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trading
- Thread starter Boomer19
- Start date
bdy0627
Active Member
I am surprised at the weakness of TSLA with the Nasdaq being so strong today. Short interest increased a little again today, to 39.46. Amazing to me how the catalyst for this drop was collapse of demand, yet despite the fact that we are seeing lots of signs of robust demand, shorts are still certain that TSLA is heading lower. I don't get that. I think another reason for the weakness today is the 20 MA/Mid BB. That has been a resistance for TSLA on this long drop, so buyers are likely tentative there and shorts are emboldened. I haven't sold any of my July calls. I see too much opportunity for further climb in June as more signs of robust demand are evident, plus the SH meeting next week.
If we convincingly dip below $201.8 then it might be wise to reduce short term leverage. In the other direction, shorts likely have stops just above $211, so if we can climb through that then I think we will rapidly climb higher.
Antares Nebula
Active Member
I think sentiment has shifted bullish, but that doesn't mean we're not going to dip as we go up. There is a gap fill below 197 and 179, also double bottom at the latter if we hit it again. The low at 177 approx would be my stop. In short, we may bounce between here and 177, forming a bottom, before going up. Though not necessarily; anything can happen. Opportunity to add, rather than cut losses, IMO.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Agreed that dip, if it gets under $190 is an opportunity, rather than a problem.
Some of you here know that I brought in some new money from the sale of a Porsche. While I fully deployed it, I didn't get fully on margin, and was rather careful to not get margin call until below $150. If we see $180 again, I think I'm gonna get full margin on, and then maintain position by borrowing from HLOC if needed. (btw, this is only my trading account, maybe 25% of overall equity, registered accounts have no leverage)
My fears were mostly related to short-term demand, and while margin may suffer, it speaks volumes that Tesla seems to have been able to recover demand in short order. I never doubted mid to long term, but this short term recovery bodes really well for mid-long term.
Note to anyone reading this, I've been known to most often go in (too) early, but I usually have both 1. position and 2. solid mitigation strategy that can endure such errors. For example, my jan '20 is strike $80, and my jan '21 is strike $300, and there is untapped large HLOC line at low interest, and no existing debts, and 15+ years until retirement...
thanks for those last 3 posts, very helpful.
well, it appears we are avoiding a mexico fiasco, for now. that may be a positive sign for monday. some positive reinforcement that we are on track from tuesday’s meeting could line us up for a decent week. let’s hope.
meanwhile, for what it’s worth, i was able to score a quick back and forth with tivoboy, who has been slammed with work this past week, and admittedly not paying a whole lot of attention to trading days. without trying to put words in his mouth, i got the impression he wasn’t very optimistic about being able to sustain a rally given macros, especially if there was covering going on during the rally. he was more along the probability of the ranges that nebula posted earlier being likely, if macro headwinds, before rising back into 200s on decent news later down the road.
but it doesn’t seem like there was covering, according to ihor, and with mexico in the clear (fingers crossed) as stated earlier, maybe things are looking up for early next week.
it’ll be interesting to hear from him once he has a chance to catch up, because he’s been pretty on point with shorter term outlook.
the more input, the merrier, i say
well, it appears we are avoiding a mexico fiasco, for now. that may be a positive sign for monday. some positive reinforcement that we are on track from tuesday’s meeting could line us up for a decent week. let’s hope.
meanwhile, for what it’s worth, i was able to score a quick back and forth with tivoboy, who has been slammed with work this past week, and admittedly not paying a whole lot of attention to trading days. without trying to put words in his mouth, i got the impression he wasn’t very optimistic about being able to sustain a rally given macros, especially if there was covering going on during the rally. he was more along the probability of the ranges that nebula posted earlier being likely, if macro headwinds, before rising back into 200s on decent news later down the road.
but it doesn’t seem like there was covering, according to ihor, and with mexico in the clear (fingers crossed) as stated earlier, maybe things are looking up for early next week.
it’ll be interesting to hear from him once he has a chance to catch up, because he’s been pretty on point with shorter term outlook.
the more input, the merrier, i say
bdy0627
Active Member
Let's see if the bears are up to the task today. Their job is to not let TSLA stay above $211, the high from the last 2 days of trading. The channel low we were in until May 17 appears to be around $212. TSLA also needs to close above the gap created on the move from May 17 to May 20. The stock closed at $211.03 before that gap down. Once comfortably above that gap and the channel low, those should become support and allow for further climbing, probably to the 50 SMA and upper BB.
well, they’re trying to do what you explained.
let’s get a late end of day rally into the morning and keep trump bound and gagged until wednesday night (minimum) so the street can absorb the meeting/call and a days worth of trading
anthonyj
Stonks
Antares Nebula
Active Member
I don't like all the gaps, nor the long upper stems on those daily candles. Suggests we may get a retrace and gap fill below. Still, I believe sentiment is shifting positive. Dips are buying opportunities. May be worth taking profits on some options or your trading stack. But not advice, as you never know with TSLA! Won't be surprised if this is UP OR DOWN 30 points by the end of the week.
(Also SPY and other index ETFs have multiple daily gaps in their candles -- again suggesting a retrace in the near future.)
(Also SPY and other index ETFs have multiple daily gaps in their candles -- again suggesting a retrace in the near future.)
bdy0627
Active Member
Yeah, we will pullback at some point here and retest below, hopefully with a higher low. It would be nice to see $200 be support. It's sure looking like a lot of resistance around the convergence of 50 SMA, upper BB, and gap down from the $239.5 close on 5/10. Technically, that would make sense for the pullback. I will be surprised if we close above the 50 SMA. Of course, it will depend if there is some kind of news at the SH meeting tonight. Ideally, I'd like to see that pullback get supported at $200, make a higher low, and resume climbing. If we have a nice climb today, I will be selling some of my July calls, probably at least half. After this climb we've had, I'm not expecting the SH meeting to provide much catalyst for further climb, but who knows.
anthonyj
Stonks
The stock is still so damn low. People who take profits or short here are just providing liquidity for institutions that are currently buying. Candles don’t mean much with this stock anymore. Just know that anything under $250 is robbery
bdy0627
Active Member
I don't disagree. It's just that I've traded this stock too long to continue hanging onto high leverage beyond a certain point. Even if the stock climbs further on this climb, it will dip again and again, providing lots of opportunities. The times I have been most regretful is not selling calls after a nice climb, thinking it will just keep going up. I generally do fine buying on dips, albeit buying too early quite a bit due to FOMO, but I have struggled to deleverage enough before the stock dips again. This is just trading money, not core shares.
anthonyj
Stonks
I agree. I just can’t bring myself to sell my trading shares here. Calls are a diff story though. I did sell some calls that I bought at $177 and bought back the shares that I sold to buy em
bdy0627
Active Member
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
anthonyj
Stonks
Stock price is currently disconnected with bond price, bonds have rallied back into their previous trading range and Tesla stock has yet to break into its previous trading range ($250+). $250 will cause a small 10% squeeze to $270s and will sell off back to $250 before earnings call
Idk lol
The gap back up to $235 should surely fill as I predicted. What happens after that in the short term, I do not know, but I do know it is much riskier.
I have to now also consider my predictions for upcoming events. My current belief is there will be a sharp rise after deliveries are reported in early July. However, I believe there will be a drop after Q2 financials are reported.
I may play it safe and take profits tomorrow and then buy back in a week or so before deliveries, and once again hopefully take profits thereafter.
There is a good chance to profit the week before financials too, but I would think twice about holding through financials. I’d have to wait and see what some of the better bean counters here think after seeing the delivery report though.
anthonyj
Stonks
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