personally observed. From a student driver level it matured to a very confident and reliable driver. And what's interesting, the improvement wasn't gradual. Most of it happened with a single update in early 2018. I expect to see similar overnight improvements to FSD once Tesla accumulates enough data from its fleet to train its Neural Network.
- To me, the FSD functionality (current and future) is one of the main reasons I wanted to have a Tesla in the first place, what makes it the best gadget in the world. But only you can decide whether the FSD functionality is important to you and is worth the price.
- If you strongly believe that you will want to have FSD in a couple of years when it becomes much more stable and reliable, then it makes sense to invest in it now before the price increase.
- FSD is transferable in a private sale and will somewhat increase the resale value of your car.
- For those who have AP HW 2.0 or 2.5 there is also an added benefit: you will get a computer upgrade with your FSD purchase.
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One thing to be aware of, if you purchase FSD today and get in a wreck that totals your car tomorrow your FSD is totaled too. You can not transfer it to another vehicle - there is no software license as such, its more like putting a set of upgraded wheels on your car, or getting all the windows tinted.
Make sure you add it to your insurance policy (which will probably increase your payments)
FSD was an easy pass for me, LR AWD was already the most expensive car purchase of my life.
LevelHeaded
Member
When mine updated to 2020.24.6.1 the 5mph over came back in city autopilot
LevelHeaded
Member
However, there are many reports of being paid out for FSD in total loss situations by insurance. The more valid point is that for resale purposes FSD doesn’t seem to hold its value as well as a vehicle does overall
powertoold
Active Member
mrbulk
Member
Actually what you describe is simply AP which comes standard on all new Teslas now except maybe the base Model 3 (the one you have to call in and speak to someone to order). If that's all you require then you should be good.
powertoold
Active Member
The $7K is better spent on other things. You'd get more enjoyment than playing with FSD. Plus, it's pretty fun to just drive the Y yourself, except for stop and go traffic or straight lines, which normal AP can already do.
If you wanna support Tesla's FSD development and want some cool features for your car that are improving rapidly, get FSD. We don't foresee reliable FSD for at least another year or two. By that time, your attention would be fixated on another cool Tesla product.
rxlawdude
Active Member
I just checked. the threat is very much real..
My account states:
Coming later this year:
- Recognize traffic lights and stop signs
- Automatic driving on city streets
I am fully convinced after 6 months with my Model 3 that the current camera/radar/ultrasonic sensor hardware will not do the job for FSD's promises to come true. There's obviously a lot of debate in the autonomous driving industry about what hardware will get it done for the right price and complexity, and I don't think there's a snowball's chance that Tesla has the right package in the current cars. I would bet there's going to be new hardware that won't retrofit, so I would never spend the $8K. And I believe the price hike is not because the product is closer to working as advertised, but a realization by Tesla that there are less "faithful" willing to pay for a forever-beta, so they need to charge more to those faithfuls to keep revenues up.
rxlawdude
Active Member
If you are expecting SAE Level 5 autonomy, you're right. Level 4 is plausible, Level 3 very much possible.
Thats a Great Point! Plus the rewards from that on most CC would be awesome
It's worth it to me, I mean these guys build rockets. Think of the SWE that goes into SpaceEx Rockets. Tesla is much of a Software Company as they are Manufacture. Tesla Tech Stack reminds me of the Airbus and Boeing Platforms, the automation that goes into these birds are amazing to the point where Pilots can fly and land these planes all by FC/AP systems. So yes, to me 7-8k is worth it. There are risks and but the payoff in this is the point why I wanted a Tesla in the first place.
As a software guy, I will take the exact opposite stance of DriveMe, above, in that I think it will progress more slowly than people anticipate. It has an awful long way to go in terms of reliability--my experience (opinion) is that Autosteer still basically sucks. My Tesla phantom brakes at everything, and does not work reliably under less than perfect conditions. I encourage you to think of it this way: Microsoft Word has been out for 37 years, and it still has bugs. The bugs won't kill you, but they're still there.
And then on top of this, you have potential legal, political, and financial problems layered on top of it when you're removing personal responsibility from a human driver.
Even with all of this, as a tech guy I am intrigued by the progress that has been made and don't mind paying for beta features if there is some value to be extracted. I just personally think it's already too expensive for what it offers and that inflection point isn't coming any time soon, and when you combine that with the fact that it's non-transferable (tied to the car, not the driver), it was an easy pass for me also.
And then on top of this, you have potential legal, political, and financial problems layered on top of it when you're removing personal responsibility from a human driver.
Even with all of this, as a tech guy I am intrigued by the progress that has been made and don't mind paying for beta features if there is some value to be extracted. I just personally think it's already too expensive for what it offers and that inflection point isn't coming any time soon, and when you combine that with the fact that it's non-transferable (tied to the car, not the driver), it was an easy pass for me also.
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