trading

[hcdavis3]

Share price. It was getting a little ridiculous. Kind of like Apple when it was endlessly tanking last year

Doh. I’m learning. Your pal, Homer.

 

[Boomer19]

do we regain the afternoon again today?

 

[bdy0627]

IMO, it is very likely that macros will need to fall apart for us not to climb at least 25% from the $176 bottom. We may actually climb much more. There can be volatility along the way, but it shouldn't be more than 5 or 6% during the climb.

 

[Boomer19]

ugh so boring today
11mm shares and stifled at 195
waste of time and energy

 

[bdy0627]

I sold some J20 calls today to buy nearer term (July) ones. I feel more uncertain short-term about macros than I do about TSLA at this point. Short interest actually increased a bit over the last couple of days. The stock is climbing due to strong volume buying rather than short covering. If the stock continues to climb, reinforcing the changing trend, then I think we will start to see some short covering, which will fuel stronger climbing. 1 big climbing day isn't enough to chase off shorts right now. They are absolutely feverish over TSLA going down. If we can get some more good news soon would be a big help. Maybe at the SH meeting? Or maybe more indications of high deliveries.

 

[bdy0627]

Just came across this post about last year's SH meeting:

Mike Smith, 34 minutes ago
Annual shareholder meeting is next Tuesday. Last year investors were gloomy just like now, then Musk reaffirmed guidance at the meeting and TSLA rose 25% in about a week.

#62208

 

[bdy0627]

If orders and deliveries are looking very solid through next Tuesday, I can't imagine Elon won't indicate that and reaffirm guidance for Q2. Tesla will have a strong sense of orders for June by then.

 

[Boomer19]

Just came across this post about last year's SH meeting:

Mike Smith, 34 minutes ago
Annual shareholder meeting is next Tuesday. Last year investors were gloomy just like now, then Musk reaffirmed guidance at the meeting and TSLA rose 25% in about a week.

#62208

yeah i posted that a couple times myself
about annual mtg

think about it;
last year we came off of a bad qtr with no model 3 ramp and a frustrated elon accurately, but in poor form, calling sacconaghi questions boneheaded. stock crushed heading into meeting in june 2018

at the annual meeting it was a totally different elon, and the ramp was already in process of being solved.

this year one can argue circumstances are a bit different.

but the parallels are scarily similar;
-terrible qtr partly due to MF issues with S&X
- and cell constrained on 3 bc of MF issues with panasonic.

this leads to annual meeting setup, calm and factual debunking of all the manipulation and bullshit that’s been spewed to us almost hourly over the last 35 days

- reiterate that pana lines 11-12-13 at gf1 (or whatever they’re called) are operating at decent capacity now (that they’re being “rejiggered”) and path the 10,000 packs a week is imminent with retooling
- all they need is cells
- ravens are being delivered
- q2 still longshot to be profitable, but q3 should be by all means.
- china progress seemingly exceptional.
- machinery for Y on books in q1
- cap outlay not as bad as q1 (despite china progress)
- model y accelerated ramp (due to choosing fremont)

 

[Boomer19]

same premarket as yesterday.
probably the pros pantsing brainless shorts in dark pools and then using what little ammo that generates to jumpstart the selling once 9:30 hits...any edge is an edge

we need a bit more edge on our side to fight that and macros

 

[defc0n]

I'd keep an eye on the $215-$220 range I guess, but a very quick gap fill back up to somewhere in the $235-$255 range makes the most sense to me chart-wise. I would suggest taking any profits you may have in the short term there.

 

[Boomer19]

I'd keep an eye on the $215-$220 range I guess, but a very quick gap fill back up to somewhere in the $235-$255 range makes the most sense to me chart-wise. I would suggest taking any profits you may have in the short term there.

that would be great. still lots of pressure today. went from up 10.30 to up 5.50 in less than 5 min

cut 4 off in less than 2 min

currently up 6.50 looks to be about 4mm shares so far 21 min into session

 

[bdy0627]

Option_Sniper (@option_snipper)
keep in mind there are two KEY long-term levels for $TSLA - 181 and 221.... at 181, bulls start to panic and they buy the dip like crazy.... at 221, bears gonna be panic and short squeeze likely send it up another 50-60 pts fast and furious.... so just remember 221 is KEY ...

 

[anthonyj]

Option_Sniper (@option_snipper)
keep in mind there are two KEY long-term levels for $TSLA - 181 and 221.... at 181, bulls start to panic and they buy the dip like crazy.... at 221, bears gonna be panic and short squeeze likely send it up another 50-60 pts fast and furious.... so just remember 221 is KEY ...

Option_Sniper has made me money on everything but TSLA. He is almost always wrong on Tesla since it is so damn unpredictable. Hope he is right though.

 

[Boomer19]

i still have gut feeling this bounce isn’t legit.
too much trump trade rhetoric baggage and more looming

 

[Boomer19]

weak 2nd half of day

 

[anthonyj]

weak 2nd half of day

Are we looking at the same stock? It’s up 4+%

 

[bdy0627]

i still have gut feeling this bounce isn’t legit.
too much trump trade rhetoric baggage and more looming

What do you consider not legit? We aren't very likely to go straight back up, but likely pullback by $240ish. That would be about a 36% climb. It's probably unrealistic to expect more on the first climb from this huge drop. If macros take a dive then we may pullback before then. How low does that pullback go is the question. I think there will be more buyers than sellers as we get closer to the P&D report. It's looking more and more likely that Tesla at least gets close to 90k deliveries, possibly more. If so, the reason for us trading below $240 is no longer valid. I would anticipate a higher low on that pullback unless there is some really bad news with macros or TSLA.

 

[bdy0627]

Also, keep in mind there has been no significant short covering thus far on this climb. Shares shorted is still 39.4M.

 

[Boomer19]

Also, keep in mind there has been no significant short covering thus far on this climb. Shares shorted is still 39.4M.

i meant legit in the sense that i still feel macros will give reason allowing it forced back down before it reaches its 221 or whatever resistance is needed to break and stay above it for a while. i just fear trumps twitter account mostly.

also, yeah another 1mm+ net shares shorted last two days

something has to give

 

[anthonyj]

i meant legit in the sense that i still feel macros will give reason allowing it forced back down before it reaches its 221 or whatever resistance is needed to break and stay above it for a while. i just fear trumps twitter account mostly.

also, yeah another 1mm+ net shares shorted last two days

something has to give

You have been hypnotized by the eternal downtrend. This price is fake. Fake fake fake. 100% fake. You can buy it and sell it, but it shouldn't be happening. It's theft. Institutions will bid this up all the way to $250 minimum, and quickly.