Toyota 'Mirai' Fuel Cell Sedan

[dauger]

Yes, Toyota money has CARB favoring a car made in Japan by a Japanese company over a superior California made car by a Californian Company.

It is insane. ... it sure does PMO.

I agree. How about send some feedback to the CARB? They have mechanisms to accept Public Comments on specific agenda items:

Decisions Pending and Opportunities for Public Participation
http://www.arb.ca.gov/lispub/comm/bclist.php

As well as trying to get in on their hearings:

California Air Resources Board - 2015 Board Meeting Dates

There's one in El Monte next Thursday. FCVs are just one of many topics CARB deals with, so the comments need to be focused on that particular agenda item or activity, such as here:

California Hydrogen Activities
Hydrogen Fueling Infrastructure Assessments

CARB wouldn't look on the TMC forums for comments. What would happen if they got a direct complaint?

 

[cwerdna]

Anyone know off the top of their head whether the Mirai "sales stop" is still in effect?

Don't know but there are US sales charts at [Correction] February 2016 Sales Chart | Corporate and December 2015 Sales Chart | Corporate.

From the above, they moved 30 in Feb 2016 and 56 for 2016 CYTD, so I guess not. For all the months it was available in 2015, they moved 72 that year.

You can see the rest of Toyota's US sales figures there.

For more context/comparison, one can consult February 2016 YTD U.S. Vehicle Sales Rankings - Top 274 Best-Selling Vehicles In America - Every Vehicle Ranked - GOOD CAR BAD CAR and 2015 Year End U.S. Vehicle Sales Rankings - Top 288 Best-Selling Vehicles In America - Every Vehicle Ranked - GOOD CAR BAD CAR.

 

[dauger]

I found someone to work on: Mary Nichols, Chairman of the CARB:

Mary Nichols Shares the Joys of a Hydrogen Fuel Cell Ride - Los Angeles Magazine

She has a Honda Fit EV too. This was one of only two recent articles I found about Mirai. The other:

2017 Honda Clarity FCV: Tesla Model 3 To Inflict Mirai Death! DailySun

refreshingly pronounces the Mirai dead: "The 2016 Mirai didn’t get a chance to show us whether hydrogen propulsion will lead the way for the future of electrification because it died so soon due to lack of charging station availability."

 

[vinnie97]

An unelected bureaucrat with no shame, she would be the last person to listen to EV advocacy.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I found someone to work on: Mary Nichols, Chairman of the CARB:

Mary Nichols Shares the Joys of a Hydrogen Fuel Cell Ride - Los Angeles Magazine

She has a Honda Fit EV too. This was one of only two recent articles I found about Mirai.

Mary Nichols is notoriously pro-FCV, so there is no convincing her. She was at the forefront pushing for them whenever they are challenged (for example when Chu cut hydrogen funding at the federal level).

I think at this point it is easier to let them die a natural death and push for more funding on EV side (at least matching that of hydrogen; if they get $400 million in hydrogen stations, we should get $400 million in charging stations too).

 

[McRat]

Best I can figure from this wildly optimistic 2013 document, is that H2 refueling costs are not going to keep up with EV technology development:

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/56412.pdfhttp://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/56412.pdf

$1 million for a small station was an estimate. But I've read that actual costs were closer to $2.5 million per small station by the time fuel was dispensed.

Toyota estimates that it costs 17 cents per mile for the H2 fuel to be pumped into a compact car (no taxes, capital costs, or profit).

To put that in perspective, it costs 11 cents per mile to refuel a GMC Sierra 3500 SRW 4x4 diesel in California. That's an 8,020lb curb weight 5 passenger heavy duty pickup.

But that 11 cents includes taxes, capitalization costs, and profit.

How stupid are these guys? In the real world it will cost twice as much to fuel a compact FCEV as a freakin' Escalade.

 

[alicesanders]

I want to purchase Toyota 'Mirai'.Can anyone tell me details about it?I will be very happy if anyone tell me about this.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I want to purchase Toyota 'Mirai'.Can anyone tell me details about it?I will be very happy if anyone tell me about this.

You should visit your local Toyota dealership, that way you'll be able to see the vehicle for yourself and test it out instead of relying on the words of people on a forum.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

You should visit your local Toyota dealership, that way you'll be able to see the vehicle for yourself and test it out instead of relying on the words of people on a forum.

Well, her local dealership would have to be in CA, and one of only 8 allowed to sell the vehicle. That said, I don't believe she would have the opportunity to purchase/lease one until next year...right?

 

[Grendal]

I want to purchase Toyota 'Mirai'.Can anyone tell me details about it?I will be very happy if anyone tell me about this.

Toyota might sell you one. It will be very hard to do. They are much more interested in leasing it to you, if and only if, you are the right type of customer.

Good luck.

 

[S'toon]

I want to purchase Toyota 'Mirai'.Can anyone tell me details about it?I will be very happy if anyone tell me about this.

Toyota has asked their dealers in the US to stop selling them, so you may be out of luck.

Toyota To Select Dealers: Stop Delivering The Mirai, There Is Nowhere To Refuel

<snip>

Now, Jim Lentz, CEO of Toyota North America, has a solution in those places where the Mirai can’t refuel easily, or perhaps where those temporary stations are now over-run with the 72 Mirai that have “flown off the shelf“ in 2015.

Stop selling them.

<snip>

Toyota To Select Dealers: Stop Delivering The Mirai, There Is Nowhere To Refuel - Inside EVs

 

[Gerardf]

I want to purchase Toyota 'Mirai'.Can anyone tell me details about it?I will be very happy if anyone tell me about this.

Inform yourself very well about where to fuel, how much range you can fuel there (700 bar or 300 bar pressure) and how long you might have to wait fuel.

It is not easy to find active forums about that, here is one I sometimes read on by some active users of the Hyundai and their real-life experiences.

Log into Facebook | Facebook

But not all FC stations can be used by the Mirai (quote below from that FB site, Feb 15th post) :
It is also important to note that the mirai can only be fueled at retail stations, not the demo ones like the Hyundai can so they can use even fewer stations.

 

[cwerdna]

Toyota Mirai Covers 100,000 km (62,000 miles) In 107 Days

Toyota’s new hydrogen fuel cell car, the Mirai, has successfully completed its 100,000 kilometre European road test. The test started on 21st September 2015 and finished on 10th February 2016. Every day for 107 days, the Mirai was on the road for 16 hours. During its 100,000 kilometre journey, the car was refuelled nearly 400 times with just over 1000 kg of hydrogen, its tyres changed twice, and its front brake pads replaced. No mechanical breakdowns were reported.

KJ Tech Services Project Manager Patrick Hake said:

“The Mirai performed excellently with no mechanical breakdowns. The fuel cell operated with 100% reliability. This was also the case during a week in which the outside temperature dropped to minus 20 degrees Centigrade, when no problems with cold starts were reported.”

TOYOTA MIRAI SUCCESSFULLY COMPLETES LONG-DISTANCE EUROPEAN ROAD TEST Toyota’s new hydrogen-powered car is driven for 16 hours a day for 107 days in a demanding road test in Germany

 

[JohnSnowNW]

If they had done this in CA, the cost of the H2 alone would have been $15,000, @ $15/kg.

A 2016 Prius, @ 53mpg, in CA, would cost $3,263, @ $2.79/gallon, to go the same distance.

So, uhh, great that it went 62,000 miles without breaking down...but reliability is the least of the Mirai's problems.

 

[BluestarE3]

Responsibility for the road test was given to KJ Tech Services GmbH of Hamburg. Toyota specified the total distance the Mirai should cover, as well as the amount of time spent on different types of road: in the city, on rural roads, on motorways, and on German autobahns with no speed limit. To meet these specifications, KJ Tech Services carefully calculated a single route in and around Hamburg, and organised a team of eight drivers working in two shifts per day, six days a week.

So what did they do, drive around in a circular route around Hamburg and refuel at the one and only available hydrogen fuel station?

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

So what did they do, drive around in a circular route around Hamburg and refuel at the one and only available hydrogen fuel station?

Don't be daft now, there were 2 entire stations! /s

In all seriousness, it seems Germany's actually serious about H2 as there are quite a few stations in operation and planned. It's a huge waste of money, but at least they can actually drive across state lines.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Don't be daft now, there were 2 entire stations! /s

In all seriousness, it seems Germany's actually serious about H2 as there are quite a few stations in operation and planned. It's a huge waste of money, but at least they can actually drive across state lines.

Well, since Germany orchestrated the removal of the EU H2 station mandate...I'm not sure how serious they are.

 

[dauger]

A new report by IHS Automotive:

Global Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Market Buoyed as OEMs Will Launch 17 Vehicle Models by 2027, IHS Says | IHS Online Newsroom

"While FCEVs have the advantage of short refueling times and long range, there is still the problem of hydrogen refueling infrastructure. ... EV charging stations are relatively inexpensive, whereas a hydrogen refueling station can cost more than $3 million (USD)."

Is discussed here:

IHS Forecasts Empty Future For Toyota Mirai, Unlike Clarity

"the 2027 forecast for hydrogen propulsion vehicles stand at only over 70,000 sales. ... less than 1 percent of the automotive market by then. ... Right now, the Mirai scares off many buyers because of its $57,500 price tag, the lack of charging infrastructure support, and how unsightly it is."

The press release summarizes the $7760 report well.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

"the 2027 forecast for hydrogen propulsion vehicles stand at only over 70,000 sales. ... less than 1 percent of the automotive market by then. ... Right now, the Mirai scares off many buyers because of its $57,500 price tag

Hah, if they're scared away by that price, wait until they see what Toyota would have to sell it for to break even.

 

[RubberToe]

Great news everyone!

Per this full page ad in todays L.A. Times, The future of transportation is available now!

The free fuel for 3 years is however subject to a $15,000 maximum per the fine print. Lets see now, I can't use more than $5,000 of fuel per year. Toyota's new prius gets 55MPG combined. Gas at the corner is running $3.25 per gallon. A new 2016 Prius could then drive 84,615 miles on that same $5,000. Not clear if the Mirai will get you 84,615 miles, but if the Mirai goes 312 EPA range per fill-up, those 84,615 miles would require 271 fill-ups. Either the Mirai chews up a lot of expensive fuel, or they don't expect people to drive around too much. Maybe when the network of filling stations in California triples to 18, the cost will scale down by a factor or 100 or so.

Not sure, someone better with numbers please help me out here. After all, this is The Future of Transportation, so it must be a very compelling car and value proposition!

RT

P.S. Man, the Emperor truly has no clothes on. Could someone please let the Emperor know this? This is getting awfully embarrassing. How long will this go on for?