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OK, going to try to not derail the thread too much and draw the wrath of the mods...

The episode of The Daily Show with Jon Stewart where he tore Cramer apart is a classic. Showed him for what he really is which appears to me mostly show and little substance. He was recommending, like many others I guess, companies that went under in 2008 even right before they went under.

Jon Stewart's show is one of mostly show and little substance. There are plenty of incredibly sophisticated portfolio managers that dislike what Cramer teaches, you don't need to stoop down to a talk show host to find a reason to not listen to Cramer. IMO this is as bad as taking advice on whether or not to buy a Tesla from Top Gear.

That said, there are a lot of people worth listening to that like Cramer a lot; and there is no denying that he has done fantastically well trading stocks on the average in his life. Does he get it wrong sometimes when he picks specific companies? Absolutely, and he'll be the first to admit it; but on the whole, I believe he knows what he is talking about, and there is a lot to be learned from the strategies that he teaches on his show and in his books (for instance, those of you who have trouble wrapping your head around options might want to pick up a copy of Getting Back to Even). There is certainly a lot of showmanship in the way he presents that material, but that just makes these incredibly boring topics all the easier to consume and therefore accessible to the general public.

I've read a lot of investing and personal finance material since graduating college, and learned a lot more the hard way. While I wouldn't say that reading and watching Cramer is the be-all-and-end-all of investing, it is what got me interested in the first place and was a terrific "investing 101". I haven't watched his show in a quite some time now, but there is no doubt that much of what I still do today has evolved from the basic strategies I first adopted from him. When I put aside the buzzers and silly costumes, and reflect on the core principles of investing that he teaches: diversification; buy and homework; sell on the way up, buy on the way down; no market orders; believe in the fundamentals, pay attention to the technicals; etc., etc. I find that I still largely agree with them, and they have served me very, very well.

My problem with Cramer as it pertains to TSLA is simply that I think he has dismissed it out of hand without doing the work that he himself prescribes. I think this comes from his bias toward Nat Gas as a transportation fuel (he seems absolutely convinced this is the future). I don't really blame him for not doing the work though, TSLA is small and arguably not worth his time, but then I think he should admit that he doesn't know enough about the company to make a call on it and let it go (as he has done countless times with other small speculative companies that callers ask about).

I think that if he did the homework that he taught me to do, he'd come to the same conclusion that I came to, and he'd recommend buying it.
 
Jon Stewart's show is one of mostly show and little substance. There are plenty of incredibly sophisticated portfolio managers that dislike what Cramer teaches, you don't need to stoop down to a talk show host to find a reason to not listen to Cramer. IMO this is as bad as taking advice on whether or not to buy a Tesla from Top Gear.

Stewart often points out hypocrisy with humor and sarcasm, doesn't make it any less valid. As you say, Stewart is simply pointing out what many others think about Cramer as well. You seem to have more of a problem with the messenger than the message in this case.
 
OK here goes; I have a background in large corporate management and leveraged financing but I'm going to keep this is as simple as possible (and apologies to anyone who thinks this is too simplistic)....

These are the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP):

1. Revenue is the top line of your P&L and you subtract your costs until you have a net profit or loss.
2. Any business can easily sustain repeated paper losses so long as cash flow is sufficient to keep paying the bills. Sources of cash flow are many and include loans, deferring payment of expenses, cash from sales of course, and nice people who put down deposits against future purchases.
3. Deposits are not revenue as long as they are fully refundable. The company receiving the deposit hasn't provided any goods or services and has a liability to return the money if requested. However, as an interest free loan it is a nice additional source of cash flow.

Now in Tesla's case:

1. Q1 net loss of $79million (some of which may have been depreciation, taxes etc.), could simplistically be taken as Tesla burning through that much cash. Well, that's also not unusual in a company investing heavily in R&D (ever looked at Bio-Tech stocks?) as well as capital investments and short-term costs resulting from factory preparation.
2. However, Tesla finished the quarter with $387m cash available. So even if nothing changed and they didn't sell any Model S's they could carry on at the same rate for another 15 months or so. However, the R&D costs will decline significantly and the factory prep costs will fade; so even if the rate of Model S sales would be very slow and overheads weren't being amortized Tesla has enough cash to keep the business going for probably a couple of years.
3. Tesla does have a good deposit book and contracts for drive trains and other components as well as other sources of revenue, so suggesting that cash flow might be an issue is plain nonsense. It would be an issue if deposits were being reduced but revenue was not coming in.

The deposit scenario:

1. Tesla has $40k of my money as a deposit on a Model S. I now signed an MVPA for $100k and $10k of my money is now non-refundable. Tesla can take that $10k, book it as revenue and reduce the balance sheet liabilities (note that's important later on!).
2. Tesla delivers my car for $100k (minus the $10 already paid) and I pay them $60k plus the remaining $30k of my deposit. They can book the $90k as revenue and reduce their balance sheet liabilities by a further $30k.
3. Do this enough times and the P&L suddenly starts to look much healthier, losses are reduced. Do it on a ramped up scenario and they'll start to show profits.

Now how about those statements from JP and friends:



OK, thats fair enough. But then he says:



That's twisting things pretty ridiculously. Yes, they will book $100k in revenue, but they are receiving an additional $60k in cash flow. JP suggests that Tesla only gets $60k towards the $75k cost of building the car but the reality is that the cost of the car includes fixed and variable overheads and Tesla has already used some of the $40k deposit to cover those costs. In P&L terms they are receiving $100k for the car and not $60k. Does it crimp cash flow? No because they have received an additional $60k! Depending on how Tesla actually accounts for all their overheads and fixed costs (this is where I don't want to get into too much irrelevant detail) they might end up reducing their currently available cash pile of $387m, but it's worth noting that holding too much cash is poor financial management, you really want to use it (invest in future business), pay down debt (give it back to DoE) or give it back to shareholders (dividends or stock re-purchases).

Then JP's sparring partner weighs in:



Nonsense. Losses to date were driven by R&D...in other words a substantial amount of one-offs. Here's the note from Tesla's Q1 shareholder letter:



A good point to note is that if Tesla continues such a high rate of R&D costs then they deserve to get beaten up; but you can read for yourself that many of the costs were incurred one-time. The post goes on:



Common sense says that if Tesla has $387 in cash at the end of Q1 and $113.3m in reservation deposits it's not actually possible that all of Tesla's working capital comes from reservation holders. Also, if your customers were giving you $100m as in interest-free loan wouldn't you use it as working capital? That's just smart business and Tesla has stated that they use deposits for working capital. That said, in reality it doesn't matter a fig where the working capital comes from so long as Tesla has liquidity. In their spring 2012 investor presentation Tesla showed $493m of total liquidity.

You'd imagine that a reputable, financially savvy writer (journalist?) would correct those 2 pieces of nonsense that were posted in response to his article, right? Wrong:



At the end of Q1 Tesla Total Stockholders Equity was $154.8m; Q2 will probably not be pretty but JP ignores that costs will come down (see above on R&D and factory prep costs) and that as reservation payments become converted to revenue then liabilities will be reduced (remember back earlier in this post?), thereby improving the balance sheet. I very much doubt that Stockholders Equity will fall below $100m (as if it actually mattered BTW). Tesla had an end Q1 working capital of $123.2m but also noted in their Form 10-Q in May that:



So does anyone other than JP care that working capital might fall below $100m? Tesla has plenty of room to play before anything gets critical.

Finally, JP's "going concern" comment is really scaremongering. Sure auditors must look at this especially in a company with heavy investment costs based on future revenue; but Tesla has enough cash in hand even if losses continued unabated for 12 months, and they have plenty of liquidity moving forward, plus they have a reservation list of some 11,000 people waiting to buy their cars as well as future contracts with Toyota and Mercedes. The only disclosures or risk warnings necessary will be those that are already in the public domain.

In short, Tesla has plenty of cash and liquidity even if losses continued at prior levels (which they shouldn't), they have a great potential income stream, and they have so much cash in hand it's not surprising it's been floated that they could start early repayment of the DoE loans. Is there risk in here? You bet, it's been heavy upfront investment and there are all sorts of things that could go wrong. Q2 might not be pretty, but just wait for Q3 and I suspect we'll all be smiling.

NigelM, Thank-you for this.

I replied with quote on purpose, very factual, clear and concise. The only thing I would add is the 5000 & 20000 cars numbers are "Very Conservative Numbers" as quotes many time by Elon. One other thing, watch the reservations, they will go up in flames (like the Falcon 9) when people can touch it, drive it, feel it, kiss it...
 
One other thing....

Tesla is very conservative accounting-wise by putting so much of R&D to expense. One would think it would show a better view on it's financial situation if they were capitalizing R&D. Intangible assets like patents and processes come from R&D.

Change this over conservative accounting rule and you have a very different P&L picture.

In fact, they are conservative in everything they say and do. I like that. They are pros.
 
$55 In my wildest squeeze scenario. Otherwise, I'll just stay long, tyvm. (I currently hold 3000 shares, this order is only for a portion.)

Again. Laughable (yes, I see some of you doubled over :) ) to base your investment decisions on my actions.

My squeeze scenario is much higher then that, my preposterous sale order will be in the system this week, I am not saying what my number is ;)

And one thing I will try to remember is not to push the sale button before a good 40M share traded after the start of the squeeze, that number is for 25M shorts and let's say 15M of regular action. It could take some time, 10 days at 4M? 20 days of 2M? 4 days of 10M?

We will get all emotional but we have to hold. Be patient.

It's coming on Monday, that's my guess.
 
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One other thing....

Tesla is very conservative accounting-wise by putting so much of R&D to expense. One would think it would show a better view on it's financial situation if they were capitalizing R&D. Intangible assets like patents and processes come from R&D.

Change this over conservative accounting rule and you have a very different P&L picture.

In fact, they are conservative in everything they say and do. I like that. They are pros.

Explanation: If a company can capitalize R&D costs then it comes off the P&L (suddenly the profit situation improves!) and moves to the balance sheet as an asset (hey, the balance sheet looks better too!).

IMO (and there is some certain amount of greyness in the regs), US GAAP doesn't really allow R&D costs to be capitalized. You can't capitalize those expenses because a failed concept would have no future value, and research has indeterminate outcomes. Arguably with a wait list of ~11,000 reservation holders Tesla could point to future value but if it started to look too much like a massaging of the figures then they would take serious heat from the analysts. You can capitalize (some) development investments after the concept has been proven but then you have to figure out amortization and accounting within product costs.

I'm with *Steph* on this one and definitely prefer a conservative approach. This could be a source of hidden value for TSLA in the future......Major R&D expenses are already absorbed so volume sales should provide fantastic margins.
 
Bonnie1194, the reason my number is extremely high (I mean very very very high) is because of computers....

In the beginning of a squeeze, let's say at 45$, automatic buys kick-in, they will snap all programed sales. But what if the only pre-programed sale left is mine? Computer, dumb as a chicken, will pick-up my shares.

Other than that, I'm waiting patiently.
 
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Explanation: If a company can capitalize R&D costs then it comes off the P&L (suddenly the profit situation improves!) and moves to the balance sheet as an asset (hey, the balance sheet looks better too!).

IMO (and there is some certain amount of greyness in the regs), US GAAP doesn't really allow R&D costs to be capitalized. You can't capitalize those expenses because a failed concept would have no future value, and research has indeterminate outcomes. Arguably with a wait list of ~11,000 reservation holders Tesla could point to future value but if it started to look too much like a massaging of the figures then they would take serious heat from the analysts. You can capitalize (some) development investments after the concept has been proven but then you have to figure out amortization and accounting within product costs.

I'm with *Steph* on this one and definitely prefer a conservative approach. This could be a source of hidden value for TSLA in the future......Major R&D expenses are already absorbed so volume sales should provide fantastic margins.

I'm not saying they could or they should capitalize. As an investor, I look at numbers and I like to see everything on the expense side, that is future value.
 
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