Steph
Member
$500/share right?
Well, if the cookie monster empty the entire cookie jar, he will find me.
Will he find you too early?
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TSLA Investor Discussions
- Thread starter Fr23shjive
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Well, if the cookie monster empty the entire cookie jar, he will find me.
Will he find you too early?
Thinking of putting in a limit buy order for this afternoon before close - maybe at around $28. I'm not particularly worried about the macroeconomic environment as TSLA never really trades alongside what the overall market is doing (see today).
I fear it will drop even further though, although there has been a pretty dramatic run-off recently!
I fear it will drop even further though, although there has been a pretty dramatic run-off recently!
smorgasbord
Active Member
What's the catalyst(s) that will do that? In a couple of months (say end of Sept), we'll have 500 cars shipped and maybe a Supercharger announcement. Are you expecting more than 500 cars?
On the downside, Tesla is going to have a scary-looking Q3 balance sheet, with low cash on hand - unless they do a capital raise which will dilute shares and drive the price down. Personally, I've pushed my time frame out to Jan 2013 for a big boost in the stock. And, that's assuming Tesla comes close to shipping 5000 cars.
I think we now have time to let this play out. The stock is holding above $28, but external factors could drive the whole market down and take Tesla with it since there won't be any Tesla-specific news to prop the price up. Much as I'm tempted to let someone pay me for a 17 month long position in Tesla at $28, I'm thinking we could easily have larger dips in the upcoming months.
Of course, I've been way wrong before.
Interesting. Any idea how the short/float ratio was in that case? The float (in absolute numbers) must have been way higher that for TSLA. I'm still looking for a short/float ratio > 50% (preferably for a small-cap stock) as is the case for Tesla right now.
Steph
Member
It has nothing to do with financials. It's a state of mind. People see the future in the rear view mirror. This means if it's not in the past, they don't believe. Model S is now in the past. Let them realize it. It may happen any moment now, the more cars on the road, the more it will be in the rear view mirror.
Once it's there, watch-out. It's very sudden and brutal.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Even if we assume all that is true, that doesn't help us pick a timeframe for our options. So not really a useful way to look at it.
Steph
Member
One thing we don't know for sure is the size of the float.
I am calculated in the float but I ain't a float, I'm sitting comfortably on my shares. Technically, i'm in the float cause I have a bid. But it's a crazy bid. How many like me? And some people are crazier then me (even if some say otherwise) .
That's what make this a potential earth shaking event.
I am calculated in the float but I ain't a float, I'm sitting comfortably on my shares. Technically, i'm in the float cause I have a bid. But it's a crazy bid. How many like me? And some people are crazier then me (even if some say otherwise) .
That's what make this a potential earth shaking event.
The most tricky element about predictions is time. I agree with Steph that it's a state of mind. I would be very surprised if an actual significant event would trigger a short squeeze. Just as with tornadoes certain criteria increase the odds, yet they remain extremely difficult to predict.
Worst case - for Steph - is that the short positions are gradually covered, and even that is not an improbable option!
Steph
Member
Only time will tell, the timing is impossible to predict, but all data I have point in that direction. (And I really did my homework on this one)
In understand what you're saying, but that's not what I get from definitions of "float" I find on the web. What I most commonly read is that you are in the float because you don't have restricted shares nor own more than 5% of TSLA.
The actual (free) float required to cover the shorts is therefore (much) less than the reported float.
Unless I'm mistaken, in which case I would gladly be corrected.
I like writing some August 18, 2012 $27.00 puts that sell for $1.25. Beyond that time, the market risk with the U.S. elections, etc. is huge and TSLA will move with the markets. If the puts are exercised then the stock can always be sold, probably above $25.75 and still come out ok. Perhaps earn a premium in the short term. Thoughts?
Steph
Member
KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
No, I think that the analysts (the ones that are not shorting the stock) will be raising their TSLA target price as the plan falls into place. I think Morgan Stanley has had TSLA pegged at around $40/share when they were still estimating 3000 cars this year, and it seems like Tesla may be at least close to 5000. I read the transcript of the Q&A and they seemed fairly impressed with Tesla's strategy and agreed with the decision to have a more exponential rollout. There will always be extreme targets (high and low), but I think a LOT of investors base what they do on these analyst ratings. Obviously global concerns like the Euro will affect the price, and it could still go either direction, but lately there seems to be a bit of positive movement on that front.
A second catalyst could be mainstream media getting on board; after non-Founders get their cars, even if Tesla hasn't given MotorTrend et al. longer-term test drives, there will be a Sig holder who will make some cash by lending her car, and we will see some reviews. And from all accounts there is no reason to believe anything beyond "spartan interior" will be a big issue (and maybe not even that). Even if not all reviews are glowing, Teslawareness will be growing and new investors will be jumping on board.
It could be sooner, it could be later, but Tesla is clearly not vaporware like some still seem to think, they are not having cash flow issues, and it is very probable (barring a direct asteroid hit on the factory or on Elon Musk) that the price will at some point be above $40 at some point this year. And like you, I'm prepared to be wrong, but I'm also preparing to be right (so I don't miss out on a great opportunity). If it drops again in a few months, I'll be adding to my "play pile"!
KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
smorgasbord
Active Member
There's not a lot of downside protection there, so I would only do it if my alternative was to buy the stock today.
smorgasbord
Active Member
That's not going to happen anytime soon. The Q3 500 car plan is a "better do." The 2500/month for Nov and Dec plan is a "show me." So, Dec. is the earliest I would expect anyone to raise estimates because Tesla is really going to make 5000 cars in 2012. Unless Elon likes the quality so much that he ramps up even sooner than Nov.
While Tesla isn't having cash flow issues now, it is a worry - hence the talk in the conference call about "cushion." If there's a bigger hiccup in production, it could be trouble for them. My guess is a capital raise is a quarter away, and that they'll try to do it with a private placement, rather than just issuing additional stock. Maybe Toyota or Daimler or Panasonic is willing to throw more money at Tesla for a bigger piece of the pie.
The DOE loan agreement was amended to require Tesla to set up a restricted cash account for the first three repayment installments. Those amounts are shown on the balance sheet. During the conference call, Elon intimated that he might make the first installment that is due in December early. He might as well since the cash has already been restricted and it would be good PR and could give the share price a pop.
Steph
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