trading

[Zhelko Dimic]

So I finally test drove M3 (LR and P) on Sunday, and they had plenty of inventory of all kinds of M3s (SR+, LR AWD and P). Also plenty of inventory of pre-raven Model S at great prices. They didn't start delivering raven yet, I hear first batch is due early June here in Toronto. Interestingly enough all SR+ that are left are with white interior, they've sold out all of the black ones.

This update is for everyone that think problem is supply and absolutely nothing wrong with demand @neroden

But then, you don't know if you can trust me, I didn't deploy all the money from sale of Porsche GT4, maybe I'm trying to get price down?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Oh, one more comment - Elon Musk said they had 50K orders "for Q2".
He didn't say "in Q2".
For those skilled in Elon speak, it could easily mean that 50K includes those 10K in transit that didn't get delivered in Q1.
Anyone can disagree all they want, but Elon (when he wants) uses language better than Conan The Barbarian his sword. @DaveT

 

[sunny-value]

I'm guessing the people who continue to sell now are not "weaker hands" in the sense of stock holders giving up, but people who had sold puts struck at high levels in the 300s. Now the put buyers are exercising their puts, so these folks now have loads of margin to come up with if they weren't cash covered to begin with. If they don't have the margin they sell. I think this explains the tail end of last week and there could be more of this coming towards the end of this week too.

 

[Boomer19]

So I finally test drove M3 (LR and P) on Sunday, and they had plenty of inventory of all kinds of M3s (SR+, LR AWD and P). Also plenty of inventory of pre-raven Model S at great prices. They didn't start delivering raven yet, I hear first batch is due early June here in Toronto. Interestingly enough all SR+ that are left are with white interior, they've sold out all of the black ones.

This update is for everyone that think problem is supply and absolutely nothing wrong with demand @neroden

But then, you don't know if you can trust me, I didn't deploy all the money from sale of Porsche GT4, maybe I'm trying to get price down?

so i guess you’re not quite ready to sell those puts yet?

 

[Boomer19]

fyi
someone posted in market thread that margin increases have commenced. i think his post was IBs memo. not sure if other brokers have started this yet.
that could be a sign that a move is coming, one way or another

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

so i guess you’re not quite ready to sell those puts yet?

I definitely sold some But I could and want to do more...

 

[Boomer19]

fyi
someone posted in market thread that margin increases have commenced. i think his post was IBs memo. not sure if other brokers have started this yet.
that could be a sign that a move is coming, one way or another

appears IB is stepping up margin over a period of several trading days, giving people time to react. i suppose this will decrease the ‘shock’ for those who are heavily leveraged. not sure about other brokers, haven’t seen any posts for them

 

[sunny-value]

I suppose other brokers will also roll it out, like E*Trade, if a high percent of their clients have exposure and it could result in problems when a large move occurs in either direction.

 

[Boomer19]

The longest it has ever taken historically for the stock to hit bottom after dropping over 25% is 8 days. That was on the big dip in early 2016. We are at day 3 here. Let's see if we set a new record on that with this dip or not. That 2016 dip is the only previous dip that really compares to this one. We are actually lower here from the ATH (-52.2%) than the dip in 2016 (-51.5%).

day 5 begins

 

[bdy0627]

On that dip in Feb 2016, the drop to over 50% from the ATH happened the day the dip bottomed, so there were no days where the stock stayed at that level. On this dip, we are now also on day 5 at over 50% from ATH. That says something about how this dip is different. Market is accepting the stock price at these levels much more than it did in Feb 2016.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

On that dip in Feb 2016, the drop to over 50% from the ATH happened the day the dip bottomed, so there were no days where the stock stayed at that level. On this dip, we are now also on day 5 at over 50% from ATH. That says something about how this dip is different. Market is accepting the stock price at these levels much more than it did in Feb 2016.

Feb '16 felt crazy, unjustifiable, and unimaginable. Drop was so severe in the last few days, that it felt like the end of the world.
However, that's how it felt to me, not necessarily reality. @bdy0627 I think you'll remember me warning you when you joined, and many others of dangers of leveraging, it's that Feb '16 experience that almost wiped me out.

Not today, this drop doesn't feel the same way, it felt imaginable and almost expected. I warned some friends that it could happen. I can't ascertain if my new mindset is a function of 1. no leverage this time, 2. experience that I've been trough it once and I knew it could happen, or 3. that I find this price imaginable considering short-term market concerns.

I really wish I could assign percentages to those 3 above, as it would help me position. I've already put money from Porsche sale into TSLA, and started pivoting from AMZN back into TSLA, but in Feb '16 I borrowed some $CAD200K from HLOC that made me easy 200%+ over time. I'm not brave enough (yet) to do it again. But tempted a tiny, tiny bit...

 

[bdy0627]

Feb '16 felt crazy, unjustifiable, and unimaginable. Drop was so severe in the last few days, that it felt like the end of the world.
However, that's how it felt to me, not necessarily reality. @bdy0627 I think you'll remember me warning you when you joined, and many others of dangers of leveraging, it's that Feb '16 experience that almost wiped me out.

Not today, this drop doesn't feel the same way, it felt imaginable and almost expected. I warned some friends that it could happen. I can't ascertain if my new mindset is a function of 1. no leverage this time, 2. experience that I've been trough it once and I knew it could happen, or 3. that I find this price imaginable considering short-term market concerns.

I really wish I could assign percentages to those 3 above, as it would help me position. I've already put money from Porsche sale into TSLA, and started pivoting from AMZN back into TSLA, but in Feb '16 I borrowed some $CAD200K from HLOC that made me easy 200%+ over time. I'm not brave enough (yet) to do it again. But tempted a tiny, tiny bit...

Yes, I definitely remember your experience and your warning, and here we are. I understand the market concerns, and Q1 was such a huge shock for many after Q3/4 2018. It was terrible. However, I'm still surprised at the lack of a bounce since the small one we had with the capital raise. It will obviously come once buyers think the price is enough of a bargain, and probably more importantly at this point, once buyers feel confident the stock has bottomed.

I've got some extra funds that I could access from a HLOC, but I've so far decided it's not worth the risk. I've lost a huge amount on this long drop, and I don't want to go into debt to leverage up further here. Too much macro risk right now, and I don't think we can expect a rapid climb back up. There will obviously be volatility, but I think it's going to be a pretty slow climb.

 

[Boomer19]

Feb '16 felt crazy, unjustifiable, and unimaginable. Drop was so severe in the last few days, that it felt like the end of the world.
However, that's how it felt to me, not necessarily reality. @bdy0627 I think you'll remember me warning you when you joined, and many others of dangers of leveraging, it's that Feb '16 experience that almost wiped me out.

Not today, this drop doesn't feel the same way, it felt imaginable and almost expected. I warned some friends that it could happen. I can't ascertain if my new mindset is a function of 1. no leverage this time, 2. experience that I've been trough it once and I knew it could happen, or 3. that I find this price imaginable considering short-term market concerns.

I really wish I could assign percentages to those 3 above, as it would help me position. I've already put money from Porsche sale into TSLA, and started pivoting from AMZN back into TSLA, but in Feb '16 I borrowed some $CAD200K from HLOC that made me easy 200%+ over time. I'm not brave enough (yet) to do it again. But tempted a tiny, tiny bit...

Yes, I definitely remember your experience and your warning, and here we are. I understand the market concerns, and Q1 was such a huge shock for many after Q3/4 2018. It was terrible. However, I'm still surprised at the lack of a bounce since the small one we had with the capital raise. It will obviously come once buyers think the price is enough of a bargain, and probably more importantly at this point, once buyers feel confident the stock has bottomed.

I've got some extra funds that I could access from a HLOC, but I've so far decided it's not worth the risk. I've lost a huge amount on this long drop, and I don't want to go into debt to leverage up further here. Too much macro risk right now, and I don't think we can expect a rapid climb back up. There will obviously be volatility, but I think it's going to be a pretty slow climb.

this price action is so controlled and tight right now. is it consolidation?
or a head fake?

upside still has to be the higher probability. downside, with all the issues going on, still had some probability, no?

the thing bdy pointed out about it being different is the scary part. like as if, “ok, we belong here at 190...we’re staying here once we shake out those levered on the way here” type deal

if that is true, i could see a bounce 30-40 bucks and then trickling back here or worse.

if that (the stagnancy at 189-190) IS the head fake, then the unwinding of short leverage could put us back to where we’ve become used to being in the 300 range.

then again, if we get some really bad news, it can continue south.

this is a tricky one.

if i had gun to head i’d say 40% each on scenarios 1 and 2
and 20% on us just purely going lower than here.

i played a bounce up, but i’m in zelk’s camp.
i want to go bigger, but as of right now, i don’t quite have the stomach for it.
that being said i still have a pretty sizeable chunk on telsa at moment, for me anyway.

since may 15 my nuts are in my stomach, but ive been here before. so it doesn’t nearly affect me like it did when i was younger, (to zelks point #2)

 

[Boomer19]

volume looks down today as well...

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I'm wondering if I deploy last 15% free cash here, or wait for low $180?
I somehow can't imagine violent bounce-back for the next little while, not until we're closer to delivery numbers, so I think I'll wait.
After that, if we go below 4180, my plan is to likely convert stock into leaps for some light leverage. Probably not going to borrow...

 

[Boomer19]

I'm wondering if I deploy last 15% free cash here, or wait for low $180?
I somehow can't imagine violent bounce-back for the next little while, not until we're closer to delivery numbers, so I think I'll wait.
After that, if we go below 4180, my plan is to likely convert stock into leaps for some light leverage. Probably not going to borrow...

not a bad plan
i also was thinking of shedding shares for LT calls...right before we broke from ~235 to here :0

 

[bdy0627]

this price action is so controlled and tight right now. is it consolidation?
or a head fake?

upside still has to be the higher probability. downside, with all the issues going on, still had some probability, no?

the thing bdy pointed out about it being different is the scary part. like as if, “ok, we belong here at 190...we’re staying here once we shake out those levered on the way here” type deal

if that is true, i could see a bounce 30-40 bucks and then trickling back here or worse.

if that (the stagnancy at 189-190) IS the head fake, then the unwinding of short leverage could put us back to where we’ve become used to being in the 300 range.

then again, if we get some really bad news, it can continue south.

this is a tricky one.

if i had gun to head i’d say 40% each on scenarios 1 and 2
and 20% on us just purely going lower than here.

i played a bounce up, but i’m in zelk’s camp.
i want to go bigger, but as of right now, i don’t quite have the stomach for it.
that being said i still have a pretty sizeable chunk on telsa at moment, for me anyway.

since may 15 my nuts are in my stomach, but ive been here before. so it doesn’t nearly affect me like it did when i was younger, (to zelks point #2)

You know that if the 3 of us are thinking about adding TSLA but hesitant due to the price action, this is undoubtedly what many TSLA longs/buyers are feeling right now. There are lots of buyers just waiting right now. Shorts are continuing to pressure the stock without much covering even after such a huge drop because buyers aren't forcing them to cover. That's what is missing so far compared with all prior big drops.

Ultimately, what underlies this drop is market uncertainty over demand. Jonas used the delta in total deliveries between Q1 and Q4 2018 to make his point. Deliveries were down sequentially by 1/3. This can only be definitively refuted with increased deliveries. Unfortunately, one quarter of increased deliveries probably won't be enough to undue the damage, but it will help. Many analysts will likely ignore sequential increase in deliveries for Q2 vs Q1. That's just the way it is right now.

If we get good delivery numbers, how far will the stock climb? It will require significant volume to clear resistance levels above us, particularly the upper channel line, which may be perhaps around $230 at that point. That would be about a 25% climb from the $185 low so far, which is what I would expect based on historical stock movement. I think the upper limit would probably be the 50 MA, perhaps $245ish, depending upon when we get there. The upper bollinger band is way up at $268. I do not think that is likely on the first bounce, but you never know. The other question is, where do we find support after we get a pullback after the bounce. We need to get out of this trend and make a higher low. A lot of people will be looking to make a buck on the bounce, and there will be plenty of selling when it looks like the bounce is starting to get sold. Where will buyers step back in on that pullback?

 

[defc0n]

After several days, we still don’t know if $180 is the bottom or not. I give it about a 75% chance that it is. If that falls, most likely $150.

By far Tesla’s biggest risk right now to me is macros. Sucks to be near this $180 price point with a pretty good chance of more near term downside in macros. Hopefully even with a deteriorating overall market, $180 will still be a line in the sand if it comes to that.

 

[defc0n]

You know that if the 3 of us are thinking about adding TSLA but hesitant due to the price action, this is undoubtedly what many TSLA longs/buyers are feeling right now. There are lots of buyers just waiting right now. Shorts are continuing to pressure the stock without much covering even after such a huge drop because buyers aren't forcing them to cover. That's what is missing so far compared with all prior big drops.

Ultimately, what underlies this drop is market uncertainty over demand. Jonas used the delta in total deliveries between Q1 and Q4 2018 to make his point. Deliveries were down sequentially by 1/3. This can only be definitively refuted with increased deliveries. Unfortunately, one quarter of increased deliveries probably won't be enough to undue the damage, but it will help. Many analysts will likely ignore sequential increase in deliveries for Q2 vs Q1. That's just the way it is right now.

If we get good delivery numbers, how far will the stock climb? It will require significant volume to clear resistance levels above us, particularly the upper channel line, which may be perhaps around $230 at that point. That would be about a 25% climb from the $185 low so far, which is what I would expect based on historical stock movement. I think the upper limit would probably be the 50 MA, perhaps $245ish, depending upon when we get there. The upper bollinger band is way up at $268. I do not think that is likely on the first bounce, but you never know. The other question is, where do we find support after we get a pullback after the bounce. We need to get out of this trend and make a higher low. A lot of people will be looking to make a buck on the bounce, and there will be plenty of selling when it looks like the bounce is starting to get sold. Where will buyers step back in on that pullback?

If I do make a big bet with my IRA soon, $250 or so will be my exit price on that.

 

[Boomer19]

well it’s not too bad this morning
-2.03 ~1%
9:47am

in regards to mexico impact...

So, if 80% of the car cost is parts (20% being distribution & final assembly -- possibly an underestimate), then the 5% tariff should raise Tesla's car costs by about 1%.

let’s see how it holds up. it has been an ungodly sh!tstorm of bad news lately

at some point the world has to look not so bleak i would hope