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TSLA Investor Discussions
- Thread starter Fr23shjive
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CyberDutchie
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After-hours buzz: Tesla Motors was initiated with a "buy" rating by Lazard Capital, with a price target of $42.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Sorry, we are getting out of context now. This saying is only said of insiders, which is what we were talking about at the time. There's no way Kimbal Musk is just hedging a short position. By extension the same can be said of most any insider buying.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Just heard back from Morgan Stanley that it is OK to share the e-mail content. So here is the research note they sent on Monday:
Tesla Motors Inc.: 1Q12: Elon Shows Making Cars ain’t Rocket Science
Adam Jonas, CFA – Morgan Stanley
May 10, 2012
Tesla continues to show its ability to manage expectations and deliver on what it promises. 1Q cash burn was higher than we expected, but the follow through on Model S reservations and launch timing carried the quarter. Big risks remain, but each quarter demonstrates the company’s viability.
1Q results saw mostly positive developments. The key ingredients for a Tesla quarter are (1) reservation momentum, (2) launch timing/milestones and (3) cash consumption. Here’s how we rate Tesla on each:
1.Model S reservations/mth up 16% QoQ and 6% above our est. Impressive given no new store openings and first non-refundable deposits.
2.Launch timing pulled ahead to June from July. Only implies a few ‘tens of units’ in 2Q, but suggests improved visibility on the launch.
3.The financial position deteriorated $28m more than we expected on lower profit and higher capex.
We are raising our Model S unit forecast: Our FY12 forecast rises to 3,000 from 2,000 units (20 in 2Q, 980 in 3Q and 2,000 in 4Q). For FY13 and FY14 we add 1,000 for a total of 16,000 and 19,000 units respectively. Our below-guidance forecasts imply a perfect launch quality.
In our opinion, Tesla could use a few hundred million of extra cash in their coffers. On our calculations, Tesla’s gross liquidity reaches a trough of $146m by the end of 2013. This doesn’t leave much room for unforeseen error either within or outside the company’s control. Combined with the positive early reception to the Model X and the apparent acceleration of the Gen 3 into 2016 (vs. our current 2017 estimates), the company may be better off in the long term raising more capital as an insurance policy for the unknown.
smorgasbord
Active Member
Bold emphasis is mine. Can someone explain what they're saying? They obviously know Tesla is saying 5000 units in FY12, yet they're just saying 3000. So, are they discounting 2000 because they think Tesla won't deliver on product quality?
CyberDutchie
Active Member
I think what they are saying is that with the high quality standard that Tesla is pursuing, Morgan Stanley believes that they can only deliver 3000 cars this year.
I'll e-mail Adam Jonas and ask him to explain what he is saying, and will let you know if/what he replies.
erha
Member
I follow the stock price pretty much every single day, and it seems like TSLA stock price changes about the double of the Nasdaq index. If Nasdaq is down 1 %, TSLA is often down about 2 %. However, yesterday was kind of special because Nasdaq was down while TSLA actually was up. I think that is a major change, and I bet this is just the start of several good weeks for Tesla.
Steph
Member
I'm back!
Now an urban citizen, I moved on the Montréal island and I have a garage waiting for my model X to arrive!
Been very busy in the last month, didn't watch market action very much, did not sell, did not buy. I am very surprised the stock is not up with all good info we are getting and with amazing no flaws launch of F9 & Dragon. IMHO next week will be huge, both for all the surprises we will get (and I think we will get massive surprises) and the possible short squeeze coming our way. Shorts are also back with a vengeance with almost 26M shares shorted on 5/31, this whole thing will now start to get very interesting.
BTW, I still believe we did not see the real interior yet
Cheers from the city!
Now an urban citizen, I moved on the Montréal island and I have a garage waiting for my model X to arrive!
Been very busy in the last month, didn't watch market action very much, did not sell, did not buy. I am very surprised the stock is not up with all good info we are getting and with amazing no flaws launch of F9 & Dragon. IMHO next week will be huge, both for all the surprises we will get (and I think we will get massive surprises) and the possible short squeeze coming our way. Shorts are also back with a vengeance with almost 26M shares shorted on 5/31, this whole thing will now start to get very interesting.
BTW, I still believe we did not see the real interior yet
Cheers from the city!
I'm just going to say the obvious. We have no idea what makes TSLA tick. Market's up, TSLA is down, and there's absolutely no new bad news.
Analyst Upgrades: BBY, TSLA, and Z | Trading Floor Blog | Schaeffer's Investment Research
It's simply volatile.
Analyst Upgrades: BBY, TSLA, and Z | Trading Floor Blog | Schaeffer's Investment Research
It's simply volatile.
I'm back!
Now an urban citizen, I moved on the Montréal island and I have a garage waiting for my model X to arrive!
View attachment 6743
Been very busy in the last month, didn't watch market action very much, did not sell, did not buy. I am very surprised the stock is not up with all good info we are getting and with amazing no flaws launch of F9 & Dragon. IMHO next week will be huge, both for all the surprises we will get (and I think we will get massive surprises) and the possible short squeeze coming our way. Shorts are also back with a vengeance with almost 26M shares shorted on 5/31, this whole thing will now start to get very interesting.
BTW, I still believe we did not see the real interior yet
Cheers from the city!
Wow 26M shares short - that's surprising! Not sure what these guys are thinking?
Following Tesla and SpaceX has been an interest of mine for quite some time, since it fits nicely with my personal experience as I have degrees in mechanical, electrical and computer engineering, B.A.Sc. (Mech) & Ph.D. (Electrical & Computer) and have been active in these areas for 30 years. From everything I've seen I can honestly say that Elon is the real deal, he is absolutely authentic. He is a very talented engineer and when he speaks he makes sense. From a technology point of view, I would just never short this guy.
This leaves business, marketing and selling. Maybe the shorts know something I don't? However, my hunch is that Tesla will sell these vehicles at a rate better than what is expected. George B. appears to have a handle on this. Also the buyers seem to have multiple motivations so owners are not only luxury car types, but also greens, early adopter etc... I am also very impressed that Tesla seems to have an answer to basically any objection that has been put out there. Impressive since the critics (i.e. big oil & big auto) are very powerful and have a high stake at preserving the status quo. Here's to disruptive technology and to the ingenuity of Silicon Valley. I wouldn't want to be a short in this game!
I agree with Steph it's going to get very interesting soon.
Steph
Member
They are not thinking IMHO, they are playing a very dangerous game, they can loose big. very very big.
They have to buy 26M shares. They are betting for the company failure. When it becomes clear failure is not a possible outcome, they will rush to the exit like rats leave boats. There is not enough life vests. Smart one will the the first to leave, the others will be stuck there.
When will be the sentiment change? Next week? Possible.
I don't know, why would it? The info is up, and no one belives they will fail to deliver the first cars next week. If there's some surprises, they have to be huge, and I can't see that coming. The only thing that could make the stock go up is sales figures.
The stock may even go down big time depending on the election in Greece this sunday ... well not just the stock, the whole world economy might just ... well I bought some silvercoins besides my tesla stocks just in case ...
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
I'm back!
...
BTW, I still believe we did not see the real interior yet
Welcome back, Steph! You are really taunting us again, aren't you?! A couple of Founders cars are already out there but, yes, we haven't seen shots of the interior of #1 or #2.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
I asked the Morgan Stanley analyst to clarify his statement and here is his response:
We have assumed Tesla prioritizes quality of each unit over achieving their volume target.
The first few thousand units will be the most highly contented and complex specs delivered to their most important clients and to the media. They have to be perfect. We allowed some room for error for a slightly slower launch. Of course, a 2k unit miss looks huge vs the small numbers, but it's not so bad in our opinion.
I think if the car is perfect (ie - no recalls), the stock will be higher.
I think we should not underestimate the disconnect between the performance of the company and the market's confidence in that company. I believe the stock will go up in the long run, but I don't expect that it will suddenly shoot way up. It will continue to bounce up and down on the vagaries of the market. The market is dominated by speculators, day traders, and technical traders, none of whom believe in the company's vision or care about the quality or early sales of the Model S, and many of whom believe the company cannot succeed because they buy into all the usual FUD about electric cars. Analysts who look at what the company is doing, rather than just the arcane statistics of the stock's historical price, are giving it a target of around $42, which when you get right down to it, is just $4 over its recent high point. I predict real movement only after it becomes clear that Tesla is close to paying off the government loan and will begin turning a profit.
Steph
Member
We have a very unique situation here. WE know how Tesla will succeed. WE know how great it is. WE know Elon is changing the world. The world doesn't know that just yet.
When the word will be out, the car is real, they can touch it, drive it, when the news is front page on all main stream medias on Monday 6/25. All surprises revealed. This will be a shock to the world.
We don't know if it will go nuts, but on 6/25, I will be watching.
Steph
Member
Another article from John Petersen:
http://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2012/06/tesla_motors_automaker_or_graphic_novel.html
Is this guy real? Anyone knows this guy.
If I was a market manipulator, I would do exactly what he is doing: convince idiots on shorting Tesla while buying some cheep shares. Doing this does work, it's an old trick.
Tesla is the perfect candidate for manipulation: low number of shares, volatile, lots of unknown and a reveal date. The trick is to keep the shorters in until the reveal date (6/22). If the news is good enough, the shorts will try to exit in an uncontrolled fashion and he will make tons of money on that week (6/25)
In a sense, this guy is setting the stage for us. Thank-you Mr P, I couldn't do better myself.
http://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2012/06/tesla_motors_automaker_or_graphic_novel.html
Is this guy real? Anyone knows this guy.
If I was a market manipulator, I would do exactly what he is doing: convince idiots on shorting Tesla while buying some cheep shares. Doing this does work, it's an old trick.
Tesla is the perfect candidate for manipulation: low number of shares, volatile, lots of unknown and a reveal date. The trick is to keep the shorters in until the reveal date (6/22). If the news is good enough, the shorts will try to exit in an uncontrolled fashion and he will make tons of money on that week (6/25)
In a sense, this guy is setting the stage for us. Thank-you Mr P, I couldn't do better myself.
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