Tracking progress of EVs into Hong Kong

[DITB]

Some reference here : EV Sales: Hong Kong

Tesla's figure is not accurate but if the other makes are, we can do some arithmetic.

The numbers are totally wrong! Pure guesswork.

Only 10 Tesla deliveries in February? It's a lot more than that, maybe even 5-10 times as much.

It does say "estimate" next to the Tesla Motors figures. Well, that estimate is way too low. Look under "October 2014" - it says 38 Model S YTD. When I got my Model S in September, there were more than 38 Model S - delivered in ONE WEEKEND!

On the launch day itself in July - 8 Model S were delivered. Maybe he is using the list I made in these forums of "Model S delivery Tally in HK" - but that is just a fraction of actual deliveries.

With those guesses being far off the actual sales, he should rather write "N/A" or some more realistic estimate. There are at least 1000 Model S on the streets of HK now. So if you multiply his estimates by 20 (twenty) it might be more realistic.

WHY ON EARTH Tesla Motors find it so important to mask their actual sales is beyond my understanding. Is it to protect the share value? Are they afraid of what the competition would make of it?

Just from writing down license plate registrations, we had more than 350 Model S in HK by December 2014 - and we probably didn't even have half of the ones that were, as we kept seeing new Model S registrations. In the local club, there are now 8 people with Model S, at work there are several - they are all over the place. In the city, some times you look around (from your Model S) and see several Model S - at the same time!

 

[jsiu]

I always have a conflicting feeling of the increase in numbers of EV. From environmental point of view, i am looking forward to more EV especially public transports such as buses. On the contrary, if the charging facilities especially SC do not keep up with the growth of EV, more EV could mean more difficulties in charging. Although many government car parks are installed with charging facilities, these charging lots are often occupied by ICE vehicles instead.

 

[markwj]

I've managed to put together some excellent sources for this data, now. Still crunching the numbers but hopefully should be able to post some definitive historical figures within the next few weeks.

 

[lx3h]

I've managed to put together some excellent sources for this data, now. Still crunching the numbers but hopefully should be able to post some definitive historical figures within the next few weeks.

Any chance we can see an update of the Excel chart on page 1? It would be nice to see the gradient.

 

[lx3h]

April 2015

As at end of April 2015, there are 2116 EVs for road use, up from less than 100 in end 2010. At present, 40 EV models from seven countries have been type-approved by the Transport Department (TD). These include 27 models for private cars and motorcycles, 13 models for public transport and commercial vehicles.


Promotion of Electric Vehicles in Hong Kong | Environmental Protection Department

 

[lx3h]

May 2015

As at end of May 2015, there are 2246 EVs for road use, up from less than 100 in end 2010. At present, 40 EV models from seven countries have been type-approved by the Transport Department (TD). These include 27 models for private cars and motorcycles, 13 models for public transport and commercial vehicles.


+130
http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/prob_solutions/promotion_ev.html

 

[lx3h]

Progress of EV in Hong Kong

Picking up where Mark left off.

 

[deku]

Look at the curve, and remember Tesla model S start delivery in July 2014. Extrapolating the flat curve before Tesla start delivery, there is about 700 non-model S only. So, of those 2246, I think at least 1400 of them are model S. I saw less than 10 leafs on the roads in a year but I saw 4-5 models s on the roads everyday

 

[lx3h]

Latest Estimates And Actual EV Counts

I have written a blog article on EV progress using numbers from the EPD, as well as estimating very roughly the number of registered Tesla's in Hong Kong.

Auto & Opinions: Hong Kong's EV Development feat. The Issue of ICE Vehicles Occupying Charging Spots

http://lockyep.blogspot.hk/2015/07/auto-opinions-hong-kongs-ev-development.html

Here is the latest counts from EPD, note the steep increment in numbers since Tesla Model S arrives in Hong Kong in July 2014.

 

[lx3h]

July 2015

As at end of July 2015, there are 2465 EVs for road use, up from less than 100 in end 2010. At present, 44 EV models from seven countries have been type-approved by the Transport Department (TD).

http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/prob_solutions/promotion_ev.html

 

[lx3h]

June 2015 Exact Numbers Updated, 146 EV added

 

[gubes]

Electric vehicles make more sense in HK than just about any place in the world given the huge difference in FRT, high fuel costs, short distances travelled and a pretty high penetration of EV parking spaces and highest per capita existence of Tesla superchargers. The Model X will be EXTREMELY popular here you watch. Just take a look at the number of Alphards around here. Lots of people with drivers. Fuel costs are pretty high for those things especially when you consider the extra kms. The Model X will take a huge share of that market. Then when the Model 3 comes out, the numbers will take another step up in growth.

Of course all this can change if the government revises its FRT holiday on EVs in a few years time. The fact that they might increase it only stimulates more demand now as it secures a better re-sale.

Also, Audi, BMW and Mercedes will be launching more pure EVs soon. It is going to be huge here.

 

[markwj]

Gubes, I agree with your optimism.

The #1 quoted concern with EVs is Range Anxiety, and that quite simply does not exist in Hong Kong.

If it wasn't for the charging infrastructure, and vehicle model availability, I am convinced we would be seeing 50%+ of new sales with a plug (compared to the current 6%), at least in the private car space.

For commercial vehicles, and public transportation, we still have a long way to go, and that is where the biggest impact will be made. My postman drives a Nissan Leaf on his route, but I suspect his car is one of just a very few.

 

[jsiu]

I start to worry whether the improvement in charging facilities can cope with the increase in EV.

Electric vehicles make more sense in HK than just about any place in the world given the huge difference in FRT, high fuel costs, short distances travelled and a pretty high penetration of EV parking spaces and highest per capita existence of Tesla superchargers. The Model X will be EXTREMELY popular here you watch. Just take a look at the number of Alphards around here. Lots of people with drivers. Fuel costs are pretty high for those things especially when you consider the extra kms. The Model X will take a huge share of that market. Then when the Model 3 comes out, the numbers will take another step up in growth.

Of course all this can change if the government revises its FRT holiday on EVs in a few years time. The fact that they might increase it only stimulates more demand now as it secures a better re-sale.

Also, Audi, BMW and Mercedes will be launching more pure EVs soon. It is going to be huge here.

 

[markwj]

I start to worry whether the improvement in charging facilities can cope with the increase in EV.

Certainly the difference in user experience between those that have home/workplace charging, and those that rely on public charging, is dramatic.

The hope is that home/workplace charging will get easier, leaving public charging becoming purely opportunistic.

 

[gubes]

Commercial Vehicles is the big opportunity. In fact one of the Tesla co-founders set up a company in the US to convert garbage trucks and other commercial vehicles to electric vehicles (plug in hybrids). Without subsidy they make a decent payback on the additional outlay of retrofitting these vehicles with electric drive-trains.

I wouldn't rely on the HK government to proactively move its commercial fleet to electric any time soon on the grounds of lower emmissions. However, if battery costs continue to decline (currently around US$250/kwh) to <US$150/kwh, it starts making commercial sense to move to electrification of commercial vehicles as the running cost savings pay back the additional capital outlay in a short enough period of time.

Based on the work we have done, we conclude that battery costs will hit that level in the next 7-10 years.

 

[lx3h]

Agree with you all. I do hope that Charged HK will get to meet the government officials again before the FRT waiver ends because Model X and III delivery will surely be encouraged or hindered by the decisions of FRT waiver. From the numbers, we have just got a good start and whether the best is yet to come, this FRT will be a determinant.

 

[Vmax]

FRT will make or break EVs in Hong Kong.

 

[lx3h]

This is a very nicely written article

善用科技改善交通 （å‰ç·šç§‘技人員è*°æ”¿å°çµ„æˆå“¡ã€€è³€ç©Žå‚‘） | 蘋果日å*± | è¦èžæ¸¯èž | 20150824

In short, the author argues that FRT waiver alone is not enough to truly promote the switch from ICE to EV. He used NY's 2020 plan to swap 1/3 of taxi to EV as an example and compares that to the situation in HK, complains the no-change-is-the-best-tactic approach adopted by the HK government and the paucity of charging stations in car parks.

IMO, with the total number of EV being just 2279 in June 2015 and a total of 776,702 vehicles in the entire Hong Kong (0.29% of cars in HK are EVs), FRT waiver not only shouldn't be expired, it should be extended, and on top of that, FRT for ICE should be increase by 50% and vehicle license renewal by 100%. Then people either not buy any cars or buy EVs instead of ICE. Older ICE will be phased out.

"

善用科技改善交通
（前線科技人員議政小組成員　賀穎傑）

近來因為警方封舖拉人一事，Uber的議題炒得鬧哄哄，無論是從經濟學層面，從科技層面還是從政策層面，各路人馬都已經深入分析過。但從其他國家以科技改善交通的方法來看，除了Uber以外，還有多個選擇可供香港參考：
一是強制安裝RFID隧道收費系統。不錯，香港的快易通Autotoll已經有超過二十年歷史，但時至今日仍然是依賴車主個別付費申請。事實上，今天各條主要隧道仍然只有二至三條行車線供快易通使用，其餘大部份行車線使用人手收費，導致在繁忙時間，很多時使用快易通的車龍比人手收費還要長，令原本是節省時間的系統發揮不到原來功效。在很多國家，例如台灣自2014年起，已經強制所有汽車安裝RFID收費系統，完全取代人手收費，節省不少時間。

電子道路收費減車輛數量

二是電子道路收費系統。最近有位前政府規劃師提議，取消中環的電車路以減少中環的交通擠塞情況，弄得滿城風雨。環顧世界各大都會，市中心交通擠塞都是常態，取消電車讓路私家車是明顯腦殘的建議，正確方向是減少私家車並鼓勵更多人搭公共交通工具，要達成這個效果，暫時最有效的方法是引入電子道路收費系統，成功的例子有倫敦及新加坡。香港研究電子道路收費少說也有三十年歷史，直至今天還是在初步研究階段，政府難道要等埋發叔？
三是自動平衡車。自從Segway於2002年推出新穎的自動平衡車，經過多年發展，現在很多中國品牌都有「參考」推出類近產品（內地俗稱風火輪），而且發展到不比一塊普通滑板大多少，價錢平至幾百元有交易，如能充份利用，絕對能夠滿足一般人的短途行程（三公里以內），減低對路面車輛的需求。可是，香港運輸署對自動平衡車的立場都是一味禁止，十年如一日，從來未有想過如何納入正規，充份利用以改善交通。相反，其他很多城市已經把Segway等自動平衡車納入規管並容許在行人路使用（例如瑞典及德國），或至少在特定區域（例如遊客區）容許使用。
四是電動車。根據最新統計，自上年打入香港車場以來，Tesla已經賣出超過一千輛電動車，把香港的電動車總數提升了兩倍。的確，Tesla電動車無論在歐美還是在香港都是最引領潮流的品牌，電動車環保零排放，而且技術日漸成熟，確實是大勢所趨。香港政府雖然有一定措施支援電動車，例如減免首次登記稅，但在力度上仍然遠遠不夠。紐約市正推動在2020年前，把市內三分之一的士換成電動車，而香港的士業仍然被困於高污染的石油氣車。現時電動車普及最大的障礙是充電設施不足，政府應該做的是要求新落成樓宇需於每個車位提供充電設施，而非在整個停車場數百個車位只提供幾個聊表意思。這是政府「適度有為」的大好時機，政府去了哪裏？
由此可見，科技的發展確實可以在多方面改善香港的交通情況，可是，香港政府的態度卻有如老僧入定，不動如山。以上提到的方法，全部都是成熟的技術，並且很多大城市在實行當中，如果香港政府有心改善民生，隨時可以坐言起行，絕對無需要等埋創科局。




賀穎傑
前線科技人員議政小組成員

賀穎傑"

 

[lx3h]

EV Numbers and Growth In Hong Kong As Of June/July 2015

Proper write-up and numbers updated

http://lockyep.blogspot.com/2015/09/auto-environment-ev-numbers-and-growth.html