Trade war and Tesla Canada Sales

[Buggle]

Why can't all Americans be as intelligent as you? Why are there people in Wyoming?

I agree. What happened is that a few who opposed Trump were voted out. Trumps base made sure of that. After that, the choice for remaining Congressmen became easy. You either fall in line, keep your job, hold your nose, and help Trump implement his agenda, which for the most part is their agenda, b/c they vote on it... or you stand up for you principles, such as it is not ok to role model those things that the President does towards women etc. and start looking for a new job for yourself. Unfortunately, it does look like the majority of Republican congressmen either did not have principles or sold them out, probably justifying that sale in their mind by saying that getting things done is more important than the collateral damage, including to your own moral and to your family's and to the families of the rest of Americans.

Here's the thing -- Americans tend to place a ton of faith in their constitution and institutions. This faith is misplaced. The #1 thing protecting democracy is the people themselves. A democracy is only as healthy as its people themselves. #2 is the media, and #3 is the judiciary. Politicians are somewhere down the list. Trump is single handedly destroying these institutions, and his primary focus has been on #1 & #2. So when you say Republican politicians aren't standing on their morals you're correct, but neither are their constituents; they're just idiots for the most part. So for me the question becomes -- what happens to a democracy when the people aren't informed enough to understand what's good for them? This is where I think we are, and I think it's an insanely dangerous place.

Why? Leverage. Robert Steele's dossier was not disproven. In fact, some line items from it were confirmed by FBI. But most likely the witnesses who could confirm other line items are no longer around, taken care of by Putin.

Did you read about the two Russians connected to the Steele dossier that suddenly had fatal heart attacks within the week after the dossier was leaked?

What cannot be proven, cannot be used against Trump in the Court of Law.

Yes of course. The problem though is that in this situation is it's an open question whether Trump has co-opted enough institutions to make the rule of law irrelevant. We're not there yet, but we're definitely not far from it. The American Supreme Court has been completely co-opted. Trump is trying really hard, working his base of idiots. At that point the rule of law becomes the rule of law as it is in Russia and China, where money talks and poor people die in misery and anonymity.

I think that people get tired of status quo that doesn't work for them. So, once in a while they challenge the status quo and cause the pendulum of history to swing wildly. This time towards nationalism, protectionism, isolationism. I hope that it will not go too far and that Trump will serve us as a vaccination against Nazi Germany, not take us all the way there.
When significant portion of the population wants to probe that direction you can't just un-elect Trump back the next day. This exploration needs to run its course and, hopefully, peacefully.
Then the pendulum may swing in another direction and we'll have opposite problems to discuss.

This is best case scenario. I used to be 50/50 which way this would go, and I hoped for the best. I always thought.. "you know there's too many intelligent, non-bigoted people in New York & California for Trump to succeed", but lately I've become more pessimistic. The pillars of democracy are weakening, day by day.

I'm holding my fingers crossed against Trump's 2nd term - I'm hoping people had seen enough.
If not, life goes on and the only consolation is that there can't be more than 2 terms of Trump.

This is the litmus test for me. I will not be at all surprised if, once re-elected, Trump immediately pivots to a discussion of removal of term limits, a la Putin. That will be the end if he does that.[/quote][/QUOTE]

 

[Buggle]

While in general I am against trade wars, I can see that fair trade is fair only between participants not looking to undermine one another.
If U.S. is to be able to stand up to China in the future, it needs to have the manufacturing capability to do the end-to-end production on its territory and not completely depend on components that can be only procured in China.
I don't have all details on what's going on right now with the trade wars, but I can see some rationale behind it from the defence/security perspective. It could be that countries other than China are a collateral damage in this trade war.

You're being a bit one sided here. When you say fair I read that as "in American and more widely the west's interests". America is the world's hegemon, and has been for 75 years. America is the most powerful hegemon the world has ever seen. The fact China is growing in strength and using underhanded tactics to achieve their aims isn't necessarily evil, you used the word undermining. It's just what you'd expect from a strong and growing power. Don't forget -- the English back in the day for all intent and purposes thought the American revolutionaries were traitors and terrorists.

So while I'm by no means looking forward to a Chinese hegemon - I always tell people, if you hate America, just wait for China. America at that point will look like a utopia. But I think China is simply using the levels of power they have to grab the biggest piece of the pie for themselves. Everybody does this. Generally speaking the weak are polite cause they're weak, not cause they're great people.

 

[Moderatefan]

Here's the thing -- Americans tend to place a ton of faith in their constitution and institutions. This faith is misplaced. The #1 thing protecting democracy is the people themselves. A democracy is only as healthy as its people themselves. #2 is the media, and #3 is the judiciary.

If you look at Putin, the first thing he did is strangled the media. This was going slowly, with some outlets bought out by the state, others closed on technicalities, some owners had criminal cases opened against them, etc. etc. People were too busy going about their daily lives to notice these small daily injustices. Finally, all TV channels were consolidated under the state. News outlets that allowed themselves too much freedom in interpreting sensitive topics were taught several times each what can happen. Journalists get attacked accidentally on the street, editors ousted via any means possible, advertisement revenue dries up suddently, b/c various state and not state owned companies got the message that it is not ok to cooperate with this news outlet. Or else they may not get business from the state. Meanwhile, conditions for private business deteriorated with corruption running rumpant, various state and enforcement officials extorting all kinds of money from them or simply taking over businesses they liked by faking criminal cases against owners. So, slowly with businesses closing and running away from the country the only business that was left is the state owned business. All these nationalized oil and gas companies. That makes it even easier to control media and other businesses, you simply tell them they won't have state money and they go bankrupt.

So, then the brainwashing starts. From the government controlled media the people get a lot of BS. 24x7. They learn that the only thing they need is to be proud of international "achievements", which thanks to President Putin brought the former USSR glory back to Russia. That all the failures of the economy and internal affairs can be blamed directly on America and its sanctions, which are unjustly brought up on fake accusations, such as killing thousands in Ukraine etc. Yes, they have pictures and videos of us, but no, there's no way in the world they can prove it is us on those pictures. All fake news.

Somewhere in between judicuary falls too. They are no longer independent, they are appointed. And when state needs somebody prosecuted, they call the judge with instructions. If you don't obey, you get fired. Try finding yourself another job when private business is non existent.

It is 1984 right now in Russia. Very few exceptions.

Trump is single handedly destroying these institutions, and his primary focus has been on #1 & #2. So when you say Republican politicians aren't standing on their morals you're correct, but neither are their constituents; they're just idiots for the most part. So for me the question becomes -- what happens to a democracy when the people aren't informed enough to understand what's good for them? This is where I think we are, and I think it's an insanely dangerous place.

I agree. A lot of people these days are getting their news from facebook feeds rather than professional journalists. Bashing media that is getting by on limited financing does not help.

So, Trump constituents or his base. I wouldn't necessarily call them idiots, they are simple people, I watched some reports from rust belt with journalists interviewing them. A lot of them are jobless and they want former glory for blue collar jobs. They want to be proud of a job they can do. They don't want to be involved in politics and, possibly, watch out for the pillars of democracy. Most people don't.
They want jobs. They want respect.
Trump promised them both, but I think will only deliver the latter. He'll say: you matter, you're important, look at all those things I'm doing on your behalf. Still don't have jobs? Well, I tried.

The sense of pride should not be underestimated, they may remain loyal just b/c of that. Similar to how Putin touts national pride to his constituents, it being the only thing that can't be measured, since he failed everywhere else.

Did you read about the two Russians connected to the Steele dossier that suddenly had fatal heart attacks within the week after the dossier was leaked?

I did not see that. But I did read about two heart attacks of Rodchenkov's co-workers that caused him to run to U.S. and spill the secrets about Sochi olympics doping scheme, so I find both scenarios similar. Netflix had the movie "Icarus" where he stars himself and explains the whole deal and his motives.

The problem though is that in this situation is it's an open question whether Trump has co-opted enough institutions to make the rule of law irrelevant. We're not there yet, but we're definitely not far from it. The American Supreme Court has been completely co-opted. Trump is trying really hard, working his base of idiots. At that point the rule of law becomes the rule of law as it is in Russia and China, where money talks and poor people die in misery and anonymity.

Yes, scary possibilities. I think he simply doesn't have enough time. He's too old to last 20 years, which it took to Putin to get where he is.

but lately I've become more pessimistic. The pillars of democracy are weakening, day by day.

There's that.

once re-elected, Trump immediately pivots to a discussion of removal of term limits, a la Putin. That will be the end if he does that.

He's too old, I believe. But it doesn't remove the risk of his successor, Trump#2 from continuing to deteriorate the pillars of democracy.
There's one distinct difference from Russia though. Everybody here has guns. So, the scare tactics may not work as well.

 

[Moderatefan]

You're being a bit one sided here. When you say fair I read that as "in American and more widely the west's interests". America is the world's hegemon, and has been for 75 years. America is the most powerful hegemon the world has ever seen. The fact China is growing in strength and using underhanded tactics to achieve their aims isn't necessarily evil, you used the word undermining. It's just what you'd expect from a strong and growing power. Don't forget -- the English back in the day for all intent and purposes thought the American revolutionaries were traitors and terrorists.

So while I'm by no means looking forward to a Chinese hegemon - I always tell people, if you hate America, just wait for China. America at that point will look like a utopia. But I think China is simply using the levels of power they have to grab the biggest piece of the pie for themselves. Everybody does this. Generally speaking the weak are polite cause they're weak, not cause they're great people.

So, about one-sided. I do not insist that America is faultless and everything it does on the world scene is selfless and just. For one, I was appalled by the amount of propaganda here in U.S. about non-existent "weapons of mass destruction" that were used to justify the Iraq invasion. I do believe there are always some big money interests at play that strive to keep Middle East unstable, so the oil prices can be controlled. Putin's interest in Syria today is for them to remain high, btw.

However, speaking about "hegemons". Smaller nations do not impose their views on others, larger nations can.

The difference between democracies and countries like China/Russia is that in a democracy the government exists for the people.

In Russia/China people exist for the government, they are expendable if needed to advance governments agenda. Or even personal agenda of a small government official.

People often say lets be friends, every country and culture deserves its place in the world, lets just make some space here and let Russia, China, NK have a bigger piece of the pie. Let them participate equally in making important decisions that affect our world. What people don't realise is that those decisions may affect their life directly, in other words they will have to die as insignificant expendable resource that is not important to those countries agenda.

 

[Buggle]

From the NYT --

He claims that he’s merely responding to other countries. But the average current tariff of the United States, Britain, Germany and France is identical, according to the World Bank: 1.6 percent. Japan’s is 1.4 percent, and Canada’s is 0.8 percent. Yes, every country has a few objectionable tariffs, but they’re small — and the United States is not a victim here.

 

[SSonnentag]

America's democracy is not being threatened, it's the republic that is in its death throes.

Pure democracy is nothing more than mob rule.
This is the beauty and foresight of our electoral college as well. It helps to prevent a few states with massive populations from controlling the entire election process.

 

[Buggle]

Here's a link to the various dead Russian diplomats/intelligence people. The number is higher than I thought, 9 in 2017.
https://www.cnn.com/2017/03/24/europe/dead-russians/index.html

Specifically, from Vanity Fair --
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/201...ssian-dossier-was-compiled-christopher-steele

Oleg Erovinkin, a former F.S.B. [successor to the KGB] general and ally of Putin confidant Igor Sechin, was a suspected source of Steele’s; Erovinkin was found dead in his car in December.

 

[Canuck]

The fact China is growing in strength and using underhanded tactics to achieve their aims isn't necessarily evil, you used the word undermining. It's just what you'd expect from a strong and growing power.

Wow, just wow. It's a good thing the founding fathers did not share your view. It's hard to believe someone who lives in a free and democratic society can even have this view.

In my view, one of the definitions of "pure evil" is to use "underhanded tactics to achieve their aims". This goes against the Rule of Law, which is at the core of any just society and without it, evil prevails. We have so many examples of that and that's why any underhanded tactics used to gain power, or by those in power, must be rooted out and punished. What I expect from a "strong and growing" power is simple: the Rule of Law. That is what America (and Canada) stand for, and why Mueller was appointed as Special Counsel (used to be called a "Special Prosecutor"). You really need to understand how Special Prosecutors are handled in China and Russia to understand just how evil their societies are. And yes, killing opponents, and controlling the Special Prosecutor so they are complicit in that, and don't bring charges against those in power is pure evil. And that doesn't even account for countless others who are hauled away to rot in jail for their views (remember Tiananmen Square protests of 1989?!) -- now we have Xi declaring himself "President for Life." No evil there, folks, please just look the other way. It's just what we expect China to do -- Rule of Law be damned.

 

[Buggle]

Wow, just wow. It's a good thing the founding fathers did not share your view. It's hard to believe someone who lives in a free and democratic society can even have this view.

In my view, one of the definitions of "pure evil" is to use "underhanded tactics to achieve their aims". This goes against the Rule of Law, which is at the core of any just society and without it, evil prevails. We have so many examples of that and that's why any underhanded tactics used to gain power must be rooted out and punished. What I expect from a "strong and growing" power is simple: the Rule of Law. That is what America (an Canada) stand for, and why Mueller was appointed as Special Counsel (used to be called a "Special Prosecutor"). You really need to understand how Special Prosecutors are handled in China and Russia to understand just how evil their societies are. And yes, killing opponents, and controlling the Special Prosecutor so they are complicit in that, and don't bring charges against those in power is pure evil. And that doesn't even account for countless others who are hauled away to rot in jail for their views (remember Tiananmen Square protests of 1989?!) -- now we have Xi declaring himself "President for Life." No evil there, folks, please just look the other way. It's just what we expect China to do -- Rule of Law be damned.

Well there's people acting in the public interest, and there's people acting out of greed. Hopefully we recycle our politicians between these two over time, and I think that's traditionally what has happened, though greed is tending to win out more lately.

Regarding one country vs. another though, I'd say there's very little being nice to one another going on. There's peace in the west cause everyone acquiesced to American hegemony. If Canada nationalized all American industry tomorrow it wouldn't take the American army very long to start marching, don't kid yourself.

And I'm not in any way saying American justice is where Chinese & Russian justice is. Not at all. What I'm saying is it's headed that way unless things can turn around, and I'm also saying that's what Trump wants. Do I need to list the dictators that Trump has heaped praise on since assuming office? He wants to be one of them with unfettered power, I've no doubt about that in my mind.

 

[SSonnentag]

Well there's people acting in the public interest, and there's people acting out of greed. Hopefully we recycle our politicians between these two over time, and I think that's traditionally what has happened, though greed is tending to win out more lately.

Regarding one country vs. another though, I'd say there's very little being nice to one another going on. There's peace in the west cause everyone acquiesced to American hegemony. If Canada nationalized all American industry tomorrow it wouldn't take the American army very long to start marching, don't kid yourself.

And I'm not in any way saying American justice is where Chinese & Russian justice is. Not at all. What I'm saying is it's headed that way unless things can turn around, and I'm also saying that's what Trump wants. Do I need to list the dictators that Trump has heaped praise on since assuming office? He wants to be one of them with unfettered power, I've no doubt about that in my mind.

That's pretty much the way the world has always been. The country with the biggest army makes the rules. It's the only reason for suppressing nuclear capabilities of other countries. It's not a nice fact, but it really boils down to, "either get bullied in to submission or bloodied into submission."

 

[Canuck]

If Canada nationalized all American industry tomorrow it wouldn't take the American army very long to start marching, don't kid yourself.

I don't get the point? It won't ever happen (in our lifetimes anyway) so what's the point of this analogy? In any event, if someone stole from me, I'm coming to get it back too. With Cuba, the USSR was breathing down the US's back, but they still tried the Bag of Pigs invasion, and I don't blame them for that. I guess you do?

And I'm not in any way saying American justice is where Chinese & Russian justice is. Not at all. What I'm saying is it's headed that way unless things can turn around, and I'm also saying that's what Trump wants. Do I need to list the dictators that Trump has heaped praise on since assuming office? He wants to be one of them with unfettered power, I've no doubt about that in my mind.

You're preaching to the choir on that issue.

 

[Dr. J]

eh? It's 1000% reflected in stock prices.

The (low) probability of a trade war is probably priced into stocks, though not at the rate you suggest. However, if a trade war really happens or appears more probable, I believe stocks will be repriced to reflect that new reality. I am 10,000% certain of that.

 

[VistaM3B]

....... LONG STORY SHORT
My personal prediction if the situation does not solve by July 1st:

Our Tesla Model 3 value in Ontario soon will go up approximately $20000-$25000.
$14000 + %15 tariff on imported cars from US into Canada.

 

[sauce]

Lately Neville Chamberlain clones have been running the show and those of us in the manufacturing related sectors are Czechoslovakian it seems.

Ever wonder what Churchill would say about Trump?

There was a time when he was the single person in the Western World calling out Hitler for what he was, and that was 6 months before WW2 started.

Also, at 3.8% national unemployment rate I'd venture to say even manufacturing in America must be doing... well... not too bad.

 

[sauce]

When it comes to goods, the import export balance favors Canada:

• The U.S. goods trade deficit with Canada was $17.5 billion in 2017, a 59.7% increase ($6.5 billion) over 2016.

Your assertion is incomplete and misleading.

Here's your source: Canada | United States Trade Representative

Here's what it (The White House) also says about services trade with Canada:

Trade Balance

• The U.S. goods trade deficit with Canada was $17.5 billion in 2017, a 59.7% increase ($6.5 billion) over 2016.
• The United States has a services trade surplus of an estimated $26 billion with Canada in 2017, up 8.0% from 2016.

17.5B goods deficit offset by 26B service surplus to me seems like a net of 8.5B trade surplus. This coming from the White House. In what color exactly do we need to spell it to be accepted as truth?

 

[sauce]

To refer back to the title of my original post. I now pose a question. IF a trade war ensues, do Tesla sales in Canada decrease to a significant extent? Or will there be a minimal impact? And I guess as a corollary, since the US administration seems to be on the same tact with their European allies, would European sales drop in a significant way in a trade war with the US?

My own answer to this: If this trade war aggravates any more than what we're currently seeing, there is a very real threat of some parts of the Canadian economy being burnt to cinders.

If that happens, as a result our dollar will get strongly devaluated with the result that even a Model 3 may well become unaffordable for me as I struggle to repay my 90D loan all the while my income being put to hurt since I'm a businessman working in the retail/home improvement industry, usually one of the hardest hit sectors in time of recession.

Love Tesla as I may, support the mission all I want, if I don't have the money for it, I can't afford it, plain and simple. Causality.

And here's my 2nd worst heartbreak (or maybe my 1st actually): Being unable to afford other USA luxuries like my 4 weeks of vacation per year in the Outer banks of NC, good for a total spending budget in the area of 8k/yr. Anyone who knows that area knows the businesses established in the OBX are anything but rich multinationals. Seeing how this is an important tourist spot for Canadian sportsmen (fishing, surf and wind sports) the very kind and welcoming locals may well end up as collateral damage. They will tell you this is their usual luck. Or maybe they'll have to tell you that from an exile after their businesses go bankrupt or their jobs have been cut.

Add to that our traditional football weekend getaway visiting one NFL city every year, another 1k of various spending.

Yeah... I keep my fingers crossed this doesn't happen, because what really is threatened here is our way of life. And this way of life has favored Americans in many more far-reaching areas than what seems to be evaluated at the moment.

The question I've been pondering is: What's a Canadian neighbor worth to you?

 

[Vawlkus]

I think it would be important to note that this is the Canadian forum where not everyone loves Trump very much...

Especially right now.

 

[Struja]

Here's the reality... a trade war with Canada probably hurts us more than the USA but that's not what is happening here. This is (in general), an attack on his allies and not just for trade. There is an all out media assault on his allies, peddling fake facts and ridiculous name calling. Meanwhile, dictators in China, Russia and North Korea are people Trump "can trust" are "smart" and admirable. The Canadian, Brits, French and Germans are backstabbing, untrustworthy snakes.

I was watching a CBC report the other day outlining how many of our beloved men and women in uniform have died (in Iraq and Afghanistan) supporting our allies to the south and I am astonished at the level of disrespect. Some here have suggested these are just "words" and it is actions that matter. That is hogwash. Words matter, actions matter. Right now, both are really bad coming from the White House.

I still have solidarity with the 50% that haven't lost their collective minds down south.

 

[Struja]

This map is not current, but I'd imagine it would even look more bleek today.

Any fair minded and intellectually honest American would see this map as a problem:

 

[Koflach]

Here's the reality... a trade war with Canada probably hurts us more than the USA but that's not what is happening here. This is (in general), an attack on his allies and not just for trade. There is an all out media assault on his allies, peddling fake facts and ridiculous name calling. Meanwhile, dictators in China, Russia and North Korea are people Trump "can trust" are "smart" and admirable. The Canadian, Brits, French and Germans are backstabbing, untrustworthy snakes.

I was watching a CBC report the other day outlining how many of our beloved men and women in uniform have died (in Iraq and Afghanistan) supporting our allies to the south and I am astonished at the level of disrespect. Some here have suggested these are just "words" and it is actions that matter. That is hogwash. Words matter, actions matter. Right now, both are really bad coming from the White House.

I still have solidarity with the 50% that haven't lost their collective minds down south.

Trump knows his base and he called them out famously in his run up to the election "We won with young. We won with old. We won with highly educated. We won with poorly educated. I love the poorly educated."