TSLA Investor Discussions

[Enadler]

I would not get in at this point.

I think what is happening here is that the market has slowly come to realize what you just said. By the time we get to the actual announcement, I don't think there is going to be much more of a run-up. The market is pricing this information in already. With every passing day, the probability that there are more gains ahead as opposed to a sell-off gets slimmer and slimmer. I'd wait for the inevitable profit taking before stepping in.

That said, if you are really paranoid about missing a big move, I'd say go ahead and buy some; but by "some" I mean something on the order of 20% of the total position you would like to have. If you end up buying at a near-term high (which I think is pretty likely) then you'll have plenty of cash to add to your position when we sell off. On the other hand, if I'm wrong and the stock never looks back from here, you'd at least have some exposure to that.

Thanks Citizen-T you confirm what I have been thinking!

 

[CyberDutchie]

A very positive report may provide Netflix like response (their short percentage of float half of tsla). Scared to be out and scared to stay in

I think there is less of a chance of a surprise ala Netflix. Every detail about Tesla is being researched/discussed at length and critical information like reservations and deliveries can be extracted from TMC. It's hard to see how this information is not already being priced into the stock value right now.

 

[Grendal]

Production most likely a lot higher than 400, maybe 500 or 600. Management statements that company is at full factory capacity very vague without knowing what that is. This site has been useful in past for following stats but less so now.

That sounds a little ambitious. On the delivery and sequencing thread kindog just got his VIN of 4386. We are three and a half weeks into the new year and that number seems only about 1200 more than the end of last year. I'd say, at this moment, they are hitting their stride of full production. I'll toss out half a week production for the 60 kWh changeover/addition. I know they will increase more but I don't think it has happened quite yet. I'm very happy with full production - it's a hell of an accomplishment.

 

[K Hall]

I am adding to my position daily. The stock has a lot of upside to its current value with production at capacity. This is just my opinion but I do reccomend that you read the analyst opionions of value. There are some short term risk for a pull back near term, little risk within the next 12 months.

On up days I buy and on down days I buy a lot.

Good Luck!

 

[gregincal]

That sounds a little ambitious. On the delivery and sequencing thread kindog just got his VIN of 4386. We are three and a half weeks into the new year and that number seems only about 1200 more than the end of last year. I'd say, at this moment, they are hitting their stride of full production. I'll toss out half a week production for the 60 kWh changeover/addition. I know they will increase more but I don't think it has happened quite yet. I'm very happy with full production - it's a hell of an accomplishment.

The factory was shut down for a week at the beginning of January. However, in general I agree that looking at reservation numbers to guess production is useless, looking at VINs issued is the only way to go.

 

[Fr23shjive]

The factory was shut down for a week at the beginning of January. However, in general I agree that looking at reservation numbers to guess production is useless, looking at VINs issued is the only way to go.

Why was the factory closed?

 

[Krugerrand]

Why was the factory closed?

Holiday for the employees.

 

[wstuff]

I think you have to be a little careful judging production rates, we know they are batching CRAZY WILD, Al Sherman just got his notification email that he is almost done and ready to ship, he is in the 15000 somewhere. I saw a post of a factory tour that timed a car every ten minutes, thats 6 an hr , 48 a day, and 240 per week / shift, if they have two shifts thats 480 but I don't think i see two perfect shifts running, lets put a web cam accross the street at the ensd of the assay line and count, :wink: r

 

[firstinflite]

If you're thinking about buying or selling TSLA stocks here is my input. I've been playing the spread on this stock for awhile to calculate with 95% precision. TSLA has seen solid gains the last week, at its height, TSLA came up to about $37.50 yesterday with volumes at around 1.9 million the last couple days. Today, while being up throughout most of the day, the stock began to dip below $37, more alarming is that TSLA's after hour trading saw an even lower price! Additionally, volume today was dramatically lower compared to the last couple days at around 1.2 million. IMO the scared shorts have mostly covered, and investors are starting to cash out. I sold mine at above $37. Very likely will open much lower on Monday morning (I may be wrong, but again my track record so far is about 95% accuracy with about 20 trades). If you're thinking about jumping in, be patient sit back and wait a couple days before making a move. Self control is your best friend, don't be haste, sit back and observe...

I will definitely have to rebuy no matter where the price is before Feb. 6th, as JB Straubel will be making his keystone speech in front of about 50 investment firms and giving TEST drives for MODEL S..... FEB 11th will definitely bring good news for sure... but keep in mind we only need 1 out of the 50 investment firm to buy up stocks and the shorts are toast! Combine that with positive 4th Q news on production will definitely be brutal for shorts... make a move before Friday next week IMO

 

[Beckler]

@firstinflite Thanks for all the info. I sold mine too at 37.6--just by luck, got the highest price! Still it's a good experience for my first stock trade ever Seeing as how I bought it at about 35.5, I made some money. Still it feels too much like gambling, but at least with info. like yours we can pretend it's not. How low would you expect it to go next week?

 

[ppl]

@firstinflite Thanks for all the info. I sold mine too at 37.6--just by luck, got the highest price! Still it's a good experience for my first stock trade ever Seeing as how I bought it at about 35.5, I made some money. Still it feels too much like gambling, but at least with info. like yours we can pretend it's not. How low would you expect it to go next week?

It does remain to be seen whether you sold it at highest price yet. Would consider waiting at least 2 trading days to make that claim. It had gone up so much over week I expected pull back for profit tatake before weekend but a penny was pretty small drop. Recommended to first he now sell short since he knows its dropping. Maybe you should too

 

[Beckler]

True yes, I just meant before it started to drop off that day...

 

[DriverOne]

Well done of your first trade. It's always good to make a gain, large or small. I do not recommend you try shorting stocks (I think the other poster was being somewhat facetious). There's no reliable way to tell whether a stock will go up or down on any particular day. If you believe in Tesla and that they will succeed, go long and hold, hold, hold. The quick buck is tempting but steady compounding is, IMO, more reliable.

 

[ppl]

Short interest data out for jan 15th. Essentially unchanged. Greater than 50% of float short. Volume this week up but not enough to decrease short interest significantly should be interesting next three weeks. Funny how no one sits on fence. Shorts just as convinced as longs but answers will be coming out. I suspect conf call will settle issues. Which ever way it goes I recognize someone loses when someone gains. Hope there won't be bragging either way

 

[JRP3]

Except shorts are hoping a company fails, a product is removed from the market, thousands of people lose their jobs, and a dream dies. I expect plenty of bragging and will gleefully partake in it when longs are vindicated. :love:

 

[dmckinstry]

Except shorts are hoping a company fails, a product is removed from the market, thousands of people lose their jobs, and a dream dies. I expect plenty of bragging and will gleefully partake in it when longs are vindicated. :love:

For exactly your reasons, I hope the shorts get what's coming to them, and we reap the benefits.

 

[kenliles]

For exactly your reasons, I hope the shorts get what's coming to them, and we reap the benefits.

put another way, I hope they take it in the shorts

 

[brianman]

Except shorts are hoping a company fails, a product is removed from the market, thousands of people lose their jobs, and a dream dies

Significant and financially dangerous over-generalization, IMO.

 

[JRP3]

I guess you are referring to short term trades? But, dangerous?

 

[brianman]

I guess you are referring to short term trades? But, dangerous?

Clarification: assuming malicious intent from all short sellers is financially dangerous.

Firstly it means your mental model incomplete. Secondly it likely means you're more emotionally involved than you should be for a financial transation.