trading

[Antares Nebula]

I know this, but only if you use market orders and don’t set limit prices. Unless I’m mistaken. Tbh I have no idea what I’m doing. I just sell puts when I see the price and get heartburn. I’m bagholding too many shares and this keeps me occupied lol, a couple hundred bucks a day adds up!

Ha, ha... funny. But curious though, if you think you're holding too many shares, wouldn't the correct course be to sell calls rather than puts? The latter has the potential to assign you more shares, whereas the former can reduce shares.

 

[anthonyj]

Ha, ha... funny. But curious though, if you think you're holding too many shares, wouldn't the correct course be to sell calls rather than puts? The latter has the potential to assign you more shares, whereas the former can reduce shares.

My gut says that we won’t cross $200 again so being assigned shares at $225-$235 won’t bother me. I have a major case of FOMO with this stock so selling calls and watching them go up would make me panic buy. This is keeping me a lot happier. I’ll sell some calls when we are over $330 again

 

[Runarbt]

My gut says that we won’t cross $200 again so being assigned shares at $225-$235 won’t bother me. I have a major case of FOMO with this stock so selling calls and watching them go up would make me panic buy. This is keeping me a lot happier. I’ll sell some calls when we are over $330 again

My thinking also.

Just got into selling puts.. and its fun. Sold $210 october put for $1100 - If I get shares I am happy, if it expires I am happy. Win-Win. Most likely I can do a repeat in october, then I can sell a $220 put for another $1100. And by december I can sell a $230 put.. building my cash pile a grand at a time. (as long as SP stays range bound as it has the past years).

If SP soars - thats also cool as I have my long term stocks put aside safely.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Looks like I should have bought puts Friday!

Oh boy! Here we go again...

Tesla Model S explodes after crash with truck, reportedly on Autopilot - Electrek

As this accident took place in Moscow, I wouldn't be surprised if it is part of some Russian/Putin conspiracy to hurt EVs/Tesla, in order to protect their large oil interests. I know... conspiracy theory and all. But look at US election interference and Brexit. They're no longer content with their social media campaign (FUD having less and less effect) and have gone full 3D.

 

[anthonyj]

Looks like I should have bought puts Friday!

This doesn’t really have much of an effect to SP anymore, it worked like two years ago. Any dip based on this news is probably artificial and won’t last long

 

[Antares Nebula]

This doesn’t really have much of an effect to SP anymore, it worked like two years ago. Any dip based on this news is probably artificial and won’t last long

I tend to agree. It would have to be something more major. It turns out it was the driver's fault and that the injuries weren't severe. Macros likely to be the dominant factor this week. SEC and/or other regulatory news also on watch, but unknown. May buy calls if it takes a dip Monday morning.

 

[anthonyj]

Just sold weekly $235 put and bought 3 $240 calls. No clue what I’m doing

Edit: I’m now a bagholder

 

[Antares Nebula]

4 hour chart. Looks like a symmetrical triangle, i.e., a pennant flag, which is a continuation pattern (or bear/bull flag). Since the initial move was a drop from 265 to about 225/230, this would then be a continuation of a downside move, i.e. a bear flag.

To calculate the "measured move": 225 - (265 - 225) = 185. Or 230 - (265 - 230) = 195. (Depends where you draw your lines.) If you look on the weekly chart, you can also see a kind of bear flag.

BUT! It's more an art than a science, and only probabilities. The triangle need not break to the downside. Can break to the upside instead. Basically, you have to watch the chart over the next few days. Will likely break this week (or latest) next week.

In summary, be cautious of a potential (though not guaranteed) downside move.

View attachment 440908

 

[Antares Nebula]

Just sold weekly $235 put and bought 3 $240 calls. No clue what I’m doing

Edit: I’m now a bagholder

Tough break. I was going to buy calls on a dip, but then I noticed the potential bear pattern (see my previous post). I may wait to see which way the pattern breaks before buying puts/calls.

 

[EVNow]

Wonder whether today's MMD was around 11:39 AM when the SP reached below 229 (but was low volume). But if the marrket had gone lower, may be SP would have gone lower too.

Overall today is looking bearish - I doubt SP will rebound like it did last week, daily.

 

[bdy0627]

Still feels like the market wants to go lower. I'm just sitting on the sidelines watching at this point, waiting for a solid rising tide.

 

[anthonyj]

Just sold weekly $235 put and bought 3 $240 calls. No clue what I’m doing

Edit: I’m now a bagholder

Back in green with this trade, will actually hold closer to expiry

 

[Nate the Great]

How green?

Holding an option is a personal thing.

There is a 50/50 chance of it going red.

 

[anthonyj]

How green?

Holding an option is a personal thing.

There is a 50/50 chance of it going red.

Usually I close the trade by EOD with great success, but I have a real good feeling about this week. If I go red, oh well, more shares for me

 

[EVNow]

I wonder about the politics of this. Today's sudden announcement of not actually putting tariffs on some items sounds like a climb down by US government. We know POTUS doesn't like that - so, will he tweet something hawkish ?

BTW, I was unaware of the news and by the time Fidelity showed the news it was too late. What is a good website to track news quickly (short of Bloomberg terminal).

 

[anthonyj]

I wonder about the politics of this. Today's sudden announcement of not actually putting tariffs on some items sounds like a climb down by US government. We know POTUS doesn't like that - so, will he tweet something hawkish ?

BTW, I was unaware of the news and by the time Fidelity showed the news it was too late. What is a good website to track news quickly (short of Bloomberg terminal).

Nah, president will tweet something dovish then next month he will be hawkish again lol. And CNBC app is usually very quick to break news. I get an alert to my phone as soon as news breaks

 

[Antares Nebula]

So I'm playing the symmetrical triangle pattern that I posted about yesterday, which tops out around the 233-236 area over the next few days (and keeps descending). Right on the edge now.

Therefore I sold 235 calls and bought 240 calls, for approx 3.30 and 1.30 respectively. That's a net credit of 2.0. I did 6 of these contract pairs. This is the first time I'm doing a call spread (or credit spread). Usually I just sell calls (and only rarely). But this way, my risk is contained. No matter how high TSLA goes this week, my max risk per contract pair is about $3 (5 - 2). But if I see a definitive upside break tomorrow, then I'll close this spread out well before my max loss. If I was really bold, I would have just sold the 235 calls. But by also buying the 240 calls, I contain my risk, because you never know with Tesla.

I'm still not sure whether the symmetrical triangle pattern will break to the upside or downside (odds favor a downside break, but not definitively). Anyway, just thought I would give this a shot. Been tempted to do it many times, but never did. If I get burned on this, then I'll just continue to keep it simple by only *buying* puts and calls.

 

[EVNow]

I'm still not sure whether the symmetrical triangle pattern will break to the upside or downside (odds favor a downside break, but not definitively).

Barring major Tesla specific news will depend on macros, I think. Also, currently, max pain is at 235. That will change if the SP goes above 235 and stays above tomorrow.

 

[jbih]

I remember vaguely that an release of something autonomy is planned for around August 15th. Is it V10 or something else? If it's good, might influence the stock price.

 

[mongo]

I remember vaguely that an release of something autonomy is planned for around August 15th. Is it V10 or something else? If it's good, might influence the stock price.

Around the 25th ,or 2ish weeks from the 11th
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