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- Thread starter Boomer19
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Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
jeewee3000
Active Member
Very interesting article about the 8 week rule, but the charts used in the article contradict the thesis a little bit.
By week 8 after the breakout the price is often the same as after the < 3 week run of 20% so you were holding 5 weeks longer for no extra gains. Only by week 9 and further does the price keep hiking.
So I'd rather make that a 10-12 week hold rule
already being long stk and options, sitting on gains...i’m not sure what to do next here?
sometimes the best move is wait, and make no move.
not sure if i should buy a few insurance puts...but for example, jun20 290p are ~21.50 per
that’s about 11k for a handful of them. not cheap
covered calls? i think there’s more room to run so i pause...i don’t want to dump all my shares if it does run and i get called.
looking at jun20, can sell 5 440s for about 20 per, and pocket 10k, leaving about 12-13% past ATH to run, if broken, which may not be enough
what are others strategizing
sometimes the best move is wait, and make no move.
not sure if i should buy a few insurance puts...but for example, jun20 290p are ~21.50 per
that’s about 11k for a handful of them. not cheap
covered calls? i think there’s more room to run so i pause...i don’t want to dump all my shares if it does run and i get called.
looking at jun20, can sell 5 440s for about 20 per, and pocket 10k, leaving about 12-13% past ATH to run, if broken, which may not be enough
what are others strategizing
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
holding. I expect drop starting with tomorrow, and yet think break-out is possible too, so, I'm doing nothing.
I do think stock is getting exhausted here, moves up happen on lower and lower volumes on hourly, compared to last few weeks.
It's hard to say in the short term yeah. I'm sitting on a lot of stock (of course), but due to recent run up my long term call options ($400 Jun'21 and Jan'22) have gone up in value a lot and are now 25% of my TSLA money. I was thinking I'd start to convert some of those to stock at the end of this week to limit my downside exposure a bit, but I think I'm going to hold on to them longer for a couple of reasons.
I think downside is somewhat limited at the moment. For SP to drop back into the 200s, I feel like we would need bad macros. I think the chance that it will happen off of just a bad quarter is low. A seasonally weak Q1 in combination with Giga 3 volume production being delayed to Q2'20 could maybe do it.
I also think there's still a lot of upside in the near term. I think a Q4'19 that is similarly good in terms of profits as Q3'19 would likely send us a bit higher from here. Big battery announcements at Battery Investor Day could provide significant upside imo. Giga 3 volume production will significantly boost company fundamentals and almost certainly SP. Start of Model 3 production sent SP up to record highs back in mid-2017, Model Y could do the same. If not start of production, volume production and the increased revenue/profits that MY will bring certainly will.
So yeah, I think I'm also doing nothing for now.
I think downside is somewhat limited at the moment. For SP to drop back into the 200s, I feel like we would need bad macros. I think the chance that it will happen off of just a bad quarter is low. A seasonally weak Q1 in combination with Giga 3 volume production being delayed to Q2'20 could maybe do it.
I also think there's still a lot of upside in the near term. I think a Q4'19 that is similarly good in terms of profits as Q3'19 would likely send us a bit higher from here. Big battery announcements at Battery Investor Day could provide significant upside imo. Giga 3 volume production will significantly boost company fundamentals and almost certainly SP. Start of Model 3 production sent SP up to record highs back in mid-2017, Model Y could do the same. If not start of production, volume production and the increased revenue/profits that MY will bring certainly will.
So yeah, I think I'm also doing nothing for now.
bdy0627
Active Member
I am too and I think so is everyone, which makes me think that's not what's going to happen. The market often punishes those betting on the obvious. This could be the first event in a while that ends up not selling off, perhaps due to some unexpected positives at the event rather than just the truck itself. Who knows really, but I would be cautious thinking the stock is going to sell off after the event since everyone is expecting that. I'm sure shorts are too. The market would piss off the most people with another big gap and go following this event. Many bulls will have sold expecting a drop, and shorts will be loading up for a drop. Bulls would be pissed to have missed it, and shorts would be scrambling big time. Something to think about anyway. I'm only holding 1 June $350 call still plus a lot of stock, and I'm not sure what I'm going to do. What do you guys think? Is the stock going to do the expected and sell on the news?
feels like it doesn’t want to cool off just yet. still some sinking in to do.
but will level off between thanksgiving and xmas and will have some swings taken at it.
longer term would think looks more stable, except election year and global stuff as we progress into 20 and q1 and q2 earnings look to stay positive. chance that it won’t be as rosy as we think right now.
but will level off between thanksgiving and xmas and will have some swings taken at it.
longer term would think looks more stable, except election year and global stuff as we progress into 20 and q1 and q2 earnings look to stay positive. chance that it won’t be as rosy as we think right now.
jeewee3000
Active Member
Same here.
If Tesla announced crazy specs on the truck the market could respond positively IMO. I'm thinking of things like:
"the range of the pickup truck will be +1000km, thanks to (so and so). More on that on Battery Investor Day in Q1/Q2!"
bdy0627
Active Member
Yikes! I think this was clearly the worst reveal in Tesla history. That's one ugly vehicle IMO. We'll soon see how strong the stock is. I would guess we see a retracement of at least 23.6% and probably more. BTD but not right away. This will likely need several red days to recover.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I thought it was cool. If I had where to park it, I'd probably get it. As a family car, instead of S. And I've never considered truck or SUV
Main value of this truck may be as a hallo vehicle, whether it sells in great quantity or not. Imagine this in a parking lot and people learning Tesla name for the first time...
Last edited:
EVNow
Well-Known Member
jeewee3000
Active Member
I only have 2 questions after the Cybertruck event.
1) Where will SP bottom out? (How many trading days)
2) Do I add shares or LEAPS?
1) Where will SP bottom out? (How many trading days)
2) Do I add shares or LEAPS?
That's the problem. The main value was supposed to succeed in the market of core truck buyers, take up market shares, and bring in large revenue and profits. The share price ought to go lower as now even the imagination of such a business is taken away.
There is hope though, as a few small changes in the design might make cybertruck appealing to core truck buyers.
bdy0627
Active Member
That's what I'm thinking for a worst case with a bounce first around $315. It seems like some do like the truck so maybe it's just very polarizing. I personally picture it in a military setting more than at the grocery store. I was hoping there were 2 different versions of the truck with one being less cyber.
With those specs and price points, it looks like the reveal may be more about coming cost reductions in battery and via exoskeleton. Fred may be right here...
Tesla (TSLA) stock down after electric pickup unveiling - market is missing the point - Electrek
Tesla (TSLA) stock down after electric pickup unveiling - market is missing the point - Electrek
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