trading

[EVNow]

Shorts don’t cover on rumors or speculation. They cover on fundamentals. October 2018 we saw this. If Tesla reports great financials for Q2, you can expect a very brutal explosion to the upside

So, they short on speculation, but cover on hard facts

 

[defc0n]

Shorts are going to point out that Tesla still isn’t profitable with a record quarter on sales if that happens. So I’m much more bullish on delivery report than financials.

 

[anthonyj]

Shorts are going to point out that Tesla still isn’t profitable with a record quarter on sales if that happens. So I’m much more bullish on delivery report than financials.

Delivery reports have been a sell the news event for the past few quarters

 

[EVNow]

Delivery reports have been a sell the news event for the past few quarters

But this time it's different

I think the important question is what will the shorts do next to weeks. If what Ihor says is true and they have only 6M more shares they can borrow - either they don't short next two weeks and keep the ammo for after delivery report but risk the SP going up fast or short now and hope delivery report won't be that good.

 

[Boomer19]

The upper bollinger band stands at 224.8 right now, which normally will provide some resistance until the band itself resumes climbing faster than the SP is climbing. I suspect we're seeing more longs jumping in because Monday morning open is a popular time for small investors to buy into TSLA following a weekend of looking at the possibilities. Often the first hour is the amateur hour and we see a dip afterwards, but TSLA is showing real strength today. Maybe a small bounce off the upper bb and then we resume climbing this week.

My hope is that this show of strength will scare some shorts into covering and the headwind of the past month+ starts turning into a tailwind.

papa message from earlier today

 

[bdy0627]

Quite the nice climb this morning. I use an 8% volatility filter to identify separate climbs and dips. It's arbitrary, but it works well for filtering out the noise. The smallish dip/consolidation we had last week only got to -7.1%, so it did not meet the filter requirements for a dip. With today's climb above the high from 6/12, we are simply resuming that climb, which is now at 27.5%.

 

[bdy0627]

Pulitzer:
$TSLA Channel & 50MA have been the big resistance. If Price can clear, the stock can run. If not… well, you know, more chop.

 

[anthonyj]

Prediction: Theta burn this week, next week FOMO buying ahead of delivery report (can see $270 tbh), stock tanks after delivery report because it’s Tesla, consolidation until earnings, then short squeeze. Shorts are too crowded rn.
Just a prediction

 

[bdy0627]

If we run up hard, there will be a selloff, but when is the question. P&D report? That's often the case, but maybe too easy to say it's automatic. Q2 ER? One of the two seems likely to trigger a selloff if we are running hard into them. If the Fed doesn't reduce the rate this week, as the market seems to be expecting, we may do hard drop from the upper BB/50 MA. If so, back to what? Mid BB? $210 seemed to be good support, so perhaps there? The market is choppy right now, after climbing very fast. There could easily be a strong drop on Fed not dropping the rate. Remember, it's summertime. Bears aren't hibernating...

 

[defc0n]

I shorted QQQ not long after the Trump + Xi meeting announcement pop. I'm up a bit from that, and hoping for more sell the news after the Fed meeting today. I could very well be wrong on that, but it just seems to me like the market should have any positive outcomes from that mostly baked in already.

Haven't decided when to try jumping back into TSLA. Still medium-term bullish.

 

[defc0n]

Got out of my QQQ short with small profit. Too afraid the market will go bananas after what Powell has to say in a positive direction. I would think market will react quite positively if they even signal openness to rate cuts soon.

 

[bdy0627]

I'm on the sidelines. TSLA seems to be moving with the market for the most part now. Risk seems pretty high to me for a sell the news on the Fed meeting, but anything could happen. Who knows about the Trump Xi meeting. It's not a time I want calls hanging on the reaction.

 

[defc0n]

So how does one trade that Fed decision? They still say there shouldn't be any rate cuts in 2019, yet it seems people are interpreting there will likely be.

 

[defc0n]

Oh well, I just bought ALB since it had a sizable drop today and its stock price still meets my stupidly-low criteria.

 

[Boomer19]

So how does one trade that Fed decision? They still say there shouldn't be any rate cuts in 2019, yet it seems people are interpreting there will likely be.

i haven’t done anything in a few days

i had bought about 40 jun 232.5c around .93 and unloaded half of them the next day at 3 and the other half subsequently (4) but that was really the last round trip move

i bought a couple jan and june 2021 calls i mentioned in earlier posts but i’m kinda waiting for something to happen before i do anything else

girl had me buy some rvlv ipo day so i did and then unloaded it at like 35 lol. it’s at 47. she kept hers. maybe i should have her post here instead of me

 

[defc0n]

I’m debating trading Slack tomorrow.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I’m debating trading Slack tomorrow.

what's expected market cap? _everyone_ is using them. everyone in tech community, they'll expand to big, old, boring/rich companies like banks eventually... But they're likely already priced for it

 

[defc0n]

Believe they will open somewhere around $20 billion. Which is way too high in my opinion for them right now, but who knows what will happen. Beyond Meat took off way too high in my opinion too.

Pretty much everyone I know uses them too...

I don’t see Microsoft or google eating much of their pie. I think they have won chat. More importantly they have demonstrated how important chat is when integrated into an organization. Like Tesla has won at EVs and hopefully autonomy.

Sorry for the non Tesla chatter but Slack will likely steal the show for awhile.

 

[Antares Nebula]

I have my doubts on whether today's Fed news will move the markets in the coming days. If it were to, then why didn't it do so immediately after the FED meeting? It was essentially flat since the afternoon FED announcement.

On the other hand, the charts look quite bullish.

 

[Boomer19]

Believe they will open somewhere around $20 billion. Which is way too high in my opinion for them right now, but who knows what will happen. Beyond Meat took off way too high in my opinion too.

Pretty much everyone I know uses them too...

I don’t see Microsoft or google eating much of their pie. I think they have won chat. More importantly they have demonstrated how important chat is when integrated into an organization. Like Tesla has won at EVs and hopefully autonomy.

Sorry for the non Tesla chatter but Slack will likely steal the show for awhile.

no, by all means, talk whatever ‘trading’ for whatever company you deem relevant.

i just missed getting hit on bid for some bynd puts (tuesday i believe, the morning it was up huge and then pulled back shortly after open). i didn’t chase though. same as the rvlv that the gf had me looking at.

i devote most of trading and research time to tsla. my 401k and ira i tend to once in a while/as needed. the spec trading acct is mainly tsla, cash, and my company stock.
but... always open to other ideas. however i must admit that in past when i spread myself too thin, i ended up losing or breaking even one way or the other. another reason to have a thread that garners others opinions and styles. already learning option stuff from
ZD, technical from bdy, and more from the rest of you. thanks all.