To Save or Not to Save - Delivery Estimator

[alseTrick]

Hi, everybody. Here is the latest situation about federal tax credits:

As of today, Tesla has sold 134,735 cars in the USA and they are expected to hit 200,000 USA sales on 20 Jan 2018 based on my calculation. According to the rules, if they hit 200K sales on any day in Q1 2018, full tax credits will continue until the end of Q2 3018. Therefore, the most likely scenario looks like this:

$7,500 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2018
$3,750 for deliveries until Dec 31, 2018
$1,875 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2019

In the future, for the latest info on this issue, you can open this page and scroll all the way to the right. If you want to check out the rules, open this page, scroll down and expand the phaseout section.

What production rate do you have for the 3 on January 20 and June 30, by chance?

Wait, does your link take into account the 3? Maybe I'm missing something.

 

[Troy]

@alseTrick,
Yes, it does. You can see the estimated Model 3 delivery numbers in column AM here. I need to process the S curve they showed last night. Therefore the numbers will change soon but they shouldn't change enough to make a difference. Hitting 200K on Jan1st or March 31st doesn't change the dates I just posted.

Current Model 3 estimates:
January 20, 2018: 49,901 produced. Daily production 236 units.
June 30, 2018: 191,741 produced. Daily production 351 units.
These numbers are from column G here (scroll down). However, I will update these based on the S curve.

My estimator is currently not accurate because it was based on what Elon had said here about AWD production dates. Now they added 6 months to that.

 

[alseTrick]

@alseTrick,
Yes, it does. You can see the estimates Model 3 delivery numbers in column AM here. I need to process the S curve they showed last night. Therefore the numbers will change soon but they shouldn't change enough to make a difference. Hitting 200K on Jan1st or March 31st doesn't change the dates I just posted.

Current Model 3 estimates:
January 20, 2018: 49,901 produced. Daily production 236 units.
June 30, 2018: 191,741 produced. Daily production 351 units.
These numbers are from column G here (scroll down). However, I will update these based on the S curve.

My estimator is currently not accurate because it was based on what Elon had said here about AWD production dates. Now they added 6 months to that.

Haha. On my phone. Didn't realize there was more info if i kept scrolling right.