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Tough Article in Sunday NYTimes

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I quite regularly drive my Roadster well beyond city limits. I think nothing of visiting LA from Sandyeggo (did it just yesterday) and have driven it to Santa Barbara for a conference twice. And I have lots of fun on the mountain roads nearby.

Yes, of course. I didn't mean to imply that Teslas were limited. I often dream of owning a long range EV to use for my longer trips, and just using the Volt for in-town driving. Ultimately replacing the Volt with a BlueStar.

So far, GM and Tesla are the only automakers providing extended range for EVs. Everyone else seem stuck in the sub-100 mi "low" cost city car paradigm.

GSP
 
......misleading (if not downright false) statements about the gov't spending billions on battery tech to be part of a "refreshing article" or "not perfect, but pretty good."? The vast majority of DOE loans under the program went to advanced ICE development and the results were not nearly as productive as what Tesla, Nissan and Ford did to advance EV technology....

In addition to the DOE loans for advanced technology vehicle manufacturing, there was a separate DOE *grant* program as part of the economic stimulus act. This money (several billion) went to product development and factories to produce vehicle traction batteries, motors and inverters for hybrids and EVs, not to R&D like past goverment funding.

GSP
 
I'm sorry but I respectfully disagree. OK, I agree with much of what you said in your second paragraph, but not the first.

The article is misleading in several respects. It focuses primarily on problems, exaggerating them in several instances, with very little commentary on how successful EVs have actually been. If I knew little about EVs, this article would steer me away from them. I'd like to know how you consider the misleading (if not downright false) statements about the gov't spending billions on battery tech to be part of a "refreshing article" or "not perfect, but pretty good."? The vast majority of DOE loans under the program went to advanced ICE development and the results were not nearly as productive as what Tesla, Nissan and Ford did to advance EV technology. But the article leaves the reader thinking the opposite. The very absence of comparisons such as this make the article lacking of credibility.

Yes there are worse articles, but I don't think that makes this one "refreshing" or good. Just my .02 and I hope my criticism doesn't discourage you from posting what you think...

No worries, I'm not new to criticism. :)

I don't see how saying that the gov't has spent billions on battery tech is misleading or false? True, it's more like $2-3 billion than many billions, but it's not a false statement based on the various grant/loan announcements. There are a number of obvious ones in there: Saft, A123, Ener1, Nissan, etc., as well as myriad smaller projects that were awarded single-digit millions of dollars each.

It's true that the general public could be discouraged by the article, especially if they only read the first half. But to paint a rosy picture would be false too. There are good things going on in the industry, but the perception of them has been diminished by bad press both "earned" and not. I'd much rather see realistic voices recalibrate expectations while also reinforcing that the challenges don't in any way detract from the merit of the effort, so that the wins can actually be perceived as such.

As for what Ford's done to advance EV technology....still waiting to see it.
 
As for what Ford's done to advance EV technology....still waiting to see it.

It's an article about the Volt, and mostly the pessimistic side. Where are the reports about happy owners? The Leaf gets a short mention as "struggling" in the market, but it has sold more in 2011 than the Volt. Most I hear from Leaf owners is they are indeed quite happy with them, except for the absence of promised fast chargers. (Might be changed by those "corrupt" efforts.) Tesla is only enumerated in the category for rich technophiles who also have ICEs, even though Model S is coming around the corner, which may go a long way towards changing the requirement of an ICE, for the kind of sedan in a price class which you actually see quite a lot on the street. Instead the article mentions lots of stupid arguments that were launched against the Volt. OK, realistic recalibrating, now what's the "refreshing" part?
 
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I don't see how saying that the gov't has spent billions on battery tech is misleading or false? True, it's more like $2-3 billion than many billions, but it's not a false statement based on the various grant/loan announcements. There are a number of obvious ones in there: Saft, A123, Ener1, Nissan, etc., as well as myriad smaller projects that were awarded single-digit millions of dollars each.
It's false by omission of the benefits. It suggests that we've gone nowhere because prices are still high despite spending billions. In fact prices have fallen considerably, density has increased, and I've spoken with patent holders who have demonstrated easy-to-manufacture Li batteries with 2x current density and lifespan. A week doesn't go by without a new announcement of some breakthrough. Not all of them will pan out but some will and the article is misleading by ignoring that.

It's true that the general public could be discouraged by the article, especially if they only read the first half. But to paint a rosy picture would be false too. There are good things going on in the industry, but the perception of them has been diminished by bad press both "earned" and not. I'd much rather see realistic voices recalibrate expectations while also reinforcing that the challenges don't in any way detract from the merit of the effort, so that the wins can actually be perceived as such.
It's true that we need to have credible, realistic expectations, and not try to hide real faults. However, by far most of the bad press has not been earned. Most of it is based on obsolete or just plain false information, or motivated by an opposing financial interest. Now it's being used for political advantage by people exploiting the public's fear and misunderstanding of EVs.
 
It's an article about the Volt, and mostly the pessimistic side. Where are the reports about happy owners? The Leaf gets a short mention as "struggling" in the market, but it has sold more in 2011 than the Volt. Most I hear from Leaf owners is they are indeed quite happy with them, except for the absence of promised fast chargers. (Might be changed by those "corrupt" efforts.) Tesla is only enumerated in the category for rich technophiles who also have ICEs, even though Model S is coming around the corner, which may go a long way towards changing the requirement of an ICE, for the kind of sedan in a price class which you actually see quite a lot on the street. Instead the article mentions lots of stupid arguments that were launched against the Volt. OK, realistic recalibrating, now what's the "refreshing" part?

Yes, the article is mainly about the Volt. But the Volt is the most visible plug-in vehicle at the moment and the subject of the most negative press, so that didn't surprise me.

It's true that the happy owners piece is missing for all of the vehicles. But the automakers have also mostly missed that piece in their marketing and public comments. Ironically, GM has been the most vocal on customer satisfaction, but most of what they say is disregarded in general unless it's useful fodder for Rush Limbaugh.

The Leaf sold more than Volt in 2011, yes. (They are about equal now.) But it still fell nearly 2/3 short of the 25,000 unit goal that Nissan expressed. It was never a realistic goal, and Nissan never should have said it- but putting that out there makes Leaf sales look anemic by comparison. I have the same issues with GM (for 2012), Coda, Fisker and Tesla. All have expressed sales goals at some point that aren't going to happen, and it behooves us to be the first ones to say that rather than let the opposition media treat it like a story they "broke" later.

As for rich technofiles...EVs have always been seen that way, and even the $40k Volt takes a ton of heat for it now. Unfortunately, that's not really going to change with Model S. It's true that it's a more accessible price range, but still out of reach for the average buyer. And that's ok- lots of gas cars aren't "affordable" either. I usually have more luck not trying to contest the "more expensive" point; new technology is more expensive, and costs will come down. They haven't yet, in a way that's visible to consumers- and part of what we have to do is balance the tension between consumer enthusiasm that EVs are coming and the frustration that they're not available everywhere or affordable to everyone yet. But the benefit to this plug-in generation is the the variety within it- from an iMiEV that's in the high teens or low twenties after incentives through six-digit vehicles. I also still frequently remind people that it's important to contact automakers and ask for what they want in a plug-in vehicle- to express support for the idea, even if their dream car hasn't been announced yet.

I found the article refreshing because it attempted to talk about some of the challenges without resorting to the usual stable of curmudgeons who tend not to articulate anything more substantive than "EVs suck"... because of coal, or President Obama likes them, or whatever. Whether I agree with it or not, I'd rather see someone who has earned his point of view by doing the work than simply having a contrarian point of view for the sake of it. It's also a novelty to see an article acknowledge that everything won't be rosy, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be doing this. There was a little bit of "not because is is easy, but because it is hard" in there that I think is very much needed amongst all of the rhetoric about EVs being a national imperative. The industry needs help, and buyers in the market stage we're in (not the mass market automakers tend to think we're in) will rise to that challenge. You all prove it every day.
 
It's false by omission of the benefits. It suggests that we've gone nowhere because prices are still high despite spending billions. In fact prices have fallen considerably, density has increased, and I've spoken with patent holders who have demonstrated easy-to-manufacture Li batteries with 2x current density and lifespan. A week doesn't go by without a new announcement of some breakthrough. Not all of them will pan out but some will and the article is misleading by ignoring that.

There have indeed been improvements and promising announcements. It will still be a while before we know if and how soon some will scale into vehicle production. But from a market perspective (ie, visible to media/consumers) battery prices are still high, and have not fallen meaningfully yet in spite of the investments. That's not a false statement. But those making the argument do need reminding that it is unrealistic to expect that battery prices would have already visibly fallen as a result of the DoE investments, given that they were mainly awarded to projects at lab stages or manufacturing facilities- both of which take time to progress. And battery plants can only produce as fast as OEMs want to sell cars, so the potential for manufacturing economies of scale is externally limited. On a variety of fronts, we need to extend the timeline of people's expectations- it will be years before we know the impact of the current investments.

It's true that we need to have credible, realistic expectations, and not try to hide real faults. However, by far most of the bad press has not been earned. Most of it is based on obsolete or just plain false information, or motivated by an opposing financial interest. Now it's being used for political advantage by people exploiting the public's fear and misunderstanding of EVs.

Totally agree that most of the bad press hasn't been earned. Didn't say otherwise- but the industry has contributed somewhat, mainly through poor communications and/or marketing. Some automakers more than others, but whether it's been overly-optimistic sales/range/mpg numbers, poor communication about technical issues (or invented technical issues, as in the case of the "brick" story), delivery delays, plant closings, etc., or ineffective- even crappy- marketing that not only doesn't inspire buyers but confuses and discourages them, the industry has gotten in its own way more than I'd like. And that's without adding the layers of the roles utilities, charger providers, policymakers and other facets of the "industry". But besides allowing them to continue and be repeated as other automakers ramp up, not acknowledging these things only reinforces the media perception that the only failure is in the market. We saw that movie once, where for years the story was "automakers and policymakers tried as hard as they could, but just could not get consumers to want these cars". We know better.
 
I don't see how saying that the gov't has spent billions on battery tech is misleading or false? True, it's more like $2-3 billion than many billions, but it's not a false statement based on the various grant/loan announcements. There are a number of obvious ones in there: Saft, A123, Ener1, Nissan, etc., as well as myriad smaller projects that were awarded single-digit millions of dollars each.

But a "Loan" is not spending.

When people write about EVs and how much the government "spends" on them, I want them to contrast that with how much we spend on oil (and propping up Wall St, as well). Otherwise it is a one sided hit piece.
 
It was spending for Solindra! It's spending until repaid.
No it's not. Spending is buying a tank. Exchanging cash for a good. You're not speculating in the tank's future value.

A loan is a speculative investment where you may or may not make a gain. Unless you're going with a definition so perverse you say you're "spending" when put money into your bank's savings account. After all, a savings account is really just a loan to the bank, which is why you get an interest rate return on that loan.
 
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No it's not. Spending is buying a tank. Exchanging cash for a good. You're not speculating in the tank's future value.

A loan is a speculative investment where you may or may not make a gain. Unless you're going with a definition so perverse you say you're "spending" when put money into your bank's savings account. After all, a savings account is really just a loan to the bank, which is why you get an interest rate return on that loan.

The government spent tax dollars, or printed money which hurts all of us for a promise to be repaid in the future. The investment became a loss when the promise for repayment was broken.
 
The government spent tax dollars, or printed money which hurts all of us for a promise to be repaid in the future. The investment became a loss when the promise for repayment was broken.
"Hurts all of us"? Taking on a debt isn't inherently bad, it just affects the value decision.

If you want to simply trade complaints about government spending decisions, the GOP started two simultaneous wars I'm really incredibly pissed we ever spent a dollar on. We could afford tens of thousands of Solyndra's with that money.
 
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Whether I agree with it or not, I'd rather see someone who has earned his point of view by doing the work than simply having a contrarian point of view for the sake of it.

I've read the whole thing again. I think the author did only half the work, if even that. So much is missing, and so much over-emphasized (not just the Volt itself). Are we to give plus points for NYT journalistic sophistication and the fact that a Volt engineer and Chris Paine came to word? Not sure whether that makes it better or worse. Take this sentence as an example, opening the final breath of the article:

But one possible culprit still stands to gain if the electric car is killed yet again, Mr. Paine suggested.

They got poor Chris to the point where he sounds like the end is near. Compare that to the triumphal ending of ROTEC.

This is the key sentence of the article:

Yet the state of the electric car is dismal, the victim of hyped expectations, technological flops, high costs and a hostile political climate.

This is just the academic version of Rush Limbaugh. If you want, we can take the article apart piece for piece. Most people, even on the partisan far right, believe the electric car will come some day. They just believe that day is far. So does this article.
 
There have indeed been improvements and promising announcements. It will still be a while before we know if and how soon some will scale into vehicle production. But from a market perspective (ie, visible to media/consumers) battery prices are still high, and have not fallen meaningfully yet in spite of the investments. That's not a false statement.
It *is* a false statement. While it is true that battery prices are still high, it is false that they have not fallen meaningfully. It's only a few years since lithium ion batteries cost $1000/kWh - while the Model S battery now costs around $400/kWh. That's a 60% reduction in the blink of an eye! If gas prices fell from $4/US gallon to $1.6/US gallon, there would be people dancing in the streets. And prices are projected to halve in the next 5-10 years. That is not a long wait - that is so fast that it can (and probably will) revolutionize automotive transportation.

I would say it's almost a problem how fast battery prices are dropping. It leads to fairly high rates of depreciation on batteries, and discourages potential buyers.Who can blame them? If a 100 kWh battery costs $40,000 today, why shouldn't they wait 5 years until they can get the same battery for $20,000? $20,000 in gasoline will get you quite a few miles.
 
"Hurts all of us"? Taking on a debt isn't inherently bad, it just affects the value decision.

If you want to simply trade complaints about government spending decisions, the GOP started two simultaneous wars I'm really incredibly pissed we ever spent a dollar on. We could afford tens of thousands of Solyndra's with that money.

Printing money beyond the governments income (taxes) only devalues the dollar and our savings. When the Chinese no longer wish to purchase our debt, what will we do?

BTW, I never mentioned politics or party! The decision to send troops is another topic not for here.
 
The government spent tax dollars, or printed money which hurts all of us for a promise to be repaid in the future. The investment became a loss when the promise for repayment was broken.
You and ckessel are both right to some degree. When you loan money you are most definitely buying something. You're buying an investment with a potential return. In this case the government was making loans at below market rates. And that is spending taxpayer money, but only to the extent that the interest rate was below market, which was a lot considering the risks. The government did this knowing full well that they probably wouldn't get all of it back, and even accounted for that.

What exactly were they buying? The stated purpose of the Bush Administration when they appropriated funds, and the same with Obama when they allocated, was not to steer markets because they knew better than private industry as Rush, Glenn Beck and others insinuate. It was to save money, a LOT of money in this case. And create domestic jobs.

It is ultimately taxpayers and citizens that have to pay for the almost endless externalities associated with burning fossil fuels. Massive pollution. Climate change. Military experiments. Choking smog. The price is or will be beyond anything you can imagine. Few would argue that we won't get our money's worth on some discounted interest and a few defaults right now. Better if the oil industry could be forced to pay but their incentives make it impossible. Their job is to make money and they're doing a good job of it.
 
But a "Loan" is not spending.

True. But the economic stimulus *grants* are spending. They are just as real, and if you spend a billion here and a billion there, pretty soon you are talking about a meaningful amount of money!

I am supportive of the grants. The recipients had to match the Feds investment with their own funds as well. I am also supportive of the advanced vehicle manufacturing loans. But it is not right to say there were no grants.

GSP
 
As cited a couple times through this thread, what bothers me most about this article is the unbalanced pro's vs con's of EV's. To that point, the article mentions alot about the charging infrastructure being such a huge deal. Yes, you can't "easily" take an EV (even one with range capabilities like Tesla) on long road trips because of where and how long to recharge. But, for the majority of people, the majority of driving is done fairly locally, not needing what the article tends to imply as a major overhaul of a national system which is providing a huge roadblock to the development of EV's.

How much would it cost a gas station to put a 220V line at the side of their building and EV owners pay $10 (I'm just spewing out a number here) to throw the switch for a few hours. Talk about infrastructure that is already in place. Instead of spending billions on some sort of nationwide charging network, use a network that already exists. If the oil companies won't alow their stations to do it, hotels could do the same thing, or convenience stores, etc.

I'd really like to see articles explain that yes, EV's right now aren't for long trips for the most part. They are for the majority of the driving that a majority of people do, saving them in gas and energy costs forthe long haul. Moving forward, as more independent and franchised gas stations, hotels, convenience stores, etc. add electric charging options, and battery prices come down and battery technology (range) improves, the national infrastructure will delvelop.

Wish more article writers would see this (or at least choose to express it).